Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Dr. Strangelove]

These are now all post-Comey letter...the initial reaction to the letter has been eliminated as well.

4 Way Polls
ABC: Clinton +5 (11/1-11/4)
NBC: Clinton +4 (11/3-11/5)
Reuters: Clinton +4 (10/31-11/4)
Fox: Clinton +2 (11/1-11/3)
Gravis: Clinton +2 (11/1-11/2)
Marist: Clinton +1 (11/1-11/3)
Rasmussen: Tie (11/1-11/3)
IBD: Trump +1 (11/2-11/5)

2 Way Polls
NBC: Clinton +5 (11/3-11/5)
ABC: Clinton +5 (11/1-11/4)
Reuters: Clinton +4 (10/31-11/4)
Marist: Clinton +2 (11/1-11/3)
IBD: Clinton +1 (11/2-11/5)
Fox: Clinton +1 (11/1-11/3)
Gravis: Tie (10/31)
LA Times: Trump +5 (10/30-11/5)

[CGVT]

Nate Silver still has it at about 64% Clinton. After a high of 88% after the third debate it dropped a bunch after Comey's bullshit disclosure and has been pretty steady for a while now.

[Hannibal]

Electoral maps:

my honest prediction:

[Hannibal]

Nate Silver's latest prediction:

[Hannibal]

The Hillary blowout scenario -- the silent majority rejects Trump overwhelmingly and all of the swing votes go Hillary's way:

[Hannibal]

The Trump blowout scenario: The polls are missing a huge population of angry voters that will enthusastically turn out in droves for Trump:

[Hannibal]

IMHO that is the realistic range of scenarios. My expectation is for a very late call for Hillary after some close races in places like Pennsylvania and Nevada are 95% counted.

[Cody_Russell]

Who knows... voter turnout will determine this. More people that vote, more likely Clinton wins.
My prediction is still a Clinton win as she gets around 47%, Trump 43-44% nationally.

I would trust Nate Silver more than most forecasts... funny how Huffington post had a lengthy article saying how their 99% Clinton will win probability is more likely than Silver. Written by a guy that doesn't know shit about statistics.
I have Minor in statistics... fun stuff.

[Da Geezer]

froot and Jon:

I saw this on TV this morning during an interview with Ami ("Ami of the Street"). He was immediately asked if the responses were "cherry-picked". He said every black person he interviewed had the same opinion, and every white person he interviewed. He claimed to have interviewed 20 of each.

[ame="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrBxZGWCdgs"]Ami Horowitz: How white liberals really view black voters - YouTube[/ame]

Please note the adjectives the Black folks use to describe the white folk.

[Da Geezer]

CGVT:

Nate Silver still has it at about 64% Clinton. After a high of 88% after the third debate it dropped a bunch after Comey's bullshit disclosure and has been pretty steady for a while now.

That matches pretty well with the trend of the bookmakers in Britain. They have it 36% for Trump, 64% Hillary. The trend in the last four days(all post-Comey) has been from 15% Trump to the current 36% Trump.

I heard an interview with Scott Brown who said, basically, that it is legal to bus voters into NH from other states as long as they establish "domicile" meaning staying overnight and having a receipt from a hotel. I think any map that projects NH to Trump is probably wrong. The NH polls are using NH residents, and lots of non-residents will be bussed in. This is the advantage of Hillary's "ground game".

[Dr. Strangelove]

LOL @ Dems busing in thousands from Massachusetts to steal the election in NH

[CGVT]

LOL @ Dems busing in thousands from Massachusetts to steal the election in NH

Yeah. I've just learned to ignore silly shit like that.

[Dr. Strangelove]

It's from Scott Brown. He served two years in the Senate once! He's an expert on losing elections in New England!

[Dr. Strangelove]

CBS poll in Ohio shows Trump +1. Columbus Dispatch shows Clinton +1.

It's not decided here. Will be very, very interesting.

[Dr. Strangelove]

This possibly shows why the LA Times has been so friendly to Trump all year. It assumes Clinton has a mere +3 edge with Hispanics.

[ame]https://twitter.com/LatinoDecisions/status/795299337144176640[/ame]