Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Jeff Buchanan]

I'd say things are shaping up to look like the D's are going to get behind Biden. The power elite in the D party and senior members of Congress have examined the possible COAs, you've seen them here and elsewhere. The decision to back Joe is being influenced by how Joe is behaving by digging in his heels and how the Party sees the outcome if Joe steps aside, now or during the convention. Giggles will be the nominee and that is just not acceptable. I also think the view that Joe has served honorably in his long and distinguished political career is playing a part in the D party's decision to back him. He doesn't deserve to be humiliated and then shit-canned by the party he is a big part of.

With an empty suit propped up in the WH, the Obama's and the Clintons will be looked to by both Biden and senior congressional leadership to shape and shepherd domestic and foreign policy until 2028. It will be then that the D's can line up a top Democratic candidate. Of course, this assumes Biden will get elected and actually live to get sworn in on a date in January 2025. Or worse, Trump engineers another January 6th to over-turn the people's vote or other such shenanigans to put DJT in the Oval Office. REVOLUTION!!!

[Hannibal]

I'd say things are shaping up to look like the D's are going to get behind Biden.

I thought that might be the case, but I'm starting to change my mind. The sudden appearance of the issue on all of the outlets that have been ignoring it for four years means that a memo went out. They want him gone. I think that he's putting up a show being defiant.

[Hannibal]

The election certainly isn't rigged. It wasn't in 2020; it's not now.

If 2020 was not rigged, then it's the closest that we have ever had to a rigged one. What is the proper term for when alphabet agencies literally work in concert with social media to get one guy elected and those social media censor all dissent as "misinformation"?

Oh wait -- "fortified"

That's on top of all of the mail-in vote shenanigans that mysteriously occurred for some reason in a handful of swing states at 3 AM in the morning after those states publicly announced that they were shutting down counting the votes until morning.(most of which weren't even necessary since it would have been perfectly safe to have the election with in-person voting).

[Hannibal]

Biden's steadfast determination to stay in the race is reflected in the latest betting odds. He's now +20 over his VP after being down all weekend.

His poll numbers, though... Oof. Trump is +5.3 in the RCP average is Pennsylvania and if he flips Georgia, Penn, and Arizona, that's the election. Still early but I don't know how Biden recovers from the tailspin he's in.

For Biden to win, a lot of polls that have historically underestimated Trump are going to have to be overestimating him. But they didn't underestimate the Rs in 2022. Polling agencies might have changed their approach. With that said, the shift is probably too significant for that factor to account for all of Trump's lead.

[Mike]

The biggest problem for Biden is the swing states. Of the 7 that are considered the most important, Trump is leading all of them.

Screenshot 2024-07-08 175528.jpg

[Hannibal]

Not sure why NC is on that list TBH. He won the state in 2020 and there is no scenario in which Trump loses that state and wins the election.

[Hannibal]

Here's a question -- do any of those swing states have an abortion measure on the ballot? That'd be an advantage for Biden.

[Mike]

Good question. I know Michigan and others got that out of the way in 2022.

[Hannibal]

According to this site... Pennsylvania and Arizona

Ballot Tracker: Status of Abortion-Related State Constitutional Amendment Measures | KFF

The Pennsylvania measure is classic "party of stupid" stuff.

[Mike]

A quick search indicates Arizona has a referendum this November similar to Michigan's from '22 that will put a right to an abortion in the state constitution. Pennsylvania already settled the issue. Florida has a ballot initiative that requires 60% to pass (allowing greater abortion access) but Florida ain't going blue no way no how. Nevada has a ballot initiative but it's already legal through 24 weeks. Passage would add it to the state constitution. Those are the only happenings in states that are in play so to speak. So good for Trump in that regard.

[Hannibal]

The Pennsylvania measure would unsettle the issue by amending the constitution to state (or clarify) that it does not confer a right to an abortion.

Edit: apparently the PA measure has to re-pass the legislature to get onto the ballot? The Ds are in charge of the House there, so thankfully, that won't happen

[Mike]

Ah, that might drive D turnout in PA a little bit. Although, there could be some ticket splitting on the issue with Trump voters that don't support the initiative.

At any rate, this isn't like the immediate aftermath of Dobbs when people were hysterical and the Rs took it on the chin in a midterm that should have been very good for them. The urgency isn't there like it was 2 years ago and the vast majority of states with abortion on the ballot are already solidly red or blue.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Yet Trump walks free. He won't spend a penny of his own money on his defense because there's millions of dumb suckers in this country to plunder instead.

People like crash would have you believe the Deep State assassinated JFK and RFK but is too afraid "Real Americans" would riot in the streets should luminaries like Alex Jones, Dinesh D'Souza, or Marjorie Taylor Greene turn up dead one day.

Walks free from what?

[THE_WIZARD_]

Biden is toast. But his arrogance (actually his entire team's arrogance and thirst for power) is keeping him in the race. But he alone can make the choice unless the 25th is invoked and there is a veto override...pop some popcorn...

[Dr. Strangelove]

Former OK Senator Jim Inhofe has died after just retiring last year. He was the longest serving Senator in Oklahoma history

Former US Sen. Jim Inhofe dies at 89 after sudden illness (koco.com)