Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[lineygoblue]

I hate Singapore almost as much as I hate Canada

[Jeff Buchanan]

podcast from the brits--well worth a look

https://youtu.be/TwgpmNc7oak

Interesting ....... I think I figured out that Trump, through tariffs, is angling to get offshore production back on shore in the USA. This is especially true for defense procurement and, incidentally, and as an example of what can wrong with offshoring production capacity, pharmaceuticals and other health care products that slowed the US response to Covid endangering the public health. The video features an interview with SecDef Hegseth where he notes modern warfare requires hi-tech electronics which is 90% manufactured offshore, much of it in China, and subject to being restricted in any conflict with them or their surrogates.

The argument that this approach isn't going to work because the manufacturing of goods in this century is not as labor intensive (provides jobs) as it was in previous centuries. But that argument ignores the continuing need for humans to work to design, operate and maintain robotic infrastructure and other hi-tech jobs in modern manufacturing. Trump wants these kinds of products and manufacturing capacity back in America and sees tariffs as a way to make that happen.

[froot loops]

Interesting ....... I think I figured out that Trump, through tariffs, is angling to get offshore production back on shore in the USA. This is especially true for defense procurement and, incidentally, and as an example of what can wrong with offshoring production capacity, pharmaceuticals and other health care products that slowed the US response to Covid endangering the public health. The video features an interview with SecDef Hegseth where he notes modern warfare requires hi-tech electronics which is 90% manufactured offshore, much of it in China, and subject to being restricted in any conflict with them or their surrogates.

The argument that this approach isn't going to work because the manufacturing of goods in this century is not as labor intensive (provides jobs) as it was in previous centuries. But that argument ignores the continuing need for humans to work to design, operate and maintain robotic infrastructure and other hi-tech jobs in modern manufacturing. Trump wants these kinds of products and manufacturing capacity back in America and sees tariffs as a way to make that happen.

Good Lord you are trying to see an argument he has never, ever fucking made. He just likes tariffs and he thinks the McKinley tariffs of 1890 were good business (the weren't, they were one of the catalysts of the 1893 panic). All you post is magical thinking on this shit.

Like if Trump were interested in being the high tech manufacturing back to the United States he would work with Congress to help implement and improve the CHIPS act passed under Biden. In fact he called the CHIPS act horrible. You fucking pass laws, you don't unilaterally impose tariffs on every nation besides Russia and North Korea.

Also, the real important high tech things aren't actually made in China. Taiwan is the choke point. All of the important production on GPUs is done there and pretty much only there. China has to import GPUs that have been neutered.

[froot loops]

I spoke of the likelihood that negotiations between US and foreign country economic advisors over Trump's tariffs would ensue after they were imposed yesterday. IOW, Trump is interested in the coercive capacity of tariffs.This analysis agrees with that position and says Trump and his people have roughly 2 months to get most of them removed before permanent damage is done to markets world wide. I don't think this article is paywalled unless you've already visited this site and used up freebees.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/he...=mw_quote_news

[froot loops]

Jeff - If you want to educate yourself on the high tech factories (TSMC) trying to get built in the US. Here is something you should read. Having top level chip production the TSMC has in Taiwan in other places is important, if for no other reason for national defense purposes. The story doesn't touch on it, but if China were to ever invade Taiwan, there is a self destruct procedure for those Taiwanese factories and it would halt any high level GPU fabrication.

[lineygoblue]

Yeah, Jeff .. "educate yourself" ...

good grief

[THE_WIZARD_]

Progs are always the smartest in the room. Classic narcissism.

[froot loops]

It has nothing to do with progressive views, my work involves getting fucking GPUs and they don't come from China. Jeff said China, that's false. They famously don't produce high level chips. It is why the DeepSeek AI developed in China was such a scandal, they allegedly achieved unreal benchmarks without real H100s.

Getting high tech chip production in the US isn't going to be achieved by a 32 percent tariff on Taiwan. Read the fucking article and educate yourself, it's like reading about the sequel to the hilarious Michael Keaton movie Gung Ho.

[lineygoblue]

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According to the progressive woke left, all of these people are female athletes, and are allowed to play on female teams.

Oh, and its totally fair. Don't you dare say it isn't...

[Dr. Strangelove]

WTI crude has dropped almost $9 in the past 24 hours and it's still going down. When oil falls that fast it's usually not a good sign. Being driven by fears of a recession and on top of that OPEC made a surprise announcement yesterday that they are opening up the taps and increasing production.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Having top level chip production the TSMC has in Taiwan in other places is important, if for no other reason for national defense purposes.

I misstated that China makes most of the top level chips but the point as you make it above and that I made in my post still stands. The Trump Tariffs can be viewed as added benefits to CHIPS. Trump has decided to use his executive powers to impose these tariffs immediately rather than wait for Congress to beef up the CHIPS program through legislation. Makes sense to me in the kind of time sensitive circumstance Trump is working with. I think most economists weighing in on this would agree that the benefit of Trump's tariffs derive in the long game - potentially extending beyond Trump's current 4y term.

Something that bothers me in responsible debate is when one side points to an error that has no impact on the validity or fallacy of an argument presented by the other side to incorrectly render it as faulty. What you did there is just that ....... its the same weak sort of debate tactic that attacks the source not the argument itself.

Which leads to this: you post an X comment that alleges Trump spokesman have said, "this isn't a negotiation (negotiating tactic)." Despite that kind of feint, which I believe it is, I believe the Trump tariffs are intended to make use of their coercive impact. Before we jump to conclusions about this don't you think it would be smart to simply see how the leaders of foreign countries react over the next several weeks? I believe the analysis that "Trump has about two months" to obtain concessions and remove tariffs before permanent damage is made from them on global exchange markets is probably accurate.

[Dr. Strangelove]

I think you're downplaying the possibility that Trump intends to keep the tariffs in place and isn't particularly interested in deals with most of the countries of the world. What is he hoping to gain from Lesotho and Cambodia?

And we do have one reaction. China has already retaliated by increasing tariffs on all US goods by 34%

[Dr. Strangelove]

Get ready to bail out the soybean farmers. Again.

[Dr. Strangelove]

While the economy has people's attention, Trump's been purging the staff of the National Security Council and fired the Director of the National Security Agency and his deputy with no explanation

Trump fires National Security Agency director, reassigns civilian deputy director | Fox News

[Dr. Strangelove]

J.P.Morgan lifts global recession odds to 60% as US tariffs stoke fears | Reuters