Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Dr. Strangelove]

Prigozhin will lose. He’s simply too outnumbered. Main question is whether fronts in Ukraine collapse because Putin has to withdraw troops to take care of the coup.

[Dr. Strangelove]

[Dr. Strangelove]

[Jeff Buchanan]

Prigozhin will lose. He’s simply too outnumbered. Main question is whether fronts in Ukraine collapse because Putin has to withdraw troops to take care of the coup.

Agree ...... it will come to an inglorious end for Prighozen. The Russian response to incursions from the Wagner PMC into Rostov-on-Don are coming from the Rosgavardia or National Guard and FSB, Russian Internal Security agency. Early in the invasion of Ukraine, elements of the Rosgavardia moved into Belarus and then deployed into Ukraine. These units were subordinated to the area military commander. The Rosgavardia is organized as multiple self defense units within the several districts of Russia. They have an organization commander that is tasked with coordinating with the Russian Ministry of Defense. Rosgavardia units can be transferred to the Russian army and Russian army units can be transferred to the Rosgavardia. To that extent, it's possible that some Russian Army units could be transferred to Rosgavardia units defending the Rostov-on-Don region from the Wagner incursion.

In February of this year, a Rosgavardia unit transferred to Crimea and then ordered east into Kherson to join the battle there, refused orders to fight stating that Rosgavardia units are only authorized to operate inside Russia's boarders. These members of the Rosgavardia are more police than they are soldiers. They suffered heavy casualties as part of the early Russian incursion from Belarus towards Kiev and were ultimately withdrawn. There assignment to Russian army units fighting in Ukraine since then have not gone well. Their primary role in Ukraine is not at the front but rather in already occupied cities where they enforce civil order.

The biggest problem for the Russian MoD in the prosecution of Putin's war in Ukraine is not material. It is political. Already of questionable effectiveness, Russian Command and Control is going to be gravely impacted. It's been thought that how the response of the Rosgavardia and FSB plays out will determine the outcome of the Prighozen crisis. That may be partially true as it relates to the potential for Rosgavardia members to refuse orders to fight the Wagner PMC forces. However, and IMO, the Russian Army chain of command is threatened.

General Surovikin, the Russian General in charge of all Russian ground forces operating in Ukraine has denounced Prighozen's "treason." Surovikin was an ally of Prighozen in his political battles with Shoigu. Apparently not now but Russian loyalties are fragile and famously subject to the winds of whatever crisis is brewing in Russia. As I said earlier, if there's a hint that soldiers and police aren't carrying out orders to resist Wagner PMC advances and Russian senior officers start looking at which side they are going to align with and/or jokeying for plum positions after this all sorts out, the operation in Ukraine is going to be jeopardized as C&C deteriorates in country.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Seen videos of Kadyrov's boys heading to Rostov. So the Chechen rapists vs. Wagner soon.

There are claims floating out there that portions of Russian govt have already fled to St. Petersburg but taking those with a grain of salt.

Prigozhin's making grandiose claims that can't be taken seriously either but hey, going well for him so far

[Jeff Buchanan]

Grandiose claims and lies are part of the Russian drama and historically, always have been. In 1917, the Czar's military went over to the Bolsheviks sealing Nicholas' fate. Putin actually mentioned the Bolshevik Revolution in his short address this morning as being similar to the Wagner crisis. What that tells me is that his intelligence services think a serious threat to his presidency exists. It may not materialize and I don't see that it will but things are escalating beyond that which he can control. His 20 year presidency has been all about absolute control. The lack of it here is unprecedented.

Just reported that Putin has left Moscow via his private jet and headed in the direction of a private residence he has. Data from the FlightRadar tracking website, the plane reached the Tver area - about 180km from Moscow before disappearing from the system. Putin spokesman Peskov stated that Putin is working in the Kremlin.

