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This 12 point peace plan for ending the conflict in Ukraine put forward by the Chinese is generating a lot of stories from the various news reporting agencies. It is a nothing burger. That is because the two sides aren't close to negotiating. Putin and his mouth pieces, Dmitry Peskov and Sergey Lavrov, have made it clear that for negotiations to start, the Zelenski government has to recognize the "territorial realities." i.e., the 3 Ukrainian oblasts (containing the Donbas and the landbridge between this and Crimea) plus Crimea that Russia declared in July are part of the Russian Federation. The Russians do not militarily or administratively control The Donetsk, Luhansk and Zaphorizia Oblasts.
In turn, The Zelenski government has set as a precondition to negotiations, the withdrawal of all Russian armed forces to beyond the pre-2014 internationally recognized Russian borders - that includes Crimea. I read an article in the Atlantic this week that opined that there are 3 possible outcomes to this loggerhead: (1) Ukraine wins a complete victory over Russian forces inside Ukraine's internationally recognized boarders and forces an unconditional withdrawal, (2) Russia ousts the Zelenski government and installs a pro-Kremlin government in Ukraine, (3) A stalemate where neither armed force can achieve outcomes (1) or (2). Two of these outcomes favor Putin.
Putin is right to believe the west will tire of providing military and economic support to Ukraine in the medium term - defined as extending past the US elections in November 2024. Russia has a long history, considering it's imperial character, of out-lasting those that try to attack Russia or as Putin has put it, "tear Russia apart.". Putin calls on this history to rally support from inside Russia and, for the rest of the world, frames Russia's use of military force in Ukraine as a necessary defensive undertaking given NATO's eastward expansion driven by the US's penchant for it's colonial policies. That line is working inside Russia and to a large extent outside of it.
The only way Ukraine achieves a complete victory is if the west stops dickering and provides everything on Zelenski's wish list. Given the incompetence of the Russian army to seize and hold terrain of strategic value beyond what it has taken a year to only marginally accomplish, given the staggering equipment and personnel losses already sustained by the Russians, Putin's armed forces are vulnerable to defeat. Putin does not need to be crushed. All it takes is enough pressure from the Ukrainian armed forces to make Putin face his own set of "territorial realities,' meaning he has seriously over-reached. Russia's ability to replace combat losses and continue to supply his forces in Ukraine with replacement soldiers, armor, artillery and ammunition is in doubt. Time, though, is on Putin's side. A window of opportunity to make Putin reconsider the costs of his initial and subsequently failing objectives is narrowing.
In turn, The Zelenski government has set as a precondition to negotiations, the withdrawal of all Russian armed forces to beyond the pre-2014 internationally recognized Russian borders - that includes Crimea. I read an article in the Atlantic this week that opined that there are 3 possible outcomes to this loggerhead: (1) Ukraine wins a complete victory over Russian forces inside Ukraine's internationally recognized boarders and forces an unconditional withdrawal, (2) Russia ousts the Zelenski government and installs a pro-Kremlin government in Ukraine, (3) A stalemate where neither armed force can achieve outcomes (1) or (2). Two of these outcomes favor Putin.
Putin is right to believe the west will tire of providing military and economic support to Ukraine in the medium term - defined as extending past the US elections in November 2024. Russia has a long history, considering it's imperial character, of out-lasting those that try to attack Russia or as Putin has put it, "tear Russia apart.". Putin calls on this history to rally support from inside Russia and, for the rest of the world, frames Russia's use of military force in Ukraine as a necessary defensive undertaking given NATO's eastward expansion driven by the US's penchant for it's colonial policies. That line is working inside Russia and to a large extent outside of it.
The only way Ukraine achieves a complete victory is if the west stops dickering and provides everything on Zelenski's wish list. Given the incompetence of the Russian army to seize and hold terrain of strategic value beyond what it has taken a year to only marginally accomplish, given the staggering equipment and personnel losses already sustained by the Russians, Putin's armed forces are vulnerable to defeat. Putin does not need to be crushed. All it takes is enough pressure from the Ukrainian armed forces to make Putin face his own set of "territorial realities,' meaning he has seriously over-reached. Russia's ability to replace combat losses and continue to supply his forces in Ukraine with replacement soldiers, armor, artillery and ammunition is in doubt. Time, though, is on Putin's side. A window of opportunity to make Putin reconsider the costs of his initial and subsequently failing objectives is narrowing.
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