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I'm not a big fan of Sean Penn as an actor or activist but when he said, if Russian wins this war (in Ukraine) we (the Western powers, largely the US) are fucked.
I think that's an accurate assessment along with his harangue against the US (and Europe) for not providing Ukraine enough help early on and the foot ragging that has characterized military aid in general. Failing to boot Russian forces out of Ukraine with a resounding show of western military support in the early months of the war has given Putin leverage - he has his foot in the back door of Ukraine and is set to wage a long war of attrition to obtain his objectives - the fall of Ukraine - which Russia has the wherewithal to do just that. But that's history. There has been of late, demonstrations of EU solidarity on supplying Ukraine with the weapons they need to at least and in the short term keep Putin from advancing further than his forces already have.
With deaths and injuries mounting among the sons of Russian mothers, why hasn't there been more opposition to the war and to Putin inside Russia? I read an article in the NYTs today that outlines what Russia has become in a year of fighting, as Putin has called it, a "patriotic war." Gone are the Europeanization of Russian big cities that had taken place during most of Putin's presidency and along with it the lifestyles Russian had begun to enjoy. Replacing the "poison of the west' as Putin describes it, is a repressive regime that brooks no challenge to the political power of Vladimir Putin and those within his inner circle along with absolute obedience to the state. In a matter of a year, Putin has fashioned a Czarist Imperial Russia with expansionist goals to be obtained well beyond it's current boarders, with him leading it. He is overjoyed.
The Russian populace is on a war footing and, for the most part, because of Putin's propaganda machine, citizens support him and his war in Ukraine. He characterizes this war as "NATOzism" where Russia is fighting for it survival against a US led NATO coalition set on destroying Russia in a similar way to how Hitler's Nazis planned to conquer Russia. There is constant reference in Russian media and talk shows to Ukraine's Azov Battalion who, undeniably, has ideological connections to Nazism and allegedly, but falsely claim committed genocide against Russian citizens in Ukraine. SImilarities between Russia's heroic, patriotic war v. Hitler's Germany - a war of attrition fought over many years - abound. Putin is more popular than ever within Russia either that or he is silently held in distain. Putin's security apparatus has made it way too dangerous to speak up.
I've argued this from the start. The outcome of this conflict has immense consequences not just for Ukraine but for the ideologies embodied in western liberal democracies, as flawed as they seem to be at times. A victory for Putin, even a negotiated settlement that accepts the status quo of his Ukrainian land grab, will show that brutal multipolar authoritarianism is ascending and western style liberal democracy and pax Americana is in decline. It will shift the global balance of power away from the US, Europe and towards multipolar powers, all of them creating mischief, heightening global tensions, where their national interests might be served. Those players will be China, Russia, Iran and NK in an alliance completely unfavorable to freedoms enjoyed in the west. This alliance has as it's intention paramount global influence at the least and imperial conquest and control at the most. Make no mistake. Allow Putin to achieve his goals in Ukraine and that is exactly where we will be.
How do we stop Putin? Worrisomely, only about 1/3 of the world's nations have condemned Russia's invasion. ONE THIRD. The rest either fully support his invasion or remain uncommitted in varying degrees to restrain Putin's aggression. Much of this has to do with Putin's carefully crafted raison d'etre for invading Ukraine a year ago which, at face, is entirely believable. He's successfully argued, at least in the minds of 2/3 of the world's nations, that NATO expansion and concurrently western ideologies was, and continues to be, an existential threat to the Russian Federation, it's existence and the Russian way of life. Putin goes on to explain that the US and Europe have used Ukraine, never a real state and always a part of Russia as a means of advancing the excesses of the west to entice those who embrace socialistic values and the the subordination of self to the state to become westernized themselves. Putin goes on to allege that he US and EU (NATO) advance western ideologies without describing the moral decay and inequalities so prevalent in America. He embellishes that argument with what used to be right out of the Soviet and Communist playbook - the decadence of western capitalism practiced in it's extremes instead of controlled by the state and the depravity of people who advance themselves under that economic system.
Putin responds only to power where faced with an unfavorable outcome he calculates the costs of continuing attempts to achieve his objectives in Ukraine to be too high. IMO, that's achieved with much more forcefulness on the part of the western powers in preventing further tactical gains of the Russian army on the ground, denying the Russian air forces air superiority and the use of those skies over Ukraine to attack Ukrainian infrastructure and making their continued occupation of the Ukrainian territories they presently occupy, including Crimea, untenable and unsustainable. Doable. Do it.
