Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Jeff Buchanan]

Pretty much spot on and repeats my call for targeting, not in military sense, the Saudi sponsored Madrassas and the Wahhabiests preaching their line of intolerance of anything un-Muslim who occupy them.

I'm not so much enamored with the European version of getting to the heart of the matter - economic disadvantage - as I am at leveraging the Islamic radicals via the Saudis' et. al (I did not realize the Quatari's involvement in this).

At this point in time, it seems these Kingdoms don't have the leverage with oil they once had. The West should be able to advantage themselves by simply isolating these players as Iran was isolated to win concessions on Nuclear arms. When the entire world got behind this, despite some leaks, it seems to have been effective.

As it looks, if you get down to fundamentals, we're probably better off making up with the Iranian Ayatolahs (the Shia), drastically improving relationships there and getting them to do the dirty work with the Saudi's et. al. (Sunni). Never thought this either but Hezbollah might be our allies in this as well.

I'm not fully convinced the West is doomed in all this as some are saying. We are still living in the Age of Enlightenment, I would think, while it is pretty clear to me the radicals (e.g., Wahhabiests but beyond them to a small degree) are advocating for a return to the Dark Ages. I have a hard time believing that this segment of the Muslim world is going to coerce the rest of it under it's heel, let alone Protestants (in it's broadest interpretation). Turkey is a good example with Erdogan (not a secularist) likely on his way out. Thank you Attaturk.

P.S., did some fact checking and found this interesting compilation of the World's Muslim populations:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_by_country

[Jeff Buchanan]

...... one additional comment.

Some have mentioned here that the US Government is not going to jeopardize Boeing and Northrup/Grumman's contracts with the Saudis.

While, unlike Hollande, who called the Paris carnage "an act of war, other Western leaders are not likely to do that but Holdande has the capacity and probably the backing from other nations to take their national security seriously.

Don't forget FDR, through a multitude of executive and legislative action, ran a managed Economy from 1939 until 1945 actually nationalizing some industries to prevent labor disputes from interrupting the war supplies machine.

I don't think that a realistic approach to the world situation right now indicates the West, and I'll include Russia if not the Chinese, are at war with the leadership of radical elements of Islam. I would have no problem with the Executive telling whatever industry giants they might find appropriate, that they can't do business with the Saudi's or anyone else who is doing business with (sending money to or otherwise supporting) Islamic extremist elements.

I think Western Governments know who is doing this and to a lesser extent who is receiving financial support. I'd also comment that it's time, again in the name of national security, for the G6 to strip the various banking institutions world wide of the shields that protect the secrecy of financial transactions.

[Da Geezer]

Amen, Jeff

Gosh, I hope that is not a microaggression against someone

[hack]

Without question the financial-warfare tools are the ones that are effective right now. Blocking Iran's access to the SWIFT network is what brought them to heel. Those tools aren't going to work forever, but they do right now.

[Da Geezer]

Hack;

I agree wholeheartedly that the Wahhabis are the core of the matter. I believe I was the first to bring it up. The Madrassas they have spread over the Islamic World have laid the foundation for the Islamic Terror we see now. Good article by the way.

As for the monzers in the dumps of Cairo, I'm going to trust the people who have grown up in Cairo, like Maggie Gibran and her staff. Lots of folks in GR have gone there for 2-3 months, but they went with the purpose of actually seeing the dumps and the children. I couldn't go because I had open heart surgery in 1957 and 1968 and my immune system might not handle the bacteria in Cairo. I simply don't believe you spent the amount of time in the dumps of Cairo (22 million population) that my friends did. Perhaps you should. And keep in mind that the Hebrew/Aramaic word for Hell is the same word they use for the permanent fires of the city dump.

But you are right on the mark about religious folks trying to force their religion on you. That is what the Muslims do with the "convert or die" mandate of Sharia. And while Jeff is correct in saying "morality" is relative, I think that killing humans who don't believe is a pretty fair line to draw. And if that makes me an islamophobe, then so be it. "Just because you are paranoid doesn't mean someone is not following you"

You and I differ in politics, as we have discussed in this space often. But it is simply inaccurate to blame Mubarak for the political turmoil in Egypt. The Muslim Brotherhood was equally responsible. The Copts I speak with got along fine with Mubarak, but not with the Muslim Brotherhood. The MB got a pass from the controlled media in the US because they are the preferred ally of President Obama. Again, talk to the ordinary citizens on the ground.

