Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[hodgkal]

Geezer in another thread:

"When I was at UM, the school was consistently in the top 5 nationally in academics. Of course, Detroit was the richest city in the nation too, and the two factors worked in tandem."

Geezer, I wonder if we might have overlapped at any point in Detroit or Ann Arbor. Detroit was certainly a top city when I grew up there.

On another topic, in going through some old papers I came across a Michigan football ticket stub dated Oct. 7th, 1939! Michigan vs. MSC (Michigan State College), Michigan Stadium, section 2, Row 35. I was 8 years old and this was my first game at the Big House and I remember it vividly. My Dad had M-Club tickets and he must have saved this for me as a memento. I was hooked for life thereafter. Saw Tom Harmon play. that day.

(this is something I have written about in a previous discussion several years ago)

[Dr. Strangelove]

Won't often side with Trump, but good for him on smacking down Cruz, who sneered about "New York values". Cruz was representing everything that I said about "Middle America' looking down at its nose at the coasts just as much as they believe the coasts look down on them.

[Ghengis Jon]

On another topic, in going through some old papers I came across a Michigan football ticket stub dated Oct. 7th, 1939! Michigan vs. MSC...and this was my first game at the Big House

My friend, that means you've seen UM play in nine different decades. So far. May we all be so lucky!

[entropy]

Won't often side with Trump, but good for him on smacking down Cruz, who sneered about "New York values". Cruz was representing everything that I said about "Middle America' looking down at its nose at the coasts just as much as they believe the coasts look down on them.

actually, we only look down on you

[Dr. Strangelove]

Mmm-hmmm

Oh and Cruz hates 'New York values'...but that doesn't mean he can't love their money!

https://theintercept.com/2016/01/14/ted-cruz-hates-new-york-values-but-sure-loves-new-york-money/

[Dr. Strangelove]

As oil crashes, Russia's economy is increasingly a wreck

http://news.yahoo.com/moscow-stock-exchange-drops-5-percent-ruble-hit-115803227.html

[Wild Hoss]

The Russians don't care....they have a strong leader after all, right?. Rides horses and shit.

Vlad FTW.

[Ghengis Jon]

Russia has burned through 1/3 of its foreign reserves in the last 4 months. Could be some serious economic upheaval if oil stays below $30 and the reserves are exhausted in 6 more months. There's a lot of risk there. Upside is that Putin could get dumped just as the system nears collapse or we may find ourselves with another North Korea - this one with 5000 nukes instead of just 5.

[hack]

He's so entrenched it's really hard to see him getting turfed out. But, if he does, I bet you just get a different version of him. Maybe not one as good as him, but the model for ruling that country seems not to have changed, regardless of fringe protest activity.

[Rocky Bleier]

I don't see him getting dumped. The Russian people have a high tolerance for pain and suffering. What is going to be of interest is what he'll attempt in order to raise the price of oil and natural gas.

[Ghengis Jon]

I think that's where the danger is. Putin is a control freak and there's nothing he can do (other than cut production) to affect the price of oil and gas. Its when he starts to desperately flail that scares me.

[hack]

Well I guess there isn't much to discuss save for Rocky's new profile pic -- you've outdone yourself with that one! Agreeing is boring, but we are at least bores with quality eye candy.

[Rocky Bleier]

I think that's where the danger is. Putin is a control freak and there's nothing he can do (other than cut production) to affect the price of oil and gas. Its when he starts to desperately flail that scares me.

The problem is that no one can cut production. No one wants to lose market share, so it's a race to the bottom. With Obama making nice with Iran the situation gets worse soon. I know people like low gas prices, but there needs to be a price where companies can make a profit and have money for future project investment. Full disclosure: I've lost a bundle on paper in oil stocks. I may buy as much Exxon or Chevron as I can afford if oil drops below $20.

[hack]

Yeah. It can go much higher from here but not much lower. And we're not far off that either. Consensus research seems to be that we're at $60/b by late this year. Maybe better to buy the drilling stocks than the actual producers, since they still have an existential crisis on their hands, but for us out there it's time to start looking at buying into the sector in general.

[Da Geezer]

nice pic Rocky.

The problem is that no one can cut production. No one wants to lose market share, so it's a race to the bottom.

I agree. In addition, the high-cost producers (generally the frackers) have built their capital structure on the basis of $ 70 dollar oil. They have to keep pumping in order to pay the bank.

In theory, when the price of a commodity drops, the high-cost producers leave the market because the marginal return on the next barrel of oil doesn't meet the cost of production. But, since the Fed has kept the interest rate so low for so long, a lot of marginal companies have taken loans, and now they have to pay or lose their asset and their business. Like Rocky says, Exxon and Chevron could cut production without much harm to their dividend, but they are concerned about market share. The Saudis produce as low as 8 cents per barrel, but they too are in hock, as are the Russians.

I see the collapsing oil price as partly the result of artificially low interest rates. When the cost of money is basically free, most prospects look good.