Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Dr. Strangelove]

This was a victory for Trump in the sense that the Supreme Court said he CAN deport people under the Alien Enemies Act and won't order him to return all those people he's already deported.

It was a victory for future detainees, however, in that the Court is reiterating that you can't just sweep people up off the streets and have them on a plane to El Salvador hours later without giving them time to defend themselves in a court hearing. Everyone within the United States has 5th Amendment rights whether you like that or not.

They made no judgment whatsoever on whether Trump applied the AEA correctly.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Another commodity that the US relies almost entirely on imports for: rubber. Impossible to grow rubber trees in the US to come close to meeting demand. So unless they're making an exemption, that's a pretty dumb thing to tariff right there.

[Dr. Strangelove]

"[Peter] Navarro is truly a moron. Navarro is dumber than a sack of bricks"

-- Elon Musk on Peter Navarro, 4/8/2025

[Jeff Buchanan]

Per Elon? Right ........I think a couple of days ago Musk said Navarro's maximalist approach to tariffs was the wrong path for Trump to follow is what he has stated, along with a bunch of other shade thrown Navarro's way. But DJT seems to be listening to that maximalist cohort that's active in the West Wing while those that are OK with tariffs; not OK with a shotgun approach to them.

With European and US markets up sharply today and the PPB of oil stabilizing in the face of continued uncertainty is a bit weird. I suspect there are bulls out there that are enamored with the idea of buying the drops in stock prices and they may be associated with big pension funds with managers assisted by auto-investment decisions that are machine (AI???) driven. Whatever it is, I hope there's some belief in high places that Trump will deal. His meeting with Netanyahu yesterday is being characterized as BiBi not getting what he sought. Trump kept the flat 10% tariff on imports from Israel in place.

Trump did threaten Iran that they must come to the table and talk about their nuclear program or face some very bad consequences for refusing - whatever that means. Netanyahu has never supported a nuclear deal between Iran and the US. So, that threat seems out of place. Whatever. Also potentially driving the market rise is some kind of indication that the 50 or so countries that have allegedly approached the Trump administration wanting to negotiate is accurate and apparently, Trump hasn't directly dismissed them. He has said publicly that he didn't impose tariffs to seek concessions. Its chaotic and that's Trump style. Makes most analysts uncomfortable.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Minor correction but Israel's rate is 17%. We have a trade deficit with them so they must be punished. They are abusing us very terribly.

My takeaway so far is that the flat 10% rate is never going away. That will be the lowest you can negotiate yourself down to.

[froot loops]

Peter Navarro is just a weird mercantilist, I would love to see someone ask him about comparative advantage. But I think it's a mistake to think Trump is just listening to Navarro and being influenced, Trump just has him there because his brain is also cooked by mercantilism. Most of policy issues Trump has no real affinity for, but we have 40 years of him railing trade deficits. It started back in the 80s when he said Japan was ripping the US off.

Here is respected University of Michigan economist laying out this absurd tariff program. It's worth everyone's time.

[froot loops]

Minor correction but Israel's rate is 17%. We have a trade deficit with them so they must be punished. They are abusing us very terribly.

My takeaway so far is that the flat 10% rate is never going away. That will be the lowest you can negotiate yourself down to.

Israel is sort of in the same boat as Taiwan. It exports high tech stuff to the US. Some of those exports are related to Nvidia.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Trade deficits are neither inherently bad or good. They can be either. It's weird that this guy who thinks they are the absolute worst thing ever and proof we're getting screwed also thinks massive budget deficits are no big deal.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Yesterday the market cratered at the open and then ended up not being so bad. Today the market shot up 1500 points and has given nearly all of it back.

White House announces that tariffs on China are now at 104% after Beijing ignored Trump's deadline.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Yeah, quite the ride.

[Jeff Buchanan]

In the video that Froot linked the M economist says that the way Trump has approached their implementation - tariffing every nation's imported goods - would do more damage to the global economy than a well thought out targeted tariff regime. That criticism is fairly widespread and accepted as valid. He did admit, in a short sentence, that there were legitimate trade issues. If he feels that is so, then why not focus focus on how the US should pursue the abolishment of them instead of harping on a criticism that is widely thought of as legit.

