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Rporting on Chinese balloons is occupying the information space. There's plenty to report on in Ukraine.
I recently reported that the Russians had undertaken an offensive operation intended to break though Ukrainian positions, encircle Bakhmut and trap Ukrainian forces in a pincer type movement. The northern pincher needed to seize area around Vuhledar to the NW of Bakhmut. As I noted, that operation was a failure with heavy losses of tanks, infantry men and other equipment which was abandoned in a hasty retreat. Pro-Russian milbloggers were irate at another Russian army failure. The Russians have achieved some marginal success in advancing but not through and past Ukrainian defensive positions.
Pro-Ukrainian milbloggers believe Ukraine has invited a Russian offensive in any from or tactic to seize Bakhmut while inflicting maximum losses on the Russian army trying to advance, then withdrawing. The Vuhledar catastrophe suggests that is exactly what's happening. Military analysts are suggesting the Ukrainians, having delivered a costly blow to the Russians trying to take Bakhmut, will undertake their own offensive in southern Ukraine with the target being Melipitol. If that offensive succeeds, and there is good chance it will given how the Russian army has moved the majority of it's forces in Ukraine to the Donetsk and Luhansk front, a thrust toward Melipitol is only lightly defended by Russia.
Recapturing Melipitol has significant strategic benefits. It splits Russian forces into two parts, one in the Donbas and one in Crimea and it's approaches. It also severs critical supply lines for Russian operations in the Donbas, re-supplies coming from Crimea, that encompass the southern arc of Ukraine also known as a land bridge between Crimea and the Donbas. The NYT published an easy to read map giving viewers a big picture look at what both sides are trying to accomplish.
Ukraine offensive.jpg
I recently reported that the Russians had undertaken an offensive operation intended to break though Ukrainian positions, encircle Bakhmut and trap Ukrainian forces in a pincer type movement. The northern pincher needed to seize area around Vuhledar to the NW of Bakhmut. As I noted, that operation was a failure with heavy losses of tanks, infantry men and other equipment which was abandoned in a hasty retreat. Pro-Russian milbloggers were irate at another Russian army failure. The Russians have achieved some marginal success in advancing but not through and past Ukrainian defensive positions.
Pro-Ukrainian milbloggers believe Ukraine has invited a Russian offensive in any from or tactic to seize Bakhmut while inflicting maximum losses on the Russian army trying to advance, then withdrawing. The Vuhledar catastrophe suggests that is exactly what's happening. Military analysts are suggesting the Ukrainians, having delivered a costly blow to the Russians trying to take Bakhmut, will undertake their own offensive in southern Ukraine with the target being Melipitol. If that offensive succeeds, and there is good chance it will given how the Russian army has moved the majority of it's forces in Ukraine to the Donetsk and Luhansk front, a thrust toward Melipitol is only lightly defended by Russia.
Recapturing Melipitol has significant strategic benefits. It splits Russian forces into two parts, one in the Donbas and one in Crimea and it's approaches. It also severs critical supply lines for Russian operations in the Donbas, re-supplies coming from Crimea, that encompass the southern arc of Ukraine also known as a land bridge between Crimea and the Donbas. The NYT published an easy to read map giving viewers a big picture look at what both sides are trying to accomplish.
Ukraine offensive.jpg
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