Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[lineygoblue]

Still haven't watched a minute of either convention. Nothing new to be heard.

[Hannibal]

Electoral map update: This site currently shows an "If the election were held today, who would win?" EV tally of 288 for Clinton, 221 for Trump, and the 29 EVs of Florida up in the air.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

The site tends to only take the latest one or two polls instead of a few weeks worth like RCP, so take it for what it's worth. New Mexico has no poll, so the map substitutes the 2012 results. The map shows Trump picking up Iowa, Nevada, and Ohio from 2012, with Hillary swinging NC over to blue. That one's a little bit of a head scratcher to me but, whatever, the polls...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html

RCP electoral map shows Clinton, 202, Trump 164, with 172 tossups. RCP uses more polls for their average and so their numbers change slowly. FWIW I don't think that Georgia, Wisconsin, or Oregon are legitimate tossups at all. If you count those for Trump and Clinton, respectively, then Trump's floor is 190 and Clinton's floor is 219. So unless there is a landmark change in attitudes at this point, it will almost certainly be a close Clinton victory.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Virginia and NC have far fewer of the rust belt white blue collar voters that Trump's explicitly targeting in Ohio, PA, and Michigan. Both states are more white collar and have a higher % of blacks I believe. Republicans in Virginia in particular tend to be very Establishment.

I don't think denouncing free trade deals will resonate with white voters in those two states (or Colorado or New Hampshire) as much as it does in the Midwest.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Still, it's very weird to think of Virginia as being a safer bet for the Dems than Ohio or PA

[CGVT]

I know that being an Honorary Chair of a campaign means nothing, but I cannot understand why the hell Clinton would make Wasserman-Schultz an Honorary Chair, especially immediately following her resignation.

It does not seem like a wise move politically and smacks of arrogance.

This has been the strangest election year that I can remember.

[Hannibal]

Colorado is pretty much another Illinois or Washington at this point. No point in even campaigning there.

New Hampshire has that "We B Independent" reputation that should favor Trump. But we'll see. In the end, it won't decide anything. If I'm doing my math right, then Trump has to run a clean sweep of Iowa, Arizona, Nevada, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio to win. It's not out of the realm of possibility since the undecideds will probably break in the same direction in most of the country. The flipside of that, of course, is that Hillary could run a clean sweep in all of those swing states too, which is pretty much what happened in 2012.

[lineygoblue]

Hillary's party probably thinks they can use the "bathroom law" against the R's in North Carolina, to somehow swing voters there her way. But I think that's a miscalculation. There's a reason why the bathroom law was conceived, and still remains in NC. Its because a majority of the voters there think its a good law. There's no "massive outcry" against it within the state. Most of the gripes against it have come from outside.

NC is smack in the middle of the Bible belt. If Hillary's party wants to carry that state, she's going to have to deal with those folks. I suspect she'll write it off, and move on to friendlier climates. She won't need NC anyway.

[hack]

I know that being an Honorary Chair of a campaign means nothing, but I cannot understand why the hell Clinton would make Wasserman-Schultz an Honorary Chair, especially immediately following her resignation.

It does not seem like a wise move politically and smacks of arrogance.

This has been the strangest election year that I can remember.

I don't get it either. Things could change but right now the perception is that Hillary really needs those Bernie voters to flip for her. Why do something entirely symbolic that pisses them off?

[Hannibal]

When it comes to journalism, I probably have no idea what I'm talking about compared with you.

From where I am sitting, the shittiness of the mainstream media predated Fox News or the Web 2.0 era, and the problems that persist are largely unrelated to the need to compete cost-wise. They are the result of political bias, and a crippling intellectual dishonesty that stems from narcicissm and arrogance.

[froot loops]

If you think the Michelle Obama speech was merely good then you're a tough customer Hack. I thought it had everything you would want in a professional politician's speech. Considering how chaotic the floor was during the first three hours she had them all enthralled. It was much better than her previous good speeches at the DNC.

The command of the room was amazing, it was like The Rock at his peak.

[AlabamAlum]

No doubt, Wassermann-Schultz knows of some HRC skeletons. Much better to throw a symbolic bone her way and keep her quiet so she can have thoughts of salvaging her career.

[AlabamAlum]

And not to defend the DNC, but this peek into how the sausage is made should surprise no one.

[Hannibal]

The real mystery to me is why the DNC worked so hard to undermine Bernie when he never had a chance of winning anyways. Hillary beat him soundly in the popular vote and she beat him with the non-superdelegates.

[froot loops]

I haven't read anything on it but I imagine the honorary chair was a way to get her to step aside.

[CGVT]

No doubt, Wassermann-Schultz knows of some HRC skeletons. Much better to throw a symbolic bone her way and keep her quiet so she can have thoughts of salvaging her career.

Seems like a reasonable explanation.

I would think that courting the Bernie supporters would be more important than appeasing the hard core party members, but I could be wrong.