Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[hack]

The baseline question is still do they have a job? Period. If they don't have a job then saving $300/mo isn't to increase spending.

Where's that money gonna go?

[iam416]

The US does not produce enough students that are versed in IT. We have a big shortage on that and need to import a lot of immigrants from the east. Mostly India but other countries as well. They are all college graduates as far as I can tell.

IT training programs and Code Schools exist everywhere and are continuing to grow. Some require a college degree and some do not. It's unambiguously clear that an individual can learn, e.g., java in 12 weeks and get placed in an entry level IT position making $20/hr with an opportunity for advancement.

And a lot of companies are turning to 2-year schools, WFD groups and even private training companies for their workforce needs because it's cheaper than paying a headhunter/recruiting service. And, you can work out ways to intern prospective employees as part of the program to train them in your specific style.

[Hannibal]

Hanni:

I tend to think of the Hispanic "bloc" as generally hard-working and, well, religious. I think, at bottom, they're more conservative than not. The thing is -- if you come here, work your ass and succeed then you're drifting right or at least to personal accountability. My guess is we view Hispanic immigration differently. If your view is that they tend to be welfare-state recipients, then I get your conclusion.

I have seen data about the economic and social attitudes of immigrants, as well as the populations of the countries that they come from, and they are not very encouraging. They might be Conservative in that they aren't fond of gay marriage and they aren't likely to address you with your preferred pronouns, but I think that's where the Conservatism ends. Either way, the "family values" approach has never successfully brought Hispanics over to the Republican side.

The days of association between Christianity and Conservatism might be numbered. It's largely the result of the Cold War and the association of atheism with Communism. Increasingly, I think that you are seeing atheism associated with Libertarianism and there is an altruistic side of Christianity that matches up well with ideas like hospitality towards immigrants, redistribution of wealth, etc.

[iam416]

Where's that money gonna go?

If they're like me or nearly everyone I know, investment/savings. I know that when we finally finished paying off student loans I didn't all of sudden increase spending by $450 month.

But, hey, maybe it all trickles up and creates gads of new jobs.

[froot loops]

The last three jobs I've been on have been roughly 35 to 50 percent foreign workers.

[hack]

If they're like me or nearly everyone I know, investment/savings. I know that when we finally finished paying off student loans I didn't all of sudden increase spending by $450 month.

But, hey, maybe it all trickles up and creates gads of new jobs.

People without jobs are gonna have investment accounts and savings?

[Da Geezer]

about negative interest rates:

Yeah. I really have a hard time understanding the physics of that. You can get paid to borrow money? But what I do know is that if capitalism is so great then why are there next to no opportunities to park capital? And if there's so much free money out there, then who the fuck cares about our debt? Borrow more! Just use it wisely. (My vote would be infrastructure. I don't think tuition should be free, but I do think it should be a whole lot lower.)

Yup. The economist in me would say that interest rates are the market price of money, which is a fungible item. IMO, market prices determining proper (not in the ethical sense) allocation of resources is the essence of capitalism. Interest rates reflect risk. So if you buy German bonds, and they are risk-free, the rate should be zero plus the rate of inflation in order to get your real money back when the bond's principal is returned. That would indicate a price at the rate of inflation at it's lowest (a real yield of zero).

To me this means we are having de-flation at some rate under - 3%. In deflationary times, it is best to stuff dollar bills into mattresses, and that is basically what is happening. Investors now pay a fee for the Germans to hold their money. All I can say is that deflation has not been studied very much, but it has caused depressions when it happened in the past (like with the gold standard).

But, inflation being the same as a tax would imply deflation is a subsidy. Inflation benefiting holders of real assets would imply deflation helps those with paper assets (like dollars). And the biggest holders of paper assets are the banks. Way too much for this old man to think about, but that is why I brought up the subject last year. This is exactly the type of group that can kick around the matter of negative rates and come up with things others have not eventhought about.

[Hannibal]

I'd much rather de-flation than in-flation. If inflation is a stealth tax increase then deflation is a stealth tax cut.

[Da Geezer]

The baseline question is still do they have a job? Period. If they don't have a job then saving $300/mo isn't to increase spending.

Where's that money gonna go?

Best case, don't take it from its original owners in the first place. They then can spend it on the investments that generate an actual return, as proven by them having the money. Or they will they will loan money and make it the seed-corn for somebody's "great idea". Income redistribution (social justice) works against all this.

Your focus is correct. Jobs, jobs, jobs. That is the test.

[hack]

IMO, market prices determining proper (not in the ethical sense) allocation of resources is the essence of capitalism.

Right. Good explanation of the deflation aspect. Thanks. Needed that.

Overall though that sentence to veer back into capitalism's future. Interest rates reflect risk but so to rates of return on investment. Or, they should. A few years back the richest guy in Houston was Richard Kinder of Kinder Morgan. He builds pipelines, which you probably very well know given your energy-sector experience is a much lower-risk activity than exploration and production. His greatest battles have been fought and won with lobbyists in Washington. This shouldn't be what our system rewards, but this is American capitalism today.

[Da Geezer]

I'd much rather de-flation than in-flation. If inflation is a stealth tax increase then deflation is a stealth tax cut.

I'd rather have inflation than deflation. But that is the matter we need to debate. Your point is well taken. My view is undoubtedly because I hold hard assets like real estate. We are both "looking after our own sweet ass" and that leads to honest policy debates.

[hack]

Best case, don't take it from its original owners in the first place. They then can spend it on the investments that generate an actual return, as proven by them having the money. Or they will they will loan money and make it the seed-corn for somebody's "great idea". Income redistribution (social justice) works against all this.

Your focus is correct. Jobs, jobs, jobs. That is the test.

Where are those great ideas? We've talked before about the lack of appetite for lending to the real economy, and about how VC capital to phone-app startups is stuck chasing crappy opportunities itself. This story: http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer...start-ups.html. We have a whole lot of rent seeking in this economy disguised as enterpreneurship. One problem is that it requires smaller banks employing real humans as loan officers and connected to their local communities. The old, pre-Glass/Steagall version of deposit banking.

[hack]

I'd rather have inflation than deflation. But that is the matter we need to debate. Your point is well taken. My view is undoubtedly because I hold hard assets like real estate. We are both "looking after our own sweet ass" and that leads to honest policy debates.

Is there an actual argument for deflation? I get it in the immediate short term, but nobody wins long term. Calling it a tax cut seems like the ultimate way to cut off your nose to spite your face. But I haven't looked at deflation enough to know.

[froot loops]

You do not want deflation, that's crazy.

[iam416]

People without jobs are gonna have investment accounts and savings?

If they're living in their parents' houses, of course. I don't think a savings account is particular difficult to set up.

But look -- let's quit this stupid dance and with ridiculous rhetorical questions and cut to it. We disagree on the value of "indirectly" -- you see as much closer to "directly" than I do. I see not having to pay back student loans as so far attenuated from jobs creation that to argue jobs creation is flat out silly at best.