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The linked assessment by ISW is way too complicated to summarize it. It details the emerging conflicts between Putin's inner circle of trusted Russians, political allies and loyal military officers. It exposes the result of those conflicts: the clear inability of Russian forces, including the parallel Wagnerites, to meaningfully advance in pursuit of Putin's newest goals - the complete seizure and control of the Donbas by March 31st. Both the Ukrainians and Russians have elevated the importance of this town beyond symbolism noting it is the door to the pathway of westward conquest for Russia and what Ukraine wants to stop in its tracks.
In my recent posts, I've been talking about the difficulties Prigozhin's Wagner PMC are having seizing and controlling Bakhmut and the exceedingly high casualty rates being absorbed to achieve that objective. ISW believes Putin is hanging Prigozhin out to dry to diminish the political threat Putin probably believes he is to his regime. He's doing this by diminishing his access to the information space and withholding war fighting supplies that may or may not actually be available. Either way Wagner PMC fails and Putin can use him as a scapegoat for Russia's military failure in Bakhmut.
The ISW assessment is very detailed. It's not for the casually interested in the war in Ukraine. Fundamentally, ISW implies Moscow is self destructing it's war in Ukraine by elevating the petty infighting to a problem to be solved over winning on the battlefield. if Putin is to come out of this shit-storm still as the respected, all powerful President of Russia he has fashioned himself to be he's fucking away his chances of doing that. The Russian army has had enough trouble winning on the battlefield before all the political infighting surfaced recently. This is going to make it much less likely that Putin can force a negotiated settlement on the Zelenski government on Moscow's terms. It's looking more likely that the opposite will happen.
In my recent posts, I've been talking about the difficulties Prigozhin's Wagner PMC are having seizing and controlling Bakhmut and the exceedingly high casualty rates being absorbed to achieve that objective. ISW believes Putin is hanging Prigozhin out to dry to diminish the political threat Putin probably believes he is to his regime. He's doing this by diminishing his access to the information space and withholding war fighting supplies that may or may not actually be available. Either way Wagner PMC fails and Putin can use him as a scapegoat for Russia's military failure in Bakhmut.
The ISW assessment is very detailed. It's not for the casually interested in the war in Ukraine. Fundamentally, ISW implies Moscow is self destructing it's war in Ukraine by elevating the petty infighting to a problem to be solved over winning on the battlefield. if Putin is to come out of this shit-storm still as the respected, all powerful President of Russia he has fashioned himself to be he's fucking away his chances of doing that. The Russian army has had enough trouble winning on the battlefield before all the political infighting surfaced recently. This is going to make it much less likely that Putin can force a negotiated settlement on the Zelenski government on Moscow's terms. It's looking more likely that the opposite will happen.
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