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The picture on the battlefield in Ukraine remains exceedingly hazy and getting worse as mostly Russian disinformation clouds the information space. There's visual confirmation by ISW that shows Russian forces took Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine after Ukrainian forces conducted a tactical withdrawal. This is hard to do and requires covering fires. The Russians say they routed UA forces and captured hundreds of UA soldiers and equipment. Officials in Ukraine say that is inaccurate, that a successful withdrawal was executed over a 4 day period that ended yesterday. There were some UA soldiers taken captive. Russian milbloggers talk about the advance of Russian troops into Avdiivka in much less glowing terms than official Russian sources who claim it as major victory. Its not but it looks bad.
A report appeared today that a Russian milblogger committed suicide after a Russian Colonel told him to take down his most recent posts alleging 16000 Russian troop losses and incompetent leadership since the Russian offensive in the Avdiivka direction took shape several months ago. Reportedly there is a long and detailed suicide note that criticizes military leadership for wasting thousands of soldier's lives in a tactically and strategically useless offensive. ISW has verified the authenticity of the suicide note. They also tend to assess the loss of Avdiivka as a symbolic accomplishment but not strategically important.
I think the picture that most of us get is that Ukraine is losing the war. Some of that has to do with skillfully crafted disinformation that lands in the hands of journalists reporting on the war. That's been my take for over a year. In ISW's most recent updates, they talk about the sophistication of Russia's disinformation programs with the alleged infiltration of Russian Intelligence agents throughout Europe and in both Great Britain, and Australia. There's a focus on the US because the news is so easily manipulate.
The link below is an interesting take on Putin's decades long approach to destabilize most of Europe and curtail western global influence, particularly that of the US. From ISW's perspective Putin is executing a carefully planned operation to ultimately re-establish the boundaries of the USSR if not the entire Russian empire before WWI. The west has failed to be long-sighted in assessing Putin's long term objectives and are decidedly short sighted in it's approach to grand strategy. The failure of western powers who have a stake in this to defeat Putin in Ukraine is going to allow Putin to achieve one more goal in his long range grand strategy. That is a very dangerous outcome but it appears the US and the EU/NATO is unwilling to do what it takes to defeat Russia. While sanctions are taking a bite out of Russia's war plans, Putin has skillfully maneuvered to reduce the impact of them. Words, condemnations and more sanctions are symbolic but essentially worthless.
A report appeared today that a Russian milblogger committed suicide after a Russian Colonel told him to take down his most recent posts alleging 16000 Russian troop losses and incompetent leadership since the Russian offensive in the Avdiivka direction took shape several months ago. Reportedly there is a long and detailed suicide note that criticizes military leadership for wasting thousands of soldier's lives in a tactically and strategically useless offensive. ISW has verified the authenticity of the suicide note. They also tend to assess the loss of Avdiivka as a symbolic accomplishment but not strategically important.
I think the picture that most of us get is that Ukraine is losing the war. Some of that has to do with skillfully crafted disinformation that lands in the hands of journalists reporting on the war. That's been my take for over a year. In ISW's most recent updates, they talk about the sophistication of Russia's disinformation programs with the alleged infiltration of Russian Intelligence agents throughout Europe and in both Great Britain, and Australia. There's a focus on the US because the news is so easily manipulate.
The link below is an interesting take on Putin's decades long approach to destabilize most of Europe and curtail western global influence, particularly that of the US. From ISW's perspective Putin is executing a carefully planned operation to ultimately re-establish the boundaries of the USSR if not the entire Russian empire before WWI. The west has failed to be long-sighted in assessing Putin's long term objectives and are decidedly short sighted in it's approach to grand strategy. The failure of western powers who have a stake in this to defeat Putin in Ukraine is going to allow Putin to achieve one more goal in his long range grand strategy. That is a very dangerous outcome but it appears the US and the EU/NATO is unwilling to do what it takes to defeat Russia. While sanctions are taking a bite out of Russia's war plans, Putin has skillfully maneuvered to reduce the impact of them. Words, condemnations and more sanctions are symbolic but essentially worthless.
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