Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Dr. Strangelove]

The Wagner PMC boss, Prighozen, launched another video tirade on his Telegram channel today. In it he accuses the MoD (notably not "the president") of misleading the Russian people about the reasons for invading Ukraine. He suggests the MoD - his main target has been Shoigu, the Minister of Defense - drummed up the story that Ukraine and NATO were about to launch a full scale ground war to invade Russia and the goal of the special military operation was to preempt that.

I've heard different accounts as to why Prighozen hasn't been charged with "discrediting the Russian Military" - the standard charge to silence critics of the war, that was enthroned in Russian law by, no surprise - presidential decree - a few months ago. One is that Putin likes to create a certain amount of chaos within his political allies most of which are in high government positions inside the Kremlin. There are others called Siloviki, or, in Russian "people of force." These are Russian Oligarchs and elites who have access to Putin. Prighozen facilitates discord. The other is that framing the MoD as incompetent gives Putin a foil should things go south - and they will. Therefore he keeps Prighozen around and essentially untouchable.

The downside is that Prighozen's tirades have the potential of sewing discontent within the Russian population. Interestingly, political analysts have not seen much of an open antiwar movement in Russia, especially where you might expect it in big cities like St. Petersburg and Moscow. Reportedly there is café and bar talk, poorly organized. Nalvany's organizers have reportedly been trying to get some antiwar stuff going and launching drone attacks in and around Moscow and ground attacks of Russian boarder towns that can't be attributed to Ukraine are part of the Ukrainian's intelligence services effort to "bring the war home to the Russian upper classes."

Jeff, in the past couple of hours Prighozen now claims the Russian military deliberately bombed a Wagner base and killed a bunch of his guys. He's "declaring war" on the Russian military leadership. Dunno if it's all a bunch of show and bullshit but he's ratcheting up the rhetoric even further.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Could all be an act to catch Ukraine off guard or over confident but weird things happening in Russia right now.

[crashcourse]

I think we all knew Hunter used his father's political influene to squeeze people for millions. I mean, I think even the Progs here acknowledge that Hunter is a corrupt fuck up. They may not be able to do it without some "whataboutisms", but they'll do it.

What's been less clear is the extent to which, if any, The Chairman was involved. That text doesn't look great, BUT -- and I want to raise this -- it's certainly conceivable the jizzrag was just throwing his dad's name around and The Chairman wasn't actually really sitting next to him. I mean, if I had to beat on that fucktwat telling the truth or lying, I'm pushing all in the latter. So, the text certainly confirms what we all know -- or should all know -- about the doucher, and it suggests The Chairman's involvement, but inconclusively (to my mind).

Photos Place Hunter Biden At Father's House The Day He Invoked Dad’s Name to Threaten Chinese Business Partner (freebeacon.com)

[Dr. Strangelove]

So yeah….maybe not all for show. Prigozhin actually trying something or he’s being purged.

[Dr. Strangelove]

[THE_WIZARD_]

Nice filibuster DSL

[Jeff Buchanan]

Nice filibuster DSL

Maybe ....... He's addressing the question I had earlier today: why does Prighozen not get charged with "discrediting the Russian Military?" Well, he's being investigated for calling for an "armed rebellion" based on the declarations he made today.

I suspect he's getting squeezed by forces inside the Kremlin not on his side, doesn't like it and thinks his stature as the alleged hero of Bakhmut with Putin is going to bail him out. Doesn't look like it. He's the ultimate Russian thug and gangster. He's probably served his purpose and will be quietly dispensed with. Think falling out of the window of a 10 story HQ building. There won't be a spectacle which is exactly what he'd like.

OTH, he does have a sizeable military force supposedly at his disposal and what the Kremlin can call upon to disperse any kind of large force he might bring to bear in Moscow may be in question - everything is at the front right now. This is inconvenient.

[THE_WIZARD_]

He's avoiding Textgate

[Dr. Strangelove]

Prigozhin’s coup attempt is “obviously” an attempt to distract from clear cut evidence that The Chairman was shaking down Chinese communist officials.

[Dr. Strangelove]

If they start playing Swan Lake at 2am then shit’s really hit the wall.

[Jeff Buchanan]

A summary of events since Prighozen's first Telegram channel posts were made calling for what the Kremlin has called a call encouraging civil unrest.

• This is going to create a news frenzy of wild claims. It's the spectacle that I said in my last post was what Prighozen wanted.
• The Kremlin has mobilized FSB units and their are substantiated reports that scaled up police type operations combined with military air operations with unknown coordination are either in or headed to Rostov-on-Don, a major city in southeastern Russia. It is here that it is alleged that Prighozen is located.
• The activities going on between Kremlin leadership and the Wagner group forces and thier commander cannot be brushed under the carpet or propagandized out of existence. Accordingly, this a huge deal.
• It's not likely to end well for Prighozen but it has the potential of demonstrating that Putin is weak and cannot control what is potentially a 5 alarm fire that is a threat to his leadership and will only get worse before it's extinguished. If the mood being advanced by Prighozen's ideas catches on with Putin's allies (high ranking Kremlin officials and Siloviki) and this crowd starts heading for the doors, things could deteriorate quickly.
• Keep in mind. This is a nuclear state. People in high places like Prighozen will potentially seek to find advantage in any chaos that ensues over the next 24-48h. Thus, you have the potential for unsecured nuclear arms falling into the hands and control of Russians or groups of them who are much worse in all respects than Putin. Regardless of whether Moscow establishes control of the situation and is able to subdue and isolate Prighozen and his paramilitary soldiers - whihc I have to think they will - this event has untold consequences for Putin.
• Moreover, it puts at risk Putin's operations in Ukraine. Incredibly distracting both from a psychological and material standpoint. You can't fight a foreign war when there's the potential for a revolution in your own country.

[Jeff Buchanan]

AP story with plenty of details as of 10 pm EST

The owner of the Wagner private military contractor made his most direct challenge to the Kremlin yet on Friday, calling for an armed rebellion aimed at ousting Russia’s defense minister. The security services reacted immediately by calling for the arrest of Yevgeny Prigozhin.

In a sign of how seriously the Kremlin was taking the threat, security was heightened in Moscow and in Rostov-on-Don, which is home to the Russian military headquarters for the southern region and also oversees the fighting in Ukraine.

While the outcome of the confrontation was still unclear, it appeared likely to further hinder Moscow’s war effort as Kyiv’s forces were probing Russian defenses in the initial stages of a counteroffensive.

Prigozhin claimed early Saturday that his forces had crossed into Russia from Ukraine and had reached Rostov, saying they faced no resistance from young conscripts at checkpoints and that his forces “aren’t fighting against children.”

“But we will destroy anyone who stands in our way,” he said in one of a series of angry video and audio recordings posted on social media beginning late Friday. “We are moving forward and will go until the end.”

He claimed that the chief of the General Staff, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, scrambled warplanes to strike Wagner’s convoys, which were driving alongside ordinary vehicles. Prigozhin also said his forces shot down a Russian military helicopter that fired on a civilian convoy, but there was no independent confirmation.

And despite Prigozhin’s statements that Wagner convoys had entered Rostov-on-Don, there was no confirmation of that yet on Russian social networks. Videos showed heavy trucks blocking highways leading to the city, long convoys of National Guard trucks were seen on a road outside Rostov-on-Don and armored vehicles were roaming the streets.

Prigozhin said Wagner field camps in Ukraine were struck by rockets, helicopter gunships and artillery fire on orders from Gerasimov following a meeting with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, at which they decided to destroy Wagner.

The Wagner forces have played a crucial role in Russia’s war in Ukraine, succeeding in taking the city where the bloodiest and longest battles have taken place, Bakhmut. But Prigozhin has increasingly criticized Russia’s military brass, accusing it of incompetence and of starving his troops of weapons and ammunition.

Prigozhin, who said he had 25,000 troops under his command, said late Friday his troops would punish Shoigu in an armed rebellion and urged the army not to offer resistance. “This is not a military coup, but a march of justice,” Prigozhin declared.

The National Anti-Terrorism Committee, which is part of the Federal Security Services, or FSB, has charged him with calling for an armed rebellion, which carries a penalty of up to 20 years in prison.

The FSB urged Wagner’s contract soldiers to arrest Prigozhin and refuse to follow his “criminal and treacherous orders.” It called his statements a “stab in the back to Russian troops” and said they amounted to fomenting an armed conflict in Russia.

President Vladimir Putin has been informed about the situation and “all the necessary measures were being taken,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

Heavy military trucks and armored vehicles were seen in several parts of central Moscow early Saturday, and soldiers toting assault rifles were deployed outside the main building of the Defense Ministry. The area around the presidential administration near Red Square was blocked, snarling traffic.

But even amid the heightened military presence, downtown bars and restaurants were filled with customers. At one club near the headquarters of the FSB, people were dancing in the street near the entrance.

Prigozhin, whose feud with the Defense Ministry dates back years, had refused to comply with a requirement that military contractors sign contracts with the ministry before July 1. In a statement late Friday, he said he was ready to find a compromise but “they have treacherously cheated us.”

“Today they carried out a rocket strike on our rear camps, and a huge number of our comrades got killed,” he said. The Defense Ministry denied attacking the Wagner camps.

Prigozhin claimed that Shoigu went to the Russian military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don personally to direct the strike and then “cowardly” fled.

“This scum will be stopped,” he said of Shoigu.

“The evil embodied by the country’s military leadership must be stopped,” he shouted, urging the army not to offer any resistance to Wagner as it moves to “restore justice.”

Col. Gen. Sergei Surovikin, the deputy commander of the Russian group of forces fighting in Ukraine, urged the Wagner forces to stop any move against the army, saying it would play into the hands of Russia’s enemies, who are “waiting to see the exacerbation of our domestic political situation.”

Tatiana Stanovaya, a political analyst, predicted this would be the end of Prigozhin.

“Now that the state has actively engaged, there’s no turning back,” she tweeted. “The termination of Prigozhin and Wagner is imminent. The only possibility now is absolute obliteration, with the degree of resistance from the Wagner group being the only variable. Surovikin was dispatched to convince them to surrender. Confrontation seems totally futile.”

Lt. Gen. Vladimir Alexeyev, a top military officer, denounced Prigozhin’s move as “madness” that threatened to unleash a civil war.

“It’s a stab in the back to the country and the president,” he said. “It’s impossible to imagine a stronger blow to the image of Russia and its armed forces. Such a provocation could only be staged by enemies of Russia.”

The Defense Ministry said in a statement that Ukraine’s military was concentrating troops to launch an attack around Bakhmut to take advantage of “Prigozhin’s provocation.” It said Russian artillery and warplanes were firing on Ukrainian forces as they prepared to start an offensive in the area.

In Washington, a spokesman for the National Security Council, Adam Hodge, said: “We are monitoring the situation and will be consulting with allies and partners on these developments.”

[Jeff Buchanan]

Now, it's officially a "mutiny" albeit not as in a small group of disgruntled sailors sick of discipline meted out by their Captain.

Nope this a very smart thug in command of his own army of 25K mercenaries who is seeking to use this group (Wagner PMC) to force the ouster of the current Russian Defense Minister, Shoigu, and his overall Russian military commander, Garissimov.

He'll fail by all accounts but this is a very bad look for Putin and his army. If Ukraine can leverage this mess for Moscow into something that amounts to any significant terretorial gains in any of Ukrain's Russian occupied and claimed as annexed Oblasts, it's going to be a military disaster for Russia beyond what it already is politically.

[Dr. Strangelove]

There are reports and emerging evidence that Wagner has taken control of Rostov, a strategic center in Russia where most troops heading to eastern Ukraine or Crimea go through first.

[Jeff Buchanan]

If Prighozin's mutterings can be taken at face, Russian soldiers are not opposing Wagner's advances. If Putin's troops won't defend their country, he's fucked.

I am shocked that Prighozin went rogue. I'm not shocked that the Russian army soldiers aren't putting up a fight to resist Wagner. As DSL points out, this city is full of them and a lot of them had no interest in going to fight and die in Ukraine.