Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[lineygoblue]

Maybe its time someone stood up to the bully, instead of handing him your lunch money.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Well I don't disagree with taking on China. We already were. But it's the United States that very much comes across as he bully here because we've picked a fight with every country on the planet. Do you think it's "fair" to slap a 10% tariff on countries even if they don't have tariffs on us? Israel's getting hit with a 17% tariff. Would you like to applaud Trump for punching that bully in the face?

[Dr. Strangelove]

Trump's promise to have no tax on capital gains this year is a promise he'll probably keep. But not the way he thinks.

[Da Geezer]

This is fucking madness. Jeff Buchanan wants us to take solace in that the economy survived previous shocks, but in all of those other scenarios the US government actively did things to mitigate the circumstances, these fools are doing nothing.

You can't have these multiple selloffs without introducing a big chance of other catastrophes. Did all of these fools forget the crash of 2008. Back then they fucked it up massively by letting Lehman fail because of some textbook definition of moral hazard.

Well, I went through Black Monday, October 19, 1987, when the DJIA dropped 23% in one day. Get your cash together, boys. The stock market is the only place where what was priced at X on one day gets repriced at .75X over a couple of weeks, and yet all the buyers head for the exits anyway.

I have no idea if this tariff plan will be effective, and economic theory suggests that free trade creates the most goods for the greatest number of people. The globalization elites have, for 50 years, printed money and injected it into economies in order to encourage economic growth. Core Inflation EXcludes food and energy. The WSJ reported last week that in calculating poverty, they do not include any of the benefits that the "poor person" receives from various government programs. Supposedly the income that makes you poor and qualifies you for welfare is around $ 18,000. But the median income of the poor in the US is $ 65,000 if you include all income from every welfare source. We call those who work the system like this Democrats

Further, the amounts paid for bureaucrats are about 25-30% of the economy, and those payments are added to GDP, as if bureaucrats produce anything. Today, at 6:00pm, I have a Zoning Board meeting (by zoom) in which the Board is seeking to downzone a 35 acre parcel I bought under PUD-1 zoning to agriculture. I'd say that cuts the value of the parcel in half. There is no way to fight all the NIMBYs and BANANAs that show up to these things, so I'm screwed. If I litigate the "partial taking" that is going to happen, it will cost me about $ 250,000, and I will win. Then the Board simply reinstates the zoning that existed prior to the downzone, so all that happens is I pay $ 250,000 to get back the zoning I have today. This is why I always include lawyers in that group of people who depend on the government for their income and become Democrats.

Finally, if you want free trade, do so with China's SAIC or BYD. The cheapest car BYD sells in China is the Seagull EV at $ 9,700. Hey, import that to the US and sell it for about $ 14,000! That would delight the Greens because it is an EV. That would also drive down the cost of living throughout the US since US-made cars cost around $ 30,000. Hey, it's a win-win all around! I suspect even Froot can understand what that would do to people who work in auto plants in Detroit. Similarly, we learned from COVID that 96% of our pharmaceuticals are made in China or India. But, they are CHEAP!

This is unsustainable. Globalists love this kind of thing since it makes the "Global South" richer. Nationalists want to onshore vital industries like chips and pharmaceuticals in case of war. I don't like tariffs, but I'm willing to give this a try since printing money (what the Dems call Modern Monetary Theory) clearly is not working.

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-census-defines-poverty-down-measure-poor-welfare-transfer-payments-f09be540?st=6JBAHg&reflink=article_email_share

[crashcourse]

Theres a huge amount of debt coming due soon --I read somewhere 9 trillion was borrowed though 3 and 5 year treasuries is due this year. A good portion borrowed for covid/green new deal/build back better/inflation reduction act all of which added significantly to inflation and the mess we got in right now. And if kamal was in charge we would have refinaced that 9 trillion through a much higher rate then whats gonna happen now because she would have kicked the can

this country cannot live on a credit card especially one where we pay more for the interest of our debt then we do for our national defense

can you imagine making a 100K and 1/2 of it goes on the interest of your debt alone?

Interest on the debt and entitlements make up close to 80% of our national budget

we pay more on education and medical then any other country and have nothing to show for it compared to those who pay a lot less.

Biden borrowed his way to a smoke and mirrors administration that created jobs by creating government jobs that do nothing. Government Jobs increase the deficit even more and borrowing his ass off to create an illusion the economy was fine which all blew up in his face.
The Fifty %of america that doesnt own any stock is the part of america that stands to gain the most when this all settles out

And I for one am glad its happening now instead of being kicked down the road to my kids and grandkids

Main street over wall street

[froot loops]

Yes Main Street over Wall Street. Apparently crash course has never shopped at WalMart.

[foxhopper]

There is nothing wrong with that according to DSL, froot and CGVT.

[froot loops]

There is nothing wrong with that according to DSL, froot and CGVT.

I shop at Walmart all the time. What the fuck are you talking about?

[Jeff Buchanan]

I want to see how all this shakes out. As I've argued, there are upsides which are hard to see but they are real. BTW, the Dow reversed a 1000+ point slide this morning ending down a bit over 300 points. In normal times a 0.91% decline would be bad. Compared to last week's 2d declines, its nothing if not encouraging.

