Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[iam416]

Inflationary effects have lasted longer than SOME people expected. But saying The Chairman fucked up early on isn't hindsight is 20/20. Plenty of people got that right. And plenty of people saw it lasting way longer than it should have.

It wasn't some sort of unsolveable mysterious puzzle.

[Dr. Strangelove]

You don't see a ton written about it compared to the covid money but I think there's now a consensus view that the Fed dumped money into the economy for far too long between 2020 and early 2022. They should have stopped buying bonds a lot earlier than they did. They ended up buying over $6 Trillion in bonds/mortgages.

[THE_WIZARD_]

The deficit is now over $30 Trillion fucking dollars. The Chairman has tried to print his way out of recession. Ya think that might just be the root cause here?

Nope. Tight labor market. Heh.

[iam416]

You don't see a ton written about it compared to the covid money but I think there's now a consensus view that the Fed dumped money into the economy for far too long between 2020 and early 2022. They should have stopped buying bonds a lot earlier than they did. They ended up buying over $6 Trillion in bonds/mortgages.

Setting aside "consensus" -- this at least makes intuitive sense. I'm just some rube from Mahoning County, but my basic understanding of inflation is that injecting a shit-ton of money into the economy will probably cause it. I mean, that's it.

Now, if you want to point to The Chairman's efforts to perpetually extend unemployment benefits as creating a tight labor market or whatever as a cause -- an erroneous cause, I guess -- then ok.

But I'll always start with the "fuckton of money" theory.

[froot loops]

The deficit is now over $30 Trillion fucking dollars. The Chairman has tried to print his way out of recession. Ya think that might just be the root cause here?

Nope. Tight labor market. Heh.

Yes Biden was president in 2020.

[lineygoblue]

Didn't The Fed raise interest rates this week? And, that was an effort to 'control inflation'?

Maybe Joe wasn't in the loop on that one.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Is Joe ever in the loop?

[Dr. Strangelove]

Setting aside "consensus" -- this at least makes intuitive sense. I'm just some rube from Mahoning County, but my basic understanding of inflation is that injecting a shit-ton of money into the economy will probably cause it. I mean, that's it.

Now, if you want to point to The Chairman's efforts to perpetually extend unemployment benefits as creating a tight labor market or whatever as a cause -- an erroneous cause, I guess -- then ok.

But I'll always start with the "fuckton of money" theory.

To be clear, I don't want to suggest that the covid money didn't cause inflation, just that at the same time that was happening the Fed was injecting an equally huge sum of money into financial markets.

The three covid bills (Trump's two and then Biden's) totaled about $5 trillion. The Fed's bond-buying program was $6 trillion over two years.

[lineygoblue]

Is Joe ever in the loop?

Well, no of course. But appearances are everything. When he's not in his basement.

[iam416]

I still LMAO at "no one saw this coming" shit. Good lord.

The reality is this -- The Chairman still had some ambitious political goals in the summer of 2021 and, as with all Prog goals, they involved spending a fuckton of money. He couldn't ackowledge inflation because that would get in the way of his agenda. So he pooh-poohed and belittled anyone who dare disagree with his assessment ("no serious economist" disagrees with me). And he proceeded.

And, look, that's the way politics goes. If you can get away with it, then great. But if the chickens come to roost then you're stuck.

[iam416]

To be clear, I don't want to suggest that the covid money didn't cause inflation, just that at the same time that was happening the Fed was injecting an equally huge sum of money into financial markets.

The three covid bills (Trump's two and then Biden's) totaled about $5 trillion. The Fed's bond-buying program was $6 trillion over two years.

Right. And each new covid bill was progressively unneeded. The first -- yeah, we probably needed that. The second, debatable. The third -- no. A total mistake.

In terms of the effect, it's fair to view them in the aggregate (along w/ bond-buying). In fact, you have to. But, in terms of decision-making, each act was dealing with different available information. The continued bond-buying into 2022 is the probably the silliest based on available information. The third stimulus is next silliest. And so on.

[Dr. Strangelove]

I haven't read a ton about it, but the few commentators I've seen seem to think the Fed should have stopped the bond-buying around the end of summer 2021 or even earlier. It lasted through March or April 2022 (forget which off the top of my head). And Biden's influence on that decision can't be ignored since Powell's status to be renominated as Fed Chair was in limbo for much of the Fall of 2021. I don't wanna say that he made his choice entirely based on keeping his job BUT....hard to say that wasn't a factor.

[iam416]

Well, anyway, it didn't hurt The Chairman too much in the long run. And whatever macro effects high interest rates will have, those will dissipate by 2024. So, you know, another 4 years of The Chairman and Kamala awaits. JFC.

[Dr. Strangelove]

TO 2024 AND BEYOND!!!

[THE_WIZARD_]

I just bought a home in Lincoln as THE_WIZARD_ is moving east soon...gonna live near the little wizzies... and grand wizzies... decided to pay cash for the house...fucking interest rates are approaching 7% now for fucking home loans. Paid off a car loan I did about 6 months ago that was 5.5%...now those are much higher. My only question is where to put the rest of my money...I have quite a bit in a standard IRA that has taken a fucking beating...but the rest of the restaurant sale money I just stuck in a MM for now. I'm thinking of calling the Pelosi's for advice though...

Thanks Joe.