...there is a joke in there somewhere...
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The MSM is reporting "increased Russian activity" in and around the forward edge of the battle area (FEBA). As most analysts are suggesting, an apparently new Russian offensive is underway. It is reportedly focused on a line from Savatove in the north to Kremenia to Bakhmut in the south. It consists of pouring thousands of newly mobilized soldiers into a forward line that is, at most, 100km. Rear areas are being supplied with ammunition and reserves to support some kind of extended, "decisive" offensive operation.
Analysts believe that two factors are at play for the increased Russian activity: (1) Putin's orders to Gerasimov to seize and control the regions of Luhansk and Donetsk by March 27th. (2) Getting this done before the newest western arms shipments reach the battle area. The UK ministry of defense - a usually balanced source - is saying the Russians cannot mount an offensive of the scale required to obtain Putin's stated objectives. That is because of the lack of coordination between forces in contact along the FEBA and poor supporting logistics. Noe of this is new and has characterized Russian army operations since the invasion started a year ago.
The offensive appears to be disorganized and hastily undertaken. Accordingly, casualties inflicted on Russian soldiers and equipment by Ukrainian defenders are high. There's been some graphic video posted in Twitter feeds I follow of successful drone attacks against small Russian troop concentrations, isolated and unprotected (stupidly out in the open) armor and artillery concentrations. Ukrainian military and intelligence sources - historically mum about what's going on - have talked about the number of Russians that just keep coming ..... and we kill them.
The other thing that is striking to me is the depiction of Ukrainian civilian/soldiers - these are former college professors, engineers, lawyers, average joe citizens that have joined local self defense forces in large numbers and standing fast against the onslaught of Russian soldiers. These men (and women) are highly motivated to defend Ukrainian territory from Russians attempting to occupy and control it. It appears they are also exceptionally well led by regular Ukrainian army personnel. In contrast, the Russians appear to be demoralized and in disarray. A video from a drone was posted of Wagner Group (mercenaries) dragging their wounded commander to a barn where outside, they beat him to death with shovels. I recognize the release of this kind of stuff is propaganda but it is pretty hard to dismiss the contrast in fighting spirit and capability between the aggressors and the defenders here.
In the final analysis, there is no way the Russian army is going to obtain Putin's detached from reality objectives in Ukraine. They cannot advance in any sustainable way achieving tactical gains over the Ukrainian defenders. This unpleasant reality for the Russian high command and Putin has been demonstrated over and over again. When they do incrementally advance, they cannot hold and control even rural settlements and villages, getting driven back by partisans, civil defense and regular army forces to defensive trenches they set out from.
Unfortunately, no one analysing the Ukrainian armed force's progress think they can drive the Russians out by inflicting significant battle field victories over dug in Russian forces who presently occupy and are defending Ukrainian land grabbed over the course of the last 7 years dating back to 2014. The bloody and destructive conflict is likely to drag on interminably. The wild card is western arms that are technologically far superior to that of the Russians meaning it takes less of it to gain strategic and tactical wins even in the face of what the Russians have more of - soldiers.Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. But the shine on the NC Trophy is embarrassingly wearing off. It's M B-Ball ..... or hockey or volley ball or name your college sport favorite time ...... until next year.
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I feel like I am watching the destruction of our democracy while my neighbors and friends cheer it on
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Originally posted by CGVT View Post
Harry Whittington, who was shot by Dick Cheney during a 2006 hunting trip, dies : NPR
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