Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[iam416]

It does look that way.

It's never NOT looked that way. At least to me. It's way more wishcasting than anything real. I could be proven wrong on this. But, I think two things are correct about the polling in this race -- (a) Hassan was never gonna win by 10+ -- that was total nonsense and (b) she was never gonna lose. If you had asked me in April, I'd have said Hassan wins by 1-3 points. It's NH.

[Hannibal]

We'll it's not a super long shot. Predictit has it about about a 1/3 chance for Bolduc.

[iam416]

No, but it was never going to be a super long shot. It's not like the NY Gov or Washington Senate nonsense -- which is total nonsense. I mean, 1-3 points is close. If things really, really break well for the Rs then it's possible. But I'd bet on Hassan at those odds. I think it's more like 80/20 or better.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Gov Sununu MUST deploy the NH National Guard to the border with Massachusetts and block the hundreds of buses arriving Election Day filled to the brim with whiskey-sodden Irish street toughs from Southie.

If he fails to do this he is a NEVER TRUMPER and is against AMERICA FIRST as much as Gov DeSanctimonious!

[Dr. Strangelove]

Ralston's final prediction for Nevada is Dems barely hold the Senate seat and lose the Governor's race in a squeaker.

Dems have a smaller lead going into Election Day in Clark County than they did in 2018.

[DaGeezer]

from today's WSJ


Queue The ever-expanding administrative state has become a fourth branch of government. Unelected, unaccountable and tenure-protected bureaucrats enact most rules governing Americans’ lives—thousands of new ones every year.

Seeking to aid this swelling administrative state, Congress has created in-house courts, which have taken over most regulatory enforcement cases from the judiciary. These administrative-law judges are employed by the same agency that brings the prosecutions. Unsurprisingly, the agency wins the vast majority of cases—90% at the Securities and Exchange Commission and 100% at the Federal Trade Commission. Worse, these administrative adjudications trap citizens in costly yearslong proceedings.

Michelle Cochran, a Texas certified public accountant, has been ensnared in costly and repeated SEC adjudications for more than six years. Hers is one of two cases, SEC v. Cochran and Axon v. FTC, that the Supreme Court will hear Monday. The question in both cases is whether Americans hauled before agency ALJs can challenge the ALJ’s unconstitutional removal protections in federal district courts before such unconstitutional proceedings take place.

As it stands, these ALJs can’t be removed by any one person and are structurally beholden to the agency that employs them. Put another way, the constitutional system’s separation of powers made it imperative that the judicial power be separated from the executive. These ALJs are accountable to no one—not the president, not the judiciary (which they purport to replace) and least of all the electorate.

---

Ms. Cochran worked for a difficult boss who disregarded accounting rules and was the real subject of SEC concern. Ms. Cochran had quit her job in 2013 for those reasons. Nonetheless, the SEC included her as an ancillary target of its 2016 charges though no losses or damages were connected to her work.

Blindsided by these charges dating back some six years, and unable to find a lawyer willing to represent her in a forum where the SEC almost always wins, Ms. Cochran defended the action without an attorney before an administrative-law judge who publicly boasted that he had never ruled against the agency. In 2017 the ALJ hit her with a $22,500 fine and a draconian five-year professional suspension.

In 2018, before her decision was final, the Supreme Court ruled in Lucia v. SEC that the SEC’s administrative-law judges hadn’t been constitutionally appointed. That vacated the decision against Ms. Cochran. She was forced to defend herself all over again before a new ALJ. That eight years had passed since the events in dispute hamstrung her ability to mount a defense.

The new SEC judge assigned to her case was still at least doubly insulated from removal by the president—or any one person—which both the Supreme Court held in Free Enterprise Fund v. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (2010), and as the government argued in Lucia was unconstitutional. The high court also unanimously held in Free Enterprise Fund that federal courts have jurisdiction to decide such structural constitutional claims. So Ms. Cochran, determined to retain her hard-won right to practice as a CPA, must be allowed to sue in federal court to vindicate her right to be tried only once—and in a constitutional tribunal.

Supported by flawed precedents in five U.S. circuit courts of appeals, the SEC was able to have her case dismissed. The federal district judge who ordered dismissal recognized the injustice: “The court is deeply concerned with the fact that plaintiff already has been subjected to extensive proceedings before an ALJ who was not constitutionally appointed. . . . She should not have been put to the stress of the first proceedings, and, if she is correct in her contentions, she again will be put to further proceedings, undoubtedly at considerable expense and stress, before another unconstitutionally appointed administrative law judge.” Ms. Cochran faced another ALJ decision that would eventually be reviewed and vacated—setting her up for a third trial.

This madness isn’t confined to the SEC. Axon Enterprise, Inc., an Arizona maker of police body cameras, was in a similar bind. The FTC sought to block its acquisition of a small competitor on antitrust grounds without any showing of an anticompetitive effect. Axon was willing to divest the company but balked when the FTC demanded that Axon surrender its intellectual property to the now-competitor. Rather than submit to a yearslong administrative trial the FTC was sure to win, Axon sued in district court so that its case might be heard before a constitutional adjudicator. Axon, like Ms. Cochran, was denied relief and also lost on appeal over a powerful dissent.

Ms. Cochran persuaded a majority of the judges on the entire Fifth Circuit that this process makes no sense. Her victory created the circuit split that brought Ms. Cochran and Axon to the Supreme Court.

These challenges have the potential to turn around decades of accretion of judicial power in administrative agencies. Thomas Jefferson wrote that “the most sacred of the duties of a government” is “to do equal and impartial justice to all of its citizens.” An agency that serves as lawmaker, prosecutor, judge and court of appeal makes a mockery of Jefferson’s aspiration.

Ms. Little is senior litigation counsel at the New Civil Liberties Alliance, which represents Michelle Cochran.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Rumors going round all morning that Trump may actually announce tonight at JD Vance's rally

[Cody_Russell]

Interesting timing there… Not sure if that’s a good or bad idea for Trump / Rs when it comes to the midterms TOMORROW.

Senate.
FiveThirtyEight now has Rs as the slight favorite at 56-44 odds. Quite the turnaround from Ds being a 71-29 odds favorite two months ago.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

I have Ds winning Pennsylvania and Rs winning Nevada. As noted a few weeks ago, Georgia obviously goes to a runoff.
There will be one random upset between Arizona, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Ohio, Colorado, and Washington IMO. Can’t say for sure, but upsets do happen.
The polling has been weird… specifically for Georgia Walker vs Warnock. Interested to see the final results and compare it to the poll numbers.

House.
Rs win the House. Nothing to add.

[Hannibal]

Trump’s wasting his time in places like Florida and Ohio when he should be trying to increase turnout in AZ, NV, or NH.

[iam416]

The underlying assumption to the statement is that DJT gives a flying fuck about the R Party, beating the Ds or anything in this universe other DJT. DJT will hold rallies where DJT wants to hold rallies. That is all.

JFC, he's going to ultimately empower the Progs. JFC.

[Mike]

Yep. He’s a fucking cancer.

[crashcourse]

he already empowered the progs by losing in 2020

now they are going to return the favor starting tommorrow

[Hannibal]

The underlying assumption to the statement is that DJT gives a flying fuck about the R Party, beating the Ds or anything in this universe other DJT. DJT will hold rallies where DJT