I think that's an accurate assessment along with his harangue against the US (and Europe) for not providing Ukraine enough help early on and the foot ragging that has characterized military aid in general. Failing to boot Russian forces out of Ukraine with a resounding show of western military support in the early months of the war has given Putin leverage - he has his foot in the back door of Ukraine and is set to wage a long war of attrition to obtain his objectives - the fall of Ukraine - which Russia has the wherewithal to do just that. But that's history. There has been of late, demonstrations of EU solidarity on supplying Ukraine with the weapons they need to at least and in the short term keep Putin from advancing further than his forces already have.
With deaths and injuries mounting among the sons of Russian mothers, why hasn't there been more opposition to the war and to Putin inside Russia? I read an article in the NYTs today that outlines what Russia has become in a year of fighting, as Putin has called it, a "patriotic war." Gone are the Europeanization of Russian big cities that had taken place during most of Putin's presidency and along with it the lifestyles Russian had begun to enjoy. Replacing the "poison of the west' as Putin describes it, is a repressive regime that brooks no challenge to the political power of Vladimir Putin and those within his inner circle along with absolute obedience to the state. In a matter of a year, Putin has fashioned a Czarist Imperial Russia with expansionist goals to be obtained well beyond it's current boarders, with him leading it. He is overjoyed.
The Russian populace is on a war footing and, for the most part, because of Putin's propaganda machine, citizens support him and his war in Ukraine. He characterizes this war as "NATOzism" where Russia is fighting for it survival against a US led NATO coalition set on destroying Russia in a similar way to how Hitler's Nazis planned to conquer Russia. There is constant reference in Russian media and talk shows to Ukraine's Azov Battalion who, undeniably, has ideological connections to Nazism and allegedly, but falsely claim committed genocide against Russian citizens in Ukraine. SImilarities between Russia's heroic, patriotic war v. Hitler's Germany - a war of attrition fought over many years - abound. Putin is more popular than ever within Russia either that or he is silently held in distain. Putin's security apparatus has made it way too dangerous to speak up.
I've argued this from the start. The outcome of this conflict has immense consequences not just for Ukraine but for the ideologies embodied in western liberal democracies, as flawed as they seem to be at times. A victory for Putin, even a negotiated settlement that accepts the status quo of his Ukrainian land grab, will show that brutal multipolar authoritarianism is ascending and western style liberal democracy and pax Americana is in decline. It will shift the global balance of power away from the US, Europe and towards multipolar powers, all of them creating mischief, heightening global tensions, where their national interests might be served. Those players will be China, Russia, Iran and NK in an alliance completely unfavorable to freedoms enjoyed in the west. This alliance has as it's intention paramount global influence at the least and imperial conquest and control at the most. Make no mistake. Allow Putin to achieve his goals in Ukraine and that is exactly where we will be.
How do we stop Putin? Worrisomely, only about 1/3 of the world's nations have condemned Russia's invasion. ONE THIRD. The rest either fully support his invasion or remain uncommitted in varying degrees to restrain Putin's aggression. Much of this has to do with Putin's carefully crafted raison d'etre for invading Ukraine a year ago which, at face, is entirely believable. He's successfully argued, at least in the minds of 2/3 of the world's nations, that NATO expansion and concurrently western ideologies was, and continues to be, an existential threat to the Russian Federation, it's existence and the Russian way of life. Putin goes on to explain that the US and Europe have used Ukraine, never a real state and always a part of Russia as a means of advancing the excesses of the west to entice those who embrace socialistic values and the the subordination of self to the state to become westernized themselves. Putin goes on to allege that he US and EU (NATO) advance western ideologies without describing the moral decay and inequalities so prevalent in America. He embellishes that argument with what used to be right out of the Soviet and Communist playbook - the decadence of western capitalism practiced in it's extremes instead of controlled by the state and the depravity of people who advance themselves under that economic system.
Putin responds only to power where faced with an unfavorable outcome he calculates the costs of continuing attempts to achieve his objectives in Ukraine to be too high. IMO, that's achieved with much more forcefulness on the part of the western powers in preventing further tactical gains of the Russian army on the ground, denying the Russian air forces air superiority and the use of those skies over Ukraine to attack Ukrainian infrastructure and making their continued occupation of the Ukrainian territories they presently occupy, including Crimea, untenable and unsustainable. Doable. Do it.
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