Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[iam416]

Hanni:

Do you have the matriculation/diaspora numbers for Hispanics? The bulk of hispanics arrive in California, a state that Rs have no chance of winning. Whether they lose by 20 points or 30 points is of no consequence. The question is how they move throughout the country and affect outcomes. So, I can see Arizona being a state that can swing. Maybe New Mexico, too.

But, e.g., in Ohio and Pennsylvania, are we seeing significant upticks in hispanic populations?

[froot loops]

By the time McCain ran the damage had been done. You speak as if they've done the best they could but they just can't win that shate. There is a reason why it's fallen, Rove tried immigration reform after the 2004 election and it went down in flames due to his party. That is damaging, calling immigrants rapists and criminals doesn't help.

[iam416]

Unfortunately, allowing illegal immigrants to stay in the country even after they've been arrested on multiple occasions for a crime does help with the hispanic vote. So, you know, it creates an issue for the likes of Trump.

[Hannibal]

Hanni:

Do you have the matriculation/diaspora numbers for Hispanics? The bulk of hispanics arrive in California, a state that Rs have no chance of winning. Whether they lose by 20 points or 30 points is of no consequence. The question is how they move throughout the country and affect outcomes. So, I can see Arizona being a state that can swing. Maybe New Mexico, too.

But, e.g., in Ohio and Pennsylvania, are we seeing significant upticks in hispanic populations?

Here is a map that I have seen. The numbers, naturally, are very unreliable, but there are estimates FWIW.



Texas and Cali are, indeed the two biggest ones. But don't forget that Florida is a big one. I agree about Arizona. Virginia and NC are also surprisingly red in this map. Virginia has gone Democrat the last two elections, going on three. NC is a swing state that is trending slightly blue. Since 1988, no Republican has gotten 300 EVs. Donald Trump will need an upset to barely break 270. It will be impossible pretty soon.

Florida and Arizona will cease to become swing states and the big illegal immigrant states will also get a boost in their electoral college share. There will be redistricting in the House that will redistribute votes. Red districts in blue states will become fewer in number and blue districts in red states will become more abundant. Republicans have had a leg up in Congressional voter turnout in recent years, but that is a relatively recent phenomenon that I don't think has the fundamentals to last permanently.

And if there is amnesty 2.0, then someday there will be amnesty 3.0. You can bank on it.

By the time McCain ran the damage had been done. You speak as if they've done the best they could but they just can't win that shate. There is a reason why it's fallen, Rove tried immigration reform after the 2004 election and it went down in flames due to his party. That is damaging, calling immigrants rapists and criminals doesn't help.

McCain supported amnesty and bashed his own party repeatedly. If anyone should have captured the Hispanic vote, it should have been him.

[froot loops]

Hanni:

Do you have the matriculation/diaspora numbers for Hispanics? The bulk of hispanics arrive in California, a state that Rs have no chance of winning. Whether they lose by 20 points or 30 points is of no consequence. The question is how they move throughout the country and affect outcomes. So, I can see Arizona being a state that can swing. Maybe New Mexico, too.

But, e.g., in Ohio and Pennsylvania, are we seeing significant upticks in hispanic populations?

California as a firm Democratic stronghold is fairly recent development.

[iam416]

Thanks for the chart, Hanni. I wish they went higher than 5.5% because I can't imagine California being equal to, say, Nevada (or Florida) even on a percentage basis.

[froot loops]

McCain supported amnesty and bashed his own party repeatedly. If anyone should have captured the Hispanic vote, it should have been him.

So you are saying that McCain should have expected the same share of Latino votes that George W. Bush did even though the GOP as a party shot down immigration reform? In 2008 he was for building a fence and he repudiated his own 2007 immigration bill.

[Ghengis Jon]

That's an interesting chart Hanni. I find it hard to believe that Michigan is so low. Its like they didn't survey the Flint, Saginaw, Dearborn, Hamtramic and Sterling Heights areas. Lots of illegals here that everyone seems to cast a blind eye toward.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Really appreciate your response to my post, Hanni. Glad you put it out there. Geezer?

I need to think about your response for a while. The position you have taken, as talent notes, is entirely defensible.

[Da Geezer]

I attach the entire news conference in which Trump said he wished that Russia would release the 30,000 emails that Hillary destroyed (if they have them). Listen to what Trump says about Putin, and about the content of the DNC emails. Then listen to where the reporters take the questioning.

I agree with most of what Hanni says. I do add that I believe that the media is of one voice, and you can see that in this news conference. The Post and the Times set the narrative for the day and everyone falls in line. How many times have you heard the adjective "dark" used to describe the Republican convention? Now the narrative seems to be that Trump invited foreign hacking and he is Putin's favored candidate, neither of which is even remotely believable.

Russia's main source of wealth is their oil and gas. Trump wants to allow fracking on government lands, and extensive export of hydrocarbons.

Russia's main geopolitical goal is to disrupt the EU and NATO. The single historical fact that is most likely to do this is the refugee problem in the EU. Trump has proposed "safe areas" in the Levant. Hillary says more of the same.

Russia has a collegial relationship with Iran. Obama's Iran Deal guarantees Iran has a nuclear bomb within 8 years. Trump wants to tear up the deal. Hillary was one of the originators of the deal. I say Russia's interests are served by more of the same rather than a new administration that is hostile to Russia's biggest ally in the ME, Iran.

[ame="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFG5vBg45qs"]Donald Trump FULL Press Conference 7/27/16 - YouTube[/ame]

[froot loops]

The word dark was used because it was correct, it was dark. It isn't always the media's fault.

[froot loops]

The Iran deal was a deal between 7 actors, he can't unilaterally tear up anything. You could theoretically pull the US out of the deal but the deal still goes on.

[Wild Hoss]

I've said it before, but the AA vote fascinates me. They are so party loyal. It, e.g., strikes that a community that is so faith-based can be so reliably D. But, that's for another day.

Its really not complicated; AAs (and Latinos) are able to parse the difference between the words of GOP politicians and the hostile atmosphere its body politic holds for them.

It probably shouldn't matter as much as it does...but it does matter.

[iam416]

It'd have been simpler if you just called the R "body politic" a bunch of racists.

[iam416]

Incidentally, I wonder how delving into the "body politic" plays out if we revisit BLM/killing cops.