Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Hannibal]

Oil producers here will struggle but they will pop back quickly if the price rebounds. Saudi Arabia's unchecked power in that department is gone forever if we want it to be. The equilibrium price is around $70/bbl or so I'm told.

[hack]

Mmmmm, we'll see. There's lots of experimentation with regards to new fracking methods like using sand or natural gas itself. But I think the best result are still from using one form of chemical/water slurry or another. Far from an expert on that side of it though.

Ideally it'd be great to find something that uses less water and has a low impact environmentally. I believe the drilling side of this is getting farther out in front of fracking methods.

That's what I had understood myself -- that drilling is set for a leap. So you can frack with the same old technology but getting much further with one well.

[hack]

Dr. Strange:

What do you know about Russia's cost of production?

There is news tonight that there is a meeting in which Russia and the Saudis are taking part having to do with Assad staying in power. If those two can agree on Assad, it seems they could agree on some limitation of production. Like Hack said, the US is diversified and Russia and Saudi are not. I don't remember where I saw it, but within the last two or three days I saw a map of the tankers waiting to get into Galviston harbor. I'll bet there were 15 of them.

Hack: OK, I'll bite. How many months have you spent in the dumps of Cairo? Have you ever written about dhimmitude and what do you know about it ?

You don't have to bite if you don't want to, Geezer. I'm just pointing out the pattern.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Watch the ruble. It sinks and swims with the price of Brent crude. It's really incredible and tells you just how dependent Russia's economy is on raw natural resource exports. There used to be a lot of speculation that Saudi Arabia's real target was Russia - notice they are now trying to work their way into the European market while Russia sits sanctioned. Russia also primarily uses conventional vertical wells, though they are experimenting with fracking too.

As far as costs of production go it's my understanding that in Saudi Arabia/Kuwait/UAE they can produce at about the lowest amount in the world. That primarily has to do with dumb luck - the geology is extremely to their advantage. The oil is in shallower formations which are easier to drill through and require less artificial pressure. But that said, even they are losing money right now.

Hanni- I believe we'd be happy if it just got back to $60

[Dr. Strangelove]

That's what I had understood myself -- that drilling is set for a leap. So you can frack with the same old technology but getting much further with one well.

Yep. As far as my non-engineering self is aware, the drilling side has advanced much farther in the past decade than successful (and cost-efficient) fracking methods. Which may soon change.

Unfortunately with prices like these, companies don't have the resources to tinker. Exxon and Chevron do but like I said, they aren't really the 'pioneers' in this field. They're perfectly happy drilling in foreign countries, not America.

[hack]

Saudi can produce at $10 a barrel, but it needs to sell at $85 or so to balance it's budget.

[Da Geezer]

You don't have to bite if you don't want to, Geezer. I'm just pointing out the pattern.

Yup, didn't figure you had been there. Unlike virtually all J School grads, my friend has no other agenda than sending money to help the poor kids in Cairo. But he is the chairman of the Board of Reference in the US

http://www.stephenschildren.org/about/board/

My friend was a frat brother of mine at Hope. 17 years prior to that, his sister was my sister's roommate at Calvin (both deceased). You might say he has a great deal of credibility with me, as does his family. Maggie Gobran has real credibility too.

He recently sold a robotics firm in Holland. He had taken it from 200 employees to 450. I understand you have a disdain for the west side of the state, but he gave his employees each a bonus of up to $ 50,000 for the wealth they had created.. And that is exactly what he told CBS news in the story they did on him. The total gift came to just under $ 6 Million. When they asked him how it feels to give money like that away, he said "It feels good, I highly recommend it"

Unlike DC or J-school will tell you, out in the hinterlands we create wealth. When we were discussing this months ago, you basically told me I was a liar, and I had to have had family wealth to succeed. That is just not true. But it doesn't fit your paradigm, and your paradigm is locked in place. I, and many like me, want a bigger pie for everyone, but progressives simply deny that can happen.

Again, just my opinion, but I'd rather give freely of what is my money, to the children in the dumps of Cairo than be forced to give it to the criminals that run Detroit. Capitalism has brought more third world humans out of poverty than all the progressive programs the UN can come up with. But again, that is just my opinion.

[hack]

Nobody's saying it's not a good cause. It probably is. However charitable organizations aren't in business unless they can fundraise, and that's all about selling the sizzle. There's frequently a good reason to be skeptical. The things you mentioned made no sense to me. For the record Cairo is one of my favorite places. I've been there a ton. Is where I caught the travel bug originally. But I don't need to have ever have gone to spot the holes there, Google them, and confirm suspicions.

Capitalism has brought more third world humans out of poverty than all the progressive programs the UN can come up with. But again, that is just my opinion.

I agree with you, and that should be no surprise if you've been paying attention. But why not increase the force of your argument with some facts? Overall, if you trigger someone's bullshit meter enough times, you're gonna end up fact-checked regularly. Not sure what else you'd expect.

[hack]

Yep. As far as my non-engineering self is aware, the drilling side has advanced much farther in the past decade than successful (and cost-efficient) fracking methods. Which may soon change.

