Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Dr. Strangelove]

Mike Lee (R-UT) was predicting $6 gas by 2015 and Obama would've been to blame. Gingrich thought $10 a gallon was more realistic. Romney promised during his 2012 campaign that by 2017 he could probably get unemployment down to 6% but (thanks to Obama) that'd be mightily difficult. It's at 5% today.

[Dr. Strangelove]

^This. Thank god for shale and human ingenuity.

And also tanking demand + oversupply from the rest of the world. The Saudis & Russians are producing more than ever before and the Iranians are about to reenter the legitimate global market.

[hack]

I think what it really is is Saudi casting about to figure out what they are gonna do with themselves in the future. They may IPO Saudi Aramco. Just that the idea was publicly floated is astounding. The US-centric view is that Saudi abandoned its role as price-setter to knock shale out, but there are equally good reasons to think that was targeted at Russia and Iran. Better, actually.

[iam416]

The Saudis actions are, IMO, a direct result of the glorious shale boom.

The US energy situation is finally in a great position thanks to more good ol' fashion US innovation. Our accessible oil and natural gas supplies are off the charts...thanks to Obama, I guess. He loves non-renewable energy.

One underestimates the sheer brilliance of market-driven innovation at their own peril. The US, by itself, has made the world inhabitable by roughly 2.5B more people than the "experts" thought possible a mere 50 years ago. The global standard of living is considerably higher. The US standard of living is way higher -- there may be greater inequality or whatever -- but there's little doubt the bottom is considerably "wealthier" than the bottom was 50 years ago. We are so fucking wealthy that we now condemn certain types of foods -- instead of worrying about having enough food! It's truly astonishing.

To that end, I had a "bar discussion" amongst friends over the greatest scientific discovery of all-time. We used "discovery" so that we could include "natural phenomena" that were existing but unknown. One doucher insisted on Darwin and Theory of Evolution. I can't even replicate his arguments. I vacillated between Tesla's AC Power Plant model. I wasn't sure who is credited with vaccination (turns out it was Ed Jenner from England..1798!), but I had that one my list. And I also had "genetics" as it relates to modifying food to increase food supplies. The microchip missed my cut as did the combustion engine. My candidates were all based on improving the human condition.

[hack]

Interesting discussion to have. I think that's more your first/second-beer discussion.

From the Saudi perspective, they are selling more now and making less than when they were selling less. That suggests that either they didn't think prices would fall quite this far, or that non-commercial factors are involved. Iran in particular is an existential crisis for them. Putin is a real thorn via Syria. I don't think anyone truly knows what went into their decision, and it's foolish to say that any one factor accounted for 100% or 0% of it. I can say though that just as in the US we think shale made them do it, Russians think Putin made them do it, and Iranians think Iran made them do it. Another possibility is that they are panicked and making rash decisions, which I think is also true. And a pleasant one to contemplate until you factor in the damage they are doing to the rest of the world.

Another discussion another time perhaps, but some of the victory of shale wasn't innovation in the oilpatch but lobbying and cash in DC. Of course innovation is driven by markets, and if anything else contributes its a minor contribution. But if you own the regulator you can look a lot more innovative than if you are actually regulated. And if you're forced to compensate for the damage you do, it's a lot less commercially viable and therefore not quite as brilliant an innovation.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Might also have said

Crop rotation
Compass
Printing Press
Newtonian Mechanics
Electricity
Heliocentrism
The atom (an ancient Greek idea revived 2400 years later)

[iam416]

Crop rotation is a good one. That's a GMO vs Crop rotation discussion to see which one emerges as most important in "feeding the world" area.

Compass. Bah.

Considered the printing press, but I thought it to mundane. There's a sense of inevitability about it. That said, a worthy mention.

With electricity I focused on the practical application. AC-generated power plants. I can't imagine the world without them.

Newtonian Mechanics (ish) was the only "theory" that I considered seriously -- Euclid minor consideration.

Copernicus is horseshit. If the standard is improving the human condition, it matters very little how we think the Earth moves.

Atom is too general.