Also just reported that ticket prices for airline travel to typical countries where Russians carry out business or head to for vacations are "surging." Allegedly, a sign that Russians with money who can travel freely are heading for the doors.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Also just reported: The governor of Russia’s Lipetsk province says the Wagner mercenary group has entered the region. The region is about 1/2 way to Moscow from Rostov-on Don where it is alleged Wagner PMC has established control over that city (I question that). About 180 miles SW of Moscow. It is also being reported that "his movement toward Moscow is not facing any resistance."

The picture being painted by press reports is in sharp contrast to Kremlin officials who are making public statements about the crisis. "Remain clam, stay at home, don't travel, everything is under control and Putin has issued appropriate orders." Reminds me of Baghdad Bob essentially saying nothing to see here as US tanks are lining up outside Iraq's capital. Still, I'm very cautious about claims from both sides and the depiction of events inside Russia coming from media sources.

[Dr. Strangelove]

This video is from Lipetsk oblast and reportedly of a pretty sorry attempt at a roadblock to slow down Wagner.

I haven’t seen anyone claiming to know if Prigozhin went to Moscow or stayed back in Rostov as his “base”.

[Dr. Strangelove]

This would be around sunset Moscow time if nothing slows them down.

[Jeff Buchanan]

This is pretty funny.....Ukrainians have routinely displayed a sense of humor regarding Russia's invasion of their country. This is a video of a Ukrainian soldier atop an air-defense vehicle chowing down on buckets of pop corn.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1621800591352635392

Edit: Added ........The comments and especially the videos in DSL's link are especially revealing. The picture being painted is that the Russian civilian population isn't calling out for Prighozen to stand down. In fact, it looks more like they are liking what's going on. The untold, muted story of Russian civilians who are opposed to Putin's war unleashed.

[Dr. Strangelove]

[Dr. Strangelove]

Here's a map of the Moscow-Rostov route. Wagner's confirmed to have gotten at least as far north as the red pin.

FzY1ch5WAAMBrQT?format=jpg&name=small.jpg

[Jeff Buchanan]

The link below reveals how some Russians feel about what's going on with the Wagner crisis. Meduza reporters interviewed about a dozen Russians some are neutral, some are supportive of Wagner PMC and "Piggy" as he is affectionately called, few will take a stand in support of the current Russian regime headed by Putin.

One of interviews resonates with my expressed fears about all of this. Worst case, Putin is deposed. Who succeeds him? A less supportive interviewee of "Piggy" calls him the "sledgehammer." That's referring to the video he posted of bashing in the head of a soldier under his command for desertion (he ran from the front lines and was subsequently caught). with a sledge. Prighozen is ruthless and brutal. The interviewee states that Putin's police have never cared about the Russian people but rule by the "sledgehammer" would be worse.

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/06/24/mom-come-out-the-civil-war-has-begun

[Jeff Buchanan]

Theories are being advanced among Russians who are less supportive of Putin's regime that Prighozen and the Wagner PMC is the foil for a disgruntled group of disillusioned Russian generals who generally share Prigohzen's characterization of Shoigu and Garissimov as incompetent or unwilling to argue for brining the full force of teh Russian military to the battle. Prighozen has been openly critical of the MoD's unwillingness to commit to defeating Ukraine's army and toppling the Zelenski regime. He and his Wagner PMC are a perfect fit to carry out the regime change the generals may be seeing - both military and political.

It is theorized that this group of unnamed army generals believes that the enormous military resources of the Russian military were held back after Putin's initial claims of "Ukraine in 3d," failed to materialize and after the Ukrainian army quickly dispatched Russian forces from Kharkiv Oblast shortly after. The current incremental approach to the conflict is hampering what this group of generals feels is the Russian armed forces full capabilities. I'd agree with that view.

The impetus for this apparent timidness is coming from Putin's reluctance to engage the Russian economy in a full scale production mode and escalate his military operation in Ukraine to a full scale war. The driving force of that timidness is the fear of NATO forces direct involvement on the side of Ukraine. If this is an accurate theory, Putin is also being targeted. At this point, I think most of this is fanciful thinking although not out of the question.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Now you see what an actual insurrection looks like Progs...