Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Dr. Strangelove]

I question if he has really had a great 'victory' in eastern Ukraine. The Donbas is a money pit, and they have been desperately trying to get Kiev to acknowledge and accept the so-called local elections so that Ukraine takes over the administration of the region again. Because the Kremlin has been dumping vast amounts of money on a worthless region that resembles Youngstown on its worst day.

To save face he cannot simply abandon the Donbas. But he very much wants to be rid of it.

[hack]

FWIW, IMO Russia's overall foreign-policy objective is extremely easy to understand: preserve the system in which Russia is perceived as a major world player, and to be at the table when big decisions are made. It wants to be perceived as a peer of the US, China, UK and Germany.

Understanding its tactics, IMO, is far more difficult. I don't get the Assange thing, unless Assange is angling for asylum. Apart from what appear to be financial relations between Trump and Russian capital, on paper what you say makes sense. But there's also the idea out there that Putin thinks he would be able to sit down with a President Trump and hammer out deals, after which they call a press conference and announce a decided course of action on the issue of the day. Putin wants to be seen as that kind of global power, and Trump is likely to throw process out and do just the same. barred from the ability to do that with Obama, he has acted like an obstacle instead.
Hillary is more likely to send her Secy of State to parlay with Lavrov and yammer about human rights as a CYA move, rather than treat Putin like a peer. More like Obama than what we guess Trump might do.

All this is of course conjecture. but here's the latest version of it. I think this piece is good: http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-d...AyMTEzNTI1MQS2.

[hack]

This is a good point although I'd say the Russian economy is in the tank because, well, the Russian economy.

I tend to fall on the side of the effectiveness of sanctions over the long haul to extract behavior from countries with national interests different than those of the West that are more acceptable to the West.

I can't remember where I saw this, maybe in the article on Turkey that Hack linked us to, but it was about a cargo plane enroute to Tehran that diverted into Turkey for mechanical reasons. The aircraft listed cargo as some innocuous thing but on inspection the cargo was 300 million worth of gold bullion. The gold was enroute to the Iranian Mullahs to help them sidestep the impact of sanctions.

There's many stories about how the Iranians got oil to the market place to sell it, a lot of that money going to surrogates who were acting on orders from Tehran to further Iranian regional interests in Syria and Iraq.

The world is a dangerous place and I'm not 100% convinced sanctions are as effective as they are made out to be. But I don't like the alternative as one false military move, one misstep, in the Middle East or in Eastern Europe could result in a nuclear exchange - most likely on a tactical level with the weapon being used to contaminate territory and prevent troop movement.

1. I think you're talking about Reza Zarrab, the Iranian/Turkish conduit. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/03/ny...yers.html?_r=0

2. I think the sanctions on Iran were unusually effective because for the first time they included an effective shutting out of a country from the global financial system, through the SWIFT network for international money transfers.

[Dr. Strangelove]

On another note, Putin invaded Georgia on George W. Bush's watch. We pretty much did nothing.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Trump is attacking Paul Ryan again

[ame]https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/787756849453989889[/ame]

[ame]https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/787758668565581824[/ame]

[hack]

On another note, Putin invaded Georgia on George W. Bush's watch. We pretty much did nothing.

Not sure what anybody can or should do. We don't have an enforceable system, which IMO is a main reason why it's in transition.

[Dr. Strangelove]

[ame]https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/787763497308418052[/ame]

[ame]https://twitter.com/NCGOP/status/787765546909569024[/ame]

[ame]https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/787782613633208320[/ame]

[Dr. Strangelove]

Russia Today has had all its bank accounts in the UK frozen. And Julian Assange's internet access has been cut off by a "state actor" per Wikileaks. The beginning of retaliation against Russia?

[entropy]

So..... we can shut off Asange's internet access but can't close down ISIS propaganda videos.


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[CGVT]

Trying to shut down the ISIS videos is a game of whack a mole

[entropy]

Trying to shut down the ISIS videos is a game of whack a mole

I get that.. but there should be a lot of people hitting that mole


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[entropy]

Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

Regardless... I'm against limiting freedom of speech. I just an amused by situation.


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[froot loops]

I agree, Jeff. It is the Clinton campaign that couples the Russians and Trump, and no one in the media is questioning the proposition.

Why wouldn't Putin want another 4-8 years of the kind of foreign policy that gave him these victories? Trump, in particular, and Republicans in general, stand for spending more on the military. Trump criticizes the current top brass, and says he would replace them with less-political generals. I fail to see how this helps the Russians

What kind of post is this? For crying out loud read a paper. It is not a difficult concept. Trump has advisors and campaign managers on the Russian payroll. His business interests are connected to the Russians, it shouldn't be so hard to get this.

[Dr. Strangelove]

It's all rigged!!

[ame]https://twitter.com/JeffersonObama/status/788006090621411328[/ame]

[CGVT]

Nate Silver has 87.3 percent probability of a Clinton win. I think that is the highest I have seen.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

There are going to be a lot of shocked Alabamians and many cries about the the Liberal Media and a rigged election.