Hack:

Good stuff on Saudis! Conceded -- it's more complex issue than SHALE!!!!.

[Mike]

To clarify my comments in 4153, I'm not suggesting that Obama is the reason for cheap energy just that none of the doomsday scenarios came to pass.

Also , thanks for that additional info on the Hammond's legal battles upthread. I figured there was more to the story.

[hack]

LOL @ ``SHALE!!!'' Well played.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Crop rotation is a good one. That's a GMO vs Crop rotation discussion to see which one emerges as most important in "feeding the world" area.

Compass. Bah.

Considered the printing press, but I thought it to mundane. There's a sense of inevitability about it. That said, a worthy mention.

With electricity I focused on the practical application. AC-generated power plants. I can't imagine the world without them.

Newtonian Mechanics (ish) was the only "theory" that I considered seriously -- Euclid minor consideration.

Copernicus is horseshit. If the standard is improving the human condition, it matters very little how we think the Earth moves.

Atom is too general.

Hack:

Good stuff on Saudis! Conceded -- it's more complex issue than SHALE!!!!.

An argument for heliocentrism might be that it was a major blow against religious dogmatism which then led to science being advanced in other areas where religion might have blocked the way. But speaking only of direct impact on the human condition then no, not much.

This might be Eurocentric too...not sure if Islam or Asian religions were as wedded to the idea of earth being the center of the universe.

[Wild Hoss]

Might also have said

Crop rotation
Compass
Printing Press
Newtonian Mechanics
Electricity
Heliocentrism
The atom (an ancient Greek idea revived 2400 years later)

JMO, but any discussion of improving the human condition must include the notion of Talent "falling" off a very tall structure of some kind or it is incomplete.

[Da Geezer]

I'd add microbiology as something that has helped humans a lot. The idea that living things cannot be seen was revolutionary.

Capitalism has brought more people out of poverty than any other economic/political system.

[Da Geezer]

Jon, I agree. We are witnessing the potential disaster of what a democratic election can produce just tonight. . . . Seems you need a really educated, informed, and engaged electorate to have a shot at true democracy that benefits the majority. If not you need a benevolent dictator.

We should always remember that there is a radical difference between democracy and a constitutional republic ("if you can keep it"-Ben Franklin). Our founders had no faith in human nature and set up systems designed to make it difficult to make decisions in our government. They were drafting the Constitution at the same time as the French Revolution was taking place ("Liberty, Equality, Fraternity" and all that). They saw what a disaster the tyranny of the majority could be, and they set up our government to avoid it.

First, the franchise was given only to white, male property owners and taxpaying Indians. Second, they split the relatively democratic people's House from the Senate, which they viewed as a repository of wisdom. Third, they set up a Electoral College to elect our President and VP. Fourth, they reserved all enumerated powers "to the States or to the People"

The name Democrat is used because Dems believe in pure democracy. They want immigration, welfare by the majority to the majority, motor voter, voting by email, and basically "every person gets to vote, including the dead." They believe that if we find the right person we will have good government. When it is said that "if not, then you need a benevolent dictator", what is really being said is that man is good, and we have to find a good man.

The Reps believe in republican forms of government wherein power is disbursed. That said, they have come to believe that republican means having only a chosen few rule. Both Reps and Dems actually believe man is good, or good enough to trust with power. The Dems have always believed this, and the Reps have, since about 1988, said they do too, but a little less than the Dems.

[hack]

I think the sad reality is that you need both a diffusion of power AND solid human beings holding those little bits. Or you need to shuffle EVERYBODY in and out regularly. You can't let elected reps grow roots in their seats, but maybe the same goes for the bureaucrats too. And the journalists, and the lobbyists, and everyone else in DC. Broom the whole lot out every ten years. Every single person. Of course this is not realistic. So you have to have elected reps who just aren't going to sink to unprecedented lows. Ultimately you have to have ethical people.

[Ghengis Jon]

Off Topic: My group is looking for a couple of engineers (mech or elec). Should have some experience in the automotive or heavy vehicle industry. Location is Troy Michigan. If you or someone you know fits the bill, please send me a PM.