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It appears to analysts that the Russian "winter offensive" undertaken starting in January and supplemented by a supposed 300,000 mobilized Russian soldiers has ended with only marginal and tactically or strategically insignificant territorial gains. Both ISW and the UK defense analysts believe that Russian combat losses have been so heavy as to make it impossible for Russia to continue offensive operations with objectives in eastern Ukraine. Notably this is well short of Putin's stated goals for the end of March. Analysts also believe that because of the Russian army's allocation of fighting assets to Bakhmut they are vulnerable to counter-offensives from Ukraine. Milbloggers are predicting that to happen, the most likely objective is Melitipol the S Ukraine Russian declared capitol of Zaphorizia Oblast - the city by the same name and further west they did not come close to occupying. That's snap shot of what's happening in the battle space.
Meanwhile back at the ranch, Putin is doing everything he can to hide the bad news from Ukraine. That doesn't get talked about and what the Russians are fed is grossly exaggerated descriptions of battle field wins. As I mentioned, Putin went to Mariupol yesterday during darkness, along with visiting Crimea during daylight hours. No one wanted Putin to see the massive destruction to the city and that little reconstruction had taken place. Still, it was a political statement for Putin.
Today, he's entertaining Chairman Xi with Xi ostensibly this peacemaker. The problem is that Xi apparently sees Russia's landgrab in Ukraine as legit and a result of the threat of eastward NATO expansion. Putin wants Ukraine as a demilitarized buffer state with a puppet government in Kiev loyal to the Kremlin. That's going to be a non-starter for the Zelenski government and Russia is not in an overwhelmingly favorable negotiating position like Putin likely thought they would be by now. As western aid feeds Ukraine, I don't see how China can sit on the sidelines and probably won't. Xi is not going to see the Russian president, with whom he has parallel global objectives (the weakening of the US), suffer any kind of defeat. Putin and all his mouth pieces continue to state Moscow's maximalist objectives in Ukraine.
Meanwhile back at the ranch, Putin is doing everything he can to hide the bad news from Ukraine. That doesn't get talked about and what the Russians are fed is grossly exaggerated descriptions of battle field wins. As I mentioned, Putin went to Mariupol yesterday during darkness, along with visiting Crimea during daylight hours. No one wanted Putin to see the massive destruction to the city and that little reconstruction had taken place. Still, it was a political statement for Putin.
Today, he's entertaining Chairman Xi with Xi ostensibly this peacemaker. The problem is that Xi apparently sees Russia's landgrab in Ukraine as legit and a result of the threat of eastward NATO expansion. Putin wants Ukraine as a demilitarized buffer state with a puppet government in Kiev loyal to the Kremlin. That's going to be a non-starter for the Zelenski government and Russia is not in an overwhelmingly favorable negotiating position like Putin likely thought they would be by now. As western aid feeds Ukraine, I don't see how China can sit on the sidelines and probably won't. Xi is not going to see the Russian president, with whom he has parallel global objectives (the weakening of the US), suffer any kind of defeat. Putin and all his mouth pieces continue to state Moscow's maximalist objectives in Ukraine.
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