Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[froot loops]

So froot....are you selling all your investments based on stocks and going 100% into bonds?

That's the issue, they aren't doing that and that's why people are spooked. Normal stock market crashes see that behavior. Crudely put if the market goes down the bond rates go down. They aren't doing that here. Here is a key quote from the article.

"It just seems like a capital flight right now,” said Brian Rehling, head of global fixed-income strategy at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute. “It’s kind of a sell America trade.”

The bond market spooked Trump and that's why he put a "pause" on Liberation Day, but it didn't stop the issue on the bond market.

We need the return of Hack, he was always big on the dollar and it's importance a the reserve currency.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/tariff-turmoil-has-split-the-bond-market-in-two-7953de40

[froot loops]

I keep forgetting...froot is Warren Buffett.

The only "Warren" froot is...is this guy...
Warren.jpg

I'm not Warren Buffett, but meme away in your slavish devotion to defend Trump.

[THE_WIZARD_]

STFU

[Jeff Buchanan]

Opening statement: This post is not in support of Trump's evolving trade policy or, specifically, tariffs. A lot is being made of the rising yields in the bond market and blaming that on the Trump tariffs. Unless you are actively involved in the bond markets on a day to day basis, why there is so much volatility in an otherwise stable investment haven - long term treasuries - the complexity of how yields are set and either rise or fall tends to make it hard for us as average Americans to understand what's happening and why. TBF, Trump's tariff implementation can not be assigned as the single causative reason for a "twitchy" bond market. There are multiple reasons and uncertainty about Trump's tariffs and trade policy is one of them.

There is no simple explanation because there are several factors at play. The important point is that the volatility isn't going to last and yields will fall into a normal trading range as liquidity returns to cash poor hegers who were forced to sell bonds to cover losses. The ensuing "flight of dollars" is a big factor here. That has a definite end point and will be reached short term as in a week or two. Because of that reality, I have a hard time accepting that Trump declared the 90d pause because he was "spooked" by the bond market's rising yields and backed down. I also don't accept the pause was part of some grand strategy laid out before "Liberation Day."

Anyway, the link below is a Barron's article that appeared today (paywalled) and picked up by MSNBC on what caused it and why the bond market volatility won't last. A good thing. It also explains what it means when analysts say ominously, "the fed is likely to intervene." They will by cutting interest rates sooner and more quickly than before "Liberation Day." Another good thing. Again, this is no defense of Trump. It is, however important to understand the multiple factors at play here set into motion by the trade war Trump, alone, has definitely ignited.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/long-term-treasury-bond-yields-are-spiking-why-it-won-t-last/ar-AA1CKUjA?ocid=finance-verthp-feeds

[froot loops]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/04/09/trump-tariffs-pause-decision/

[Jeff Buchanan]

Froot, you have to sign in but can read your Wapo link free by posting your email. I don't want get inundated with Wapo sales pitches. Can you summarize please?

[THE_WIZARD_]

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[Dr. Strangelove]

[lineygoblue]

He still has over 3 1/2 years to go.

Dems have a long time to keep spitting into the wind.

In other news, Bill Maher had an interesting take on his visit with Trump at the WH.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/bill-maher-reveals-trump-gracious-measured-white-house-meeting-says-hes-not-man-seen-tv

[Dr. Strangelove]

The man's the ultimate celebrity jock-sniffer. I've been saying that for years. The whole "man of the people" act is crap. He wouldn't be caught dead spending a weekend in Iowa. He's spent his whole life trying to get the coastal "Elites" to accept him as one of their own, not destroy the Elites.

Also it goes without saying that polls now don't mean anything in four years or even in 2026. It's just an indication that, yes, the trade wars are unpopular with plenty of ordinary Americans.

[Dr. Strangelove]

I regard this as great news. But it’s also a big blow to the people arguing that the whole point of this kerfuffle is to restore manufacturing jobs to the States. If all the high tech stuff gets exemptions what are we talking about bringing back? Textiles? Kids toys?

[THE_WIZARD_]

DSL really just wants America to fail.

[Mike]

Don't know how I missed this yesterday. Finally some great news worth cheering. Bye-bye, sumbitch!

https://www.foxnews.com/us/columbia-anti-israel-protester-mahmoud-khalil-can-deported-judge-rules

[THE_WIZARD_]

He deserves due process.

[Da Geezer]

Trump has met his match in the bond markets. He can get stock traders to jump and duck with a single tweet but the bond guys stay unfazed.

Or, viewed alternatively, China is selling their US bonds to try to increase interest rates.