It's not easy to see benefits from tariffs accruing over time when your savings depending on where you've stashed it might have already suffered a 10% decline with potentially more on the horizon. Historically, the average market decline in down markets is 15%. They've declined as much as 32% in recent down markets and in excess of 50% something like 4 times since the 1870s. https://tradethatswing.com/a-history...r6aNMz0HBPecrw

I share this link with you not as an endorsement of Vanguard but rather as a salutary look at what's happening in the global economy, There is an attached written text version of the video whose host has a strong accent and can be hard to understand. It's short (14 minutes). I recommend following the audio portion of the video with the text version in front of you. It makes a point to not base investment decisions on emotions but rather seek good advice and counsel before making any tactical decisions with your investments.......keep your head about when others are loosing there's.

https://investor.vanguard.com/investor-resources-education/article/a-conversation-for-investors-concerned-about-volatility

[froot loops]

[lineygoblue]

I guess the gang members deported to El Salvador won't be coming back to the US after all. The USSC ruled 5-4 in Trump's favor regarding his use of the Alien Enemies Act, and in ruling so, overruled Judge Boasberg's rulings to the contrary. So it doesn't matter if the planes were on the ground in the US, in US airspace, international airspace, or on the ground in El Salvador when Boasberg made his ruling. The Court ruled that Trump used the law properly.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/supreme-court-grants-trump-request-lift-stay-halting-venezuelan-deportations

Perhaps if Judge Boasberg is so concerned about the rights of convicted illegals in the US, maybe in the future, he should open his own home to them, and take care of them properly, so as to be sure their rights are not violated, and that they are treated appropriately.

---

In other news, the price of oil in the international market dropped below $60 per barrel today, the lowest its been since 2021. Saudi Arabia increased its output of oil due to other OPEC members doing the same, contrary to the agreements they had.

[Dr. Strangelove]

You are not reading the decision correctly. They lifted the stay because it was filed in the wrong venue (DC not Texas) and should have been a habeas case instead. All nine justices were unanimous in agreeing the detainees have a right to due process before being deported.

The decision also says nothing about whether a criminal gang can be classified as a “foreign government” under the Alien Enemies Act

[Dr. Strangelove]

[lineygoblue]

You are not reading the decision correctly. They lifted the stay because it was filed in the wrong venue (DC not Texas) and should have been a habeas case instead. All nine justices were unanimous in agreeing the detainees have a right to due process before being deported.

The decision also says nothing about whether a criminal gang can be classified as a “foreign government” under the Alien Enemies Act

That's not the way I read it.

As I read the story, I saw that by a 5-4 decision, the USSC lifted the order issued by Boasberg because they felt that Trump acted appropriately in deporting the criminals to El Salvador. As I stated in a post last week, none of this is about "what's right for America". What this is about is power, and who wields it. Boasberg used his teensy bit of 'authority' to bite Trump in the butt, and Trump used the USSC to toss his "authority" aside.

Now Boasberg still can come after the Trump administration for 'contempt' charges, but that's not going to make Trump do a perp walk into a local Florida jail. Which is what Boasberg and the Democrats want. So, I think that will very quietly go away.

Bottom line, the criminals exported to El Salvador aren't coming back to the US until the Salvadoran government releases them, and they cross the border again in a new Democrat administration sometime after 2028. They'll be welcomed with open arms then. Probably by AOC herself.

[Dr. Strangelove]

You need to read the actual decision. The administration has been arguing (at least on tv) that alleged illegal aliens have no right to due process. The decision reiterates that detainees must receive advance notice and give them a reasonable amount of time to seek habeas relief in the proper venue. This was a jurisdictional ruling. It is NOT affirmation that Trump "did nothing wrong". And it made no opinion on the merits of Trump using the AEA to apply to gang members.

24A931 Trump v. J. G. G. (04/07/2025)

Roberts:

The detainees also sought equitable relief against summary removal. Although judicial review under the AEA is limited, we have held that an individual subject to detention and removal under that statute is entitled to “‘judicial review’” as to “questions of interpretation and constitutionality” of the Act as well as whether he or she “is in fact an alien enemy fourteen years of age or older.” Ludecke, 335 U. S., at 163−164, 172, n. 17. (Under the Proclamation, the term “alien enemy” is defined to include “all Venezuelan citizens 14 years of age or older who are members of TdA, are within the United States, and are not actually naturalized or lawful permanent residents of the United States.” 90 Fed. Reg. 13034.) The detainees’ rights against summary removal, however, are not currently in dispute. The Government expressly agrees that “TdA members subject to removal under the Alien Enemies Act get judicial review.” Reply in Support of Application To Vacate 1. “It is well established that the Fifth Amendment entitles aliens to due process of law” in the context of removal proceedings. Reno v. Flores, 507 U. S. 292, 306 (1993). So, the detainees are entitled to notice and opportunity to be heard “appropriate to the nature of the case.” Mullane v. Central Hanover Bank & Trust Co., 339 U. S. 306, 313 (1950). More specifically, in this context, AEA detainees must receive notice after the date of this order that they are subject to removal under the Act. The notice must be afforded within a reasonable time and in such a manner as will allow them to actually seek habeas relief in the proper venue before such removal occurs.

Kavanaugh:

Importantly, as the Court stresses, the Court’s disagreement with the dissenters is not over whether the detainees receive judicial review of their transfers—all nine Members of the Court agree that judicial review is available. The only question is where that judicial review should occur. That venue question turns on whether these transfer claims belong in habeas corpus proceedings or instead may be brought under the Administrative Procedure Act. I agree with the Court’s analysis that the claims must be brought in habeas.