[hack]

I simply don't believe you spent the amount of time in the dumps of Cairo (22 million population) that my friends did.

I don't expect you to take my word for it, but that's a little strange. You haven't asked me a single question about what I know, when I've gone, or who I talk to. You ``believe'' something about it but appear to be completely uncurious as to whether you are correct or not. You're establishing an assumption and running with it without any desire to actually know. Getting to be a pattern there...

[Dr. Strangelove]

We just sold over a billion dollars in bombs to Saudi Arabia

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/16/us-saudi-usa-arms-idUSKCN0T51NC20151116

They'll most likely use them on Yemen in a war the US media has largely ignored.

The House of Saud's desire to hold onto power has directly led to the creation of the Taliban, Al Qaeda, ISIS, and other extremist groups.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Oh and Saudi Arabia (and its Gulf allies) are the ones currently flooding the world market with oil in an attempt to drive the American Fracking/Canadian Tar Sands Oil out of business. They are losing money right now too but they can last a lot longer than most small oil producers in the US can. Most of the countries in OPEC want supplies to be cut but Saudi Arabia has insisted every time it comes up for vote that production remain at an all time high

[Ghengis Jon]

I don't buy that. Most of our untapped oil reserves are currently legally untouchable. Even at our bloated rate of comsumption, we have what, 500 years of reserves? Let them flood the market, their reserves have been steeply declining. We will win any battle of attrition.

[hack]

They have succeeded in knocking prices low enough that activity without question has slowed. The industry standard there is a weekly rig count done by Baker Hughes. Currently 767, against 1161 last year at this time. http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix....countsoverview

That said, Saudi is in quite a bit of trouble itself as a result. They can hurt the US oil sector, but the US has lots of economic sectors whereas Saudi has one, and they've just hurt it deeply themselves. 20% budget deficit this year, looking to sell government bonds for the first time in a few decades, even opening up the stock market to foreign investment. It's a GREAT time to quietly sever that alliance, or to exercise the leverage we have now that we produce more oil and gas than they do.

[Dr. Strangelove]

I work in the industry. A couple more years with depressed oil prices under $50 a barrel and a lot of the shale gas/oil companies are going to go bust. Heck, for some it may be in the next quarter or two.

The cost of producing 1M barrel of Saudi oil is much lower than 1M barrel through fracking shale in the US. They ARE hurting themselves but they are going to cripple, perhaps permanently, many mid-to-small sized US producers. The giants like Exxon and Chevron will survive of course but they haven't been the innovators in the shale plays.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Magnum Hunter is one small company widely expected to go bankrupt in the near future. Their trading on the NYSE was suspended last week.

[hack]

How long before the tech catches up and lowers that break-even cost? I was reading something on directional drilling and some sort of new smart rig that seemed very impressive, but I don't have a feel for how fast that can happen.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Mmmmm, we'll see. There's lots of experimentation with regards to new fracking methods like using sand or natural gas itself. But I think the best result are still from using one form of chemical/water slurry or another. Far from an expert on that side of it though.

Ideally it'd be great to find something that uses less water and has a low impact environmentally. I believe the drilling side of this is getting farther out in front of fracking methods.

[Da Geezer]

Dr. Strange:

What do you know about Russia's cost of production?

There is news tonight that there is a meeting in which Russia and the Saudis are taking part having to do with Assad staying in power. If those two can agree on Assad, it seems they could agree on some limitation of production. Like Hack said, the US is diversified and Russia and Saudi are not. I don't remember where I saw it, but within the last two or three days I saw a map of the tankers waiting to get into Galviston harbor. I'll bet there were 15 of them.

Hack: OK, I'll bite. How many months have you spent in the dumps of Cairo? Have you ever written about dhimmitude and what do you know about it ?