The more I read about this stuff, the more I think Trump has complained about unfair trade practices for decades going way back. So, that he is a tariff maniac with the potential to overshoot a desired result - if he hasn't already - should surprise no one. The M guy's lead in line - "your lives will never be the same......" - becomes a "shocking story" suitable for presentation by the media. That's it. Humans tend to be adaptive creatures and will adjust to higher prices.

The reality is that we're just all bystanders in the fallout. Stirring up negative sentiment can compound consumer angst and reluctance to spend. I question the utility of that. So far, there's little evidence that, post tariff implementation, there's a lot of good things happening ...... there's talk but that is way different than deals actually being made. Those are TBD.

The penis size challenge between Trump and Xi is dangerous, especially in light of China's avowed willingness to sit down and talk about this stuff like adults with mutual respect for the parties involved. I will say, that's nice but that water is under the bridge - the WTO has proven itself unable to enforce some aspects of trade barriers the US has complained about for a long time without result. Now Trump and his people are taking action to correct them. If the WTO had acted in a less globalist friendly way to the US's complaints, it's more likely than not that we wouldn't be in this shit sandwich.

[froot loops]

In the video that Froot linked the M economist says that the way Trump has approached their implementation - tariffing every nation's imported goods - would do more damage to the global economy than a well thought out targeted tariff regime. That criticism is fairly widespread and accepted as valid. He did admit, in a short sentence, that there were legitimate trade issues. If he feels that is so, then why not focus focus on how the US should pursue the abolishment of them instead of harping on a criticism that is widely thought of as legit.

The more I read about this stuff, the more I think Trump has complained about unfair trade practices for decades going way back. So, that he is a tariff maniac with the potential to overshoot a desired result - if he hasn't already - should surprise no one. The M guy's lead in line - "your lives will never be the same......" - becomes a "shocking story" suitable for presentation by the media. That's it. Humans tend to be adaptive creatures and will adjust to higher prices.

The reality is that we're just all bystanders in the fallout. Stirring up negative sentiment can compound consumer angst and reluctance to spend. I question the utility of that. So far, there's little evidence that, post tariff implementation, there's a lot of good things happening ...... there's talk but that is way different than deals actually being made. Those are TBD.

The penis size challenge between Trump and Xi is dangerous, especially in light of China's avowed willingness to sit down and talk about this stuff like adults with mutual respect for the parties involved. I will say, that's nice but that water is under the bridge - the WTO has proven itself unable to enforce some aspects of trade barriers the US has complained about for a long time without result. Now Trump and his people are taking action to correct them. If the WTO had acted in a less globalist friendly way to the US's complaints, it's more likely than not that we wouldn't be in this shit sandwich.

Again what you are talking about and what Trump is talking about are two separate things. Trump is talking pure mercantilism where is he believes if you have a trade deficit you are getting ripped off. By Trump's words, the tariffs he is allegedly going to impose is done so with goal of bilateral equalibrium with every country.

We run a 700 million dollar trade deficit with Madagascar, we buy vanilla, Oreo and titanium from that country. They are very poor, they don't buy much from us, there is no scenario where they are able to buy much more from us because they are poor. They are not ripping us off, but he put a 47 percent tariff on them. That will reduce what we can buy from them to bring it more balanced. But that makes no fucking sense.

What you are talking about with China is different. If you wanted to coordinate an effort to combat China in trade, you could have worked with the TPP. If this was only about about China, you wouldn't slap a tariff on everybody.

[Dr. Strangelove]

For the 4th straight day the S&P 500 had a trading range of over 5% today.

The only other times that has happened were 1987, 2008, and 2020.

[Dr. Strangelove]

[Dr. Strangelove]

Initial victory for the AP. Trump judge rules the govt engaged in brazen viewpoint discrimination and orders them reinstated in the press pool.