Unfortunately with prices like these, companies don't have the resources to tinker. Exxon and Chevron do but like I said, they aren't really the 'pioneers' in this field. They're perfectly happy drilling in foreign countries, not America.

Do you work for a big/small/medium? Would be interested in your thoughts, but the IOCs are in big trouble. Declining opportunities to book reserves, rise of national oil companies, costs spiking for the offshore stuff where they don't have to worry about shitting on locals, invest/divest movement at home and the potential for a big-tobacco kind of lawsuit. These are companies that may in the future require a big identity change. And they do have capacities that apply to a post-carbon economy in ways that others don't.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Nobody's saying it's not a good cause. It probably is. However charitable organizations aren't in business unless they can fundraise, and that's all about selling the sizzle. There's frequently a good reason to be skeptical. The things you mentioned made no sense to me. For the record Cairo is one of my favorite places. I've been there a ton. Is where I caught the travel bug originally. But I don't need to have ever have gone to spot the holes there, Google them, and confirm suspicions.

Capitalism has brought more third world humans out of poverty than all the progressive programs the UN can come up with. But again, that is just my opinion.

I agree with you, and that should be no surprise if you've been paying attention. But why not increase the force of your argument with some facts? Overall, if you trigger someone's bullshit meter enough times, you're gonna end up fact-checked regularly. Not sure what else you'd expect.

Good post.

The last few days there has been an ongoing discussion about several topics that are, right now, crucial to helping those that want to be informed, be informed about the Paris terrorist attacks and what nations should do about it.

I appreciate the tone and civility of posts involving hot topics.

[Hannibal]

I have been told that the cost of production for oil in parts of the Middle East is in single digit $/bbl. They will always be the low cost producer. But, naturally, they want to get the most out of their reserves and make them last as long as possible, so the US shale boom has been a disaster for them. They are probably hoping that they can put the oil sand and the shale producers out of business Rockefeller style, but what's more likely to happen is that the price will equilibrate out somewhere. I'm not up to speed on Saudi Arabian economics, but if they are like every other government that was once flushed with cash, they probably built their economy around the best case scenario and they are now suffering as a result. It's sad but it happens every time. It has happened numerous times here in the US with state governments.

I do believe that the degree of radical mobilization of Muslims by fundamentalists in the milieu of crumbling governments and infrastructure where millions of them live is an unprecedented threat to the West.

That's not the unprecedented part. Nor is the existence of oil money. What is new to the picture is the widespread idiocy of Multiculturalism and the sheer lunacy by which Western countries are now approaching the problem. We are importing millions upon millions of people from toxic third world countries without any consideration for whether they add any value being there. We have killed our immune system. In the case of European welfare states, they are actually paying them to live there and practice their hateful ideology. In America, we are compounding it by sharing an open border with a third world country. And we call anyone who protests this insanity a "racist" and we send them to sensitivity training. The concept of an immigration policy being designed to keep your country safe and prosperous has gone out the window. There is no logical defense of this. There is nothing remotely resembling a logical argument that this is a healthy trajectory for the US, France, Sweden, Germany, or Great Britain and that today's open immigration policies will benefit a majority of these countries' citizens. Canada's new government has promised an open door refugee policy. How long before what happned in Paris happens in Torotno? It's pure, unadulterated, suicidal lunacy and the only question is whether we will wake up to pull out of the nose dive in time.

If recent history is any experience, the Paris attacks will just cause everyone to double down on the "White priviledge/racism" model and insist even harder that we need to open the doors even further and demonstrate our good will. The Charlie Hebdo masscacre didn't wake people up. This won't either.

Again, just my opinion, but I'd rather give freely of what is my money, to the children in the dumps of Cairo than be forced to give it to the criminals that run Detroit. Capitalism has brought more third world humans out of poverty than all the progressive programs the UN can come up with. But again, that is just my opinion.

Check your priviledge, Geezer.

[entropy]

http://www.allenbwest.com/2015/11/what-just-happened-in-minnesota-shows-exactly-why-were-losing-against-islamic-jihad/

I think the article speaks for itself.

[Ghengis Jon]

Interesting read, but the author's agenda is clear. One clueless dweeb goes overboard on political correctness and the author points to the "insidious progressive socialist moral equivalency". For balance, where is the criticism of the "insidious conservative totalitarian immoral infliction of unwanted cultural change" that fans the flames of Islamic radicalism?

Where have I heard of Allen West? Did he run for prez a couple of cycles ago?

[entropy]

I don't think it is one example.. sadly. And this isn't a right or left thing, rather another example of a group taking a holiday cup or a event in our history and turning it into something that has to be defended.

[edindetroit]

Interesting read, but the author's agenda is clear. One clueless dweeb goes overboard on political correctness and the author points to the "insidious progressive socialist moral equivalency". For balance, where is the criticism of the "insidious conservative totalitarian immoral infliction of unwanted cultural change" that fans the flames of Islamic radicalism?

Where have I heard of Allen West? Did he run for prez a couple of cycles ago?

Alan Keyes?