Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Hannibal]

If the Republicans had been smart, they would have embraced Trump as the front runner when the field was narrowed down to five. Going into March, Trump was only trailing Hillary by a few points. Now he is down by double digits, thanks to #NEVERTRUMP and #STOPTRUMP (and also Trump's gaffes and his very poor defense against those movements).

[iam416]

He's not going to get whipped b/c of the Rs.

[froot loops]

There was a report that he has been planning it for awhile. Allegedly a bunch of business leaders in New York wanted to him to run for governor of New York but he told them he had bigger things in mind and would need them for the Presidential campaign. I think he went gone into it truly being the outsider politician and refused to do things other politicians do. Some of that served him very well.

We can't look into his mind, what normal observers may view as unserious attempt he may look at as totally logical approach.

[Hannibal]

He's not going to get whipped b/c of the Rs.

He's not going to get whipped, period. He will fail to get 1237 votes on the first ballot and then he will be finished. Cruz's behind-the-scenes chicanery will pay off and he will be the nominee.

[iam416]

No, I'm talking about the General. I still think he'll get the nomination.

I'm sick of his whining, especially about Colorado, but I still think he'll be the nominee. And then he'll get destroyed by a bad candidate because he's an even worse general candidate.

[iam416]

In the meantime, Sanders continues to add to the many reasons that I would never vote for him by proposing a nationwide ban on fracking.

He's at the point where if it were Trump v. Sanders, I wouldn't only vote for Trump, I'd buy a fucking red hat.

[Hannibal]

He won't get the nomination. He's not going to get a single Rubio, Kasich, or Cruz delegate to vote for him on the second ballot and Cruz has been hard at work behind the scenes getting Trump's delegates to vote for him. There was a news story a couple of days ago that he already has his Arkansas delegates and he is going after the Arizona delegates. There have been multiple opportunities to mend fences but they have passed. It's 1237 or bust for Trump, and the Wisconsin vote bodes very ill for him in that regard.

And I agree about Trump's whining. He picks up a lot of blame for this meltdown. But ultimately that's not as important to me, because when Trump is gone he is gone, but the Republican Party will go on, and they will stay the Washington Generals forever. There will be no introspection and no serious analysis of how Trump caught fire because of his positions on a couple of huge issues that the Republicans can win on.

[iam416]

Yeah, I think it's a toss-up, but I think he'll prevail. But, then again, your scenario is realistic. If Cruz has enough to win w/ Kasich + Rubio, then fair is fair. That's what happens when you only have a plurality -- you run the risk of being outflanked.

If Cruz wins because he steals a significant number of Trump delegates, then that will play very poorly.

I think the ideal RNC scenario -- for a Cruz nomination -- is that Trump delegates hold and Cruz scoops up Kasich/Rubio and wins.

Much like our system of government, the Rs have chosen a republican form for nominating where the people elect representatives. The reps, of course, are single issue -- heh -- so there ought be no flipping until your candidate is toast.

[froot loops]

I don't think immigration is the winning issue in a general election that Hannibal thinks it is. It is a winning issue in a Republican primary.

There is a reason that the GOP has paid a lot of lip service to enforcing immigration laws and talking tough, but not doing much on it in governance. There is a big segment of the GOP that are on the other side of the immigration debate, they happen to be the big donors. Saying that they should have gotten behind Trump is easier said than done. He is pushing something they don't want.

[Wild Hoss]

I don't think immigration is the winning issue in a general election that Hannibal thinks it is. It is a winning issue in a Republican primary.

There is a reason that the GOP has paid a lot of lip service to enforcing immigration laws and talking tough, but not doing much on it in governance. There is a big segment of the GOP that are on the other side of the immigration debate, they happen to be the big donors. Saying that they should have gotten behind Trump is easier said than done. He is pushing something they don't want.

Completely agree. There are a shit-ton of Republicans making a shit-ton of money off the low labor costs that undocumented Mexicans provide. Jobs for which the amount of money required to entice the current 20somethings in this country to do would close them down.

They are just lying in public defilade, but making their desires known privately.

[Hannibal]

I'd like to see some data about the mythical Republican donor base that supposedly makes shit tons of money off of illegal immigration and is pushing for it hard behind the scenes. What Republican donors or industries are employing massive amounts of under the table labor? I know that my industry isn't -- at least not directly. Probably not indirectly either. And minimum wage laws prevent industries as a whole from benefitting from wage pressures. i.e. -- if you get more unskilled labor, you don't get lower wages, you just get higher unemployment. As far as I can tell, heavy industry cares much more about protection from environmental laws and other burdensome regulations.

The real reason that Republicans don't enforce our immigration laws is because they are afraid of being called "racist". It's that simple. They still think that they can some day win a majority of the minority vote if they are just nice and they appease them a little bit. It's idiotic.

[Wild Hoss]

I'd like to see some data about this mythical Republican donor base that supposedly makes shit tons of money off of illegal immigration and is pushing for it hard behind the scenes. What Republican donors or industries are employing massive amounts of under the table labor? I know that my industry isn't -- at least not directly. Probably not indirectly either. And minimum wage laws prevent industries as a whole from benefitting from wage pressures. i.e. -- if you get more unskilled labor, you don't get lower wages, you just get higher unemployment. Heavy industry cares much more about protection from environmental laws and other burdensome regulations.

Well, pushing an agenda behind the scenes tends to preclude alot of linkable evidence, so you got us there. The notion that there aren't Republicans making lots of money off the low labor costs of illegals...well if you don't believe that's true, you haven't been listening to the talking points of your own party, to say nothing of being detached from reality.

The real reason that Republicans don't enforce our immigration laws is because they are afraid of being called "racist". It's that simple.

LOL. To my last point above...

[froot loops]

Google Sheldon Adelson and the Koch brothers for a start.

[Wild Hoss]

One could walk into just about any food processing plant, lettuce field, or active residential construction jobsite as well.

[Hannibal]

LOL The Koch Brothers. Yes, I'm sure that sustaining illegal immigration is a much bigger factor in their profitability than sustaining fracking. If Trump gets nominated those Koch dollars are totally going to Hillary.

I don't know about you guys, but I have never gotten a job without a Social Security number and I haven't gotten a job without a birth certificate as well since I was a college intern 22 years ago. Neither has my wife. Where are all of these big businesses that let you walk in off the street without a valid ID, get a job, and then pay you with cash? How many of you have jobs where you didn't have to show proof of citizenship and identification? It's really hard to run a large business based on illegal labor. Are all of our fruit pickers illegal immigrants nowadays? I don't know. But if they are, then show me where the Big Fruit Picker lobby is shelling out their millions to the Republicans.