Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[froot loops]

I thought it was a good strategy. Bill rambled on a little too much in the first half, he could have edited down the first 20 years of his relationship with that's his style. Vice President Joe Biden and President Barack Obama will check off the boxes that you were looking for. As her husband Bill did a good job of framing her life as a public servant, other speakers can frame Trump as a con man/puppet of Putin.

[Hannibal]

I may have said this before, but IMHO the election wil ultimately come down to people voting for Trump or against Trump. Granted, there are legitimate #NEVERHILLARY people and genuine Hillary fans, but I perceive them as being much fewer in number than the people who have strong negative or positive opinions about Trump. Hillary is an unpopular choice but not necessarily a scary one.

[hack]

Gonna be interesting to see what they do with the Putin's Bitch angle. Trump clearly doesn't think it's hurting him, and he's got better instincts than all of the rest of them.

Maybe it's just because of where the message comes from. People just don't want to be lied to anymore, and they don't have as much practice cutting through Trump's BS as they do Washington's. Hillary maybe needs to find an outsider to start calling Trump Putin's Puppet.

I still don't understand the polls. Trump's historically unpopular with blacks and Latinos, and Hillary is going to get more typical GOP voters than a Dem has in years from the patrician establishment types who won't vote for Trump. The polls just don't add up.

[Hannibal]

I think that Trump assuaged some of the Republican #NEVERTRUMP crowd with his VP pick. There's part of your answer.

[hack]

Seems a part of it, sure. The Republicans I am most exposed to these days are the Washington types though. I don't think most of them think that way. They are focused loudly on national security concerns and the symbolism of it. The dignity of the office, the process when Trump has to receive King Salman, etc. etc.

[froot loops]

We'll see how good Trump's instincts are

You can only do so much for a convention.

People pay attention to the polls but they are much more useful later on. And this election is going to be a big experiment on how much election consultants matter and get out the vote efforts matter. Trump has a pitiful campaign apparatus and no financial arsenal. There is a chance that he gets wiped off the mat because of this. I'm not sure the polls are equipped to adjust for this. Registered voters versus likely voters, what happens if you have one side that has no real effort to translate those. I think Yglesias had an article on this, we've never seen a matchup at the Presidential level so asymmetrical in terms of organizations. Maybe none of this matters.

[hack]

I read that she's already spent $50m on ads, to his nothing. Another example of that.

I would hesitate to draw any conclusions about future elections though. Trump seems singular.

[froot loops]

Yes he is singular, that's why it is fascinating as theoretical experiment. He is the control sample. You'll never have another Presidential election with this kind or organizational mismatch.

Conventional wisdom has held that Bush in 2004 and Obama in 2008 and 2012 benefitted greatly from their advantage in analytics in the GOTV effort. So much so that, Romney truly thought he was going to win on election night. They were gobsmacked that they had to make a concession speech. They didn't have close to the ground game that Obama had but they at least had a functioning one. Trump doesn't believe in any of it.

[hack]

Srsly? I never thought Romney had a chance at all. That's interesting.

[entropy]

I got a mosquito bite on my ball sack. Really tough to sit in all day meetings and not itch it.


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[Hannibal]

Romney (and many other Repubs) thought that he would win because the polls at the time were sampling more Democrats than Republicans and he was winning with the independents. That seemed counter to the results of the 2010 mid-terms and party registration trends. Turns out, the polls were accurate and turnout made the difference. Romney still won the independents by 5%. Wouldn't be surprised to see the same thing happen here since, as has been pointed out many times, Trump genuinely has no campaign besides speeches and Twitter.

[Mike]

Srsly? I never thought Romney had a chance at all. That's interesting.

Me neither. The polls indicated a fairly comfortable Obama victory but the Romney camp subscribed to something else. He seriously was blindsided by the loss. Which I find puzzling.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Jeffrey Lord (Trump surrogate whose got one hell of a tough job) on why Trump won't release his tax returns: "Did Washington or Lincoln release theirs?"

[Wild Hoss]

About the closest thing that you will get to that measure...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/direction_of_country-902.html

Direction of the Country RCP average:
Right Direction -- 23.1
Wrong Track -- 68.9

Who that 68.9% blames for their woes matters alot.



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[hack]

So Trump just invited more Russian hacking, to find Hillary's lost emails. HOLY FUCK. That's treason.