Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Dr. Strangelove]

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[Dr. Strangelove]

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[froot loops]

Boom goes the dynamite is an underrated catchphrase.

[Dr. Strangelove]

One theory I haven't seen much that I'll throw out there

Inflation hits the poor and working class a lot harder than the professional classes and upper middle class. The former are irregular voters while the latter vote almost every time. And lately, the Dems have the edge with the latter groups. Could be why, among people who actually voted and not just those who talked to a pollster, inflation was less of a vote decider than we thought going in. And if you DID think inflation was a major issue, did your Republican candidate offer a solution to the problem? Or did they mainly discuss culture war bullshit? The head of the Michigan Republicans complained that Tudor Dixon spent a lot more time reminding people of her views on abortion and tranny athletes and not so much time on the economy.

[CGVT]

One theory I haven't seen much that I'll throw out there

Inflation hits the poor and working class a lot harder than the professional classes and upper middle class. The former are irregular voters while the latter vote almost every time. And lately, the Dems have the edge with the latter groups. Could be why, among people who actually voted and not just those who talked to a pollster, inflation was less of a vote decider than we thought going in. And if you DID think inflation was a major issue, did your Republican candidate offer a solution to the problem? Or did they mainly discuss culture war bullshit? The head of the Michigan Republicans complained that Tudor Dixon spent a lot more time reminding people of her views on abortion and tranny athletes and not so much time on the economy.

Kemp stayed on message in Georgia and it paid off. He turned every question to the economy and what he has done to fight it and what he plans to do. He touted his record and stayed away from the other issues.
He avoided Trump and distanced himself from Walker.
His campaign ads were mostly positive "This what I bring to the table" type adds the PAC brought in some attack ads linking Abrahms to California, out of state money, and Pelosi and Biden.
He ran a very good campaign.

BTW, nearly every down ballot position in GA went to a Republican. Georgia is still a deeply red state.

I am curious to see if the Dems or the Repubs stay home in bigger numbers in the runoff now that it doesn't matter in the Senate. I suspect the voters that were holding their noses and voting for Walker will be less inclined to vote for him now, but I really don't know how it will shake out

[iam416]

I don't think there's a whole lot of mystery to any of this. The Rosetta Stone to this election is plainly written in English on a 2nd grade level so that even the likes of The Wizard can read.

The real question will be whether either party takes anything from it. I'm certain The Party will not. They will see losing the House and winning the Senate as a massive endorsement of all things The Party. The only question, then, is whether DJT is jettisoned or not. And, at this point, it's at least a question. I rate it as less likely than not, but it's definitely in play.

[Dr. Strangelove]

The R's cannot jettison Trump without him almost certainly sabotaging the 2024 Presidential race. Now they can and should take back the Senate as Manchin, Sherrod Brown, and maybe Tester will be all major underdogs.

[Dr. Strangelove]

I'm obviously not going to watch it but Russia's Wagner mercenary group released an ISIS-style execution video of them killing a deserter by smashing his head with a sledge hammer.

The guy was one of their prison recruits who immediately deserted and surrendered to the Ukrainians once he got in-country. Then got exchanged in a prisoners swap and well...

[Dr. Strangelove]

[Jeff Buchanan]

A few days ago, ISW reported that Wagner units had implemented "processes" to identify and punish deserters - apparently a lot of them comprised of forced conscripts and prisoners. The Wagner Group heavily recruited (or forced conscripted) prisoners and Ukrainians in occupied territories of the DNR. It is in the Donetsk Oblast where the Wager group is operating and having some tactical military success although it is of limited strategic value other than political and focused on advancing the public image of Yevgeny Prigozhin - Wagner Group titular head.

Obviously, the Russian army's retreat from Kherson city/west bank of the Dnipro and the Ukrainian army's quick liberation and clearing of surrounding settlements is making the news. What isn't in the MSN is the political situation inside the Kremlin. The details, if accurate, are stunning. There are ever increasing fractures emerging from various political elements inside Russia.

Two days ago, when the Russian MOD announced it had completed an orderly withdrawal from the city of Keherson and to the left bank of the Dnipro milbloggers and Russian politicians praised the move. Not anymore. Attacks inside Russia on the withdrawal abound. Extreme nationalist, Alexander Dugin, Putin's principal ideologue before the invasion, blasted Putin directly yesterday. That is unprecedented. I'm just going to link you to the ISW report on this. It is interesting to say the least. The implication is that Putin is falling out of favor with some outspoken Russian principals. It isn't certain that these principals can actually facilitate Putin's ouster but they are sowing seeds of discontent that could influence others that could oust him.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-12

[Cody_Russell]

One theory I haven't seen much that I'll throw out there

Inflation hits the poor and working class a lot harder than the professional classes and upper middle class. The former are irregular voters while the latter vote almost every time. And lately, the Dems have the edge with the latter groups. Could be why, among people who actually voted and not just those who talked to a pollster, inflation was less of a vote decider than we thought going in. And if you DID think inflation was a major issue, did your Republican candidate offer a solution to the problem? Or did they mainly discuss culture war bullshit? The head of the Michigan Republicans complained that Tudor Dixon spent a lot more time reminding people of her views on abortion and tranny athletes and not so much time on the economy.

Perhaps some of this. I think voting by mail in key swing states led to more Ds votes too. Add in the big influence of Gen Z in this midterm election and extreme Rs candidates.

Huge win for Ds considering expectations last week. I’m not sure if having Senate control will matter much unless we see a Supreme Court Justice step down in the next 2 years.

Rs have an identity crisis and need to evaluate everything in the near future. Their party should feel embarrassed with the results this year. Excluding Florida.

[iam416]

The R's cannot jettison Trump without him almost certainly sabotaging the 2024 Presidential race. Now they can and should take back the Senate as Manchin, Sherrod Brown, and maybe Tester will be all major underdogs.

Short-term pain. Long-term gain.

[Dr. Strangelove]

R's did well in Florida, Georgia, and surprisingly New York. That's in part due to the Democratic gerrymander getting tossed. I guess you could say Ohio too but Dems did go from having 4 of 16 House seats to 5 of 15. Thanks to fairer maps that'll probably be eliminated by 2024.

I'll have to check up on the numbers in Texas but from what I saw a few days ago, Texas is not really getting redder in the way Florida has. Republicans haven't stormed back in the big city burbs. But rural Texas still can outvote the Big 4 metro areas. For now.

[iam416]

Well, the Governor's race wasn't a result of gerrymandering. And the real point is that Zeldin -- a competent R candidate -- probably carried an R or two across the line in House races.

And Ohio was a wipeout where the Rs ran even passably decent canddiates.

Again, the message from the election is particularly hard to figure out.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Zeldin was a smart choice because he has strong support on Long Island. NY Republicans usually choose some stale upstate loser with little connection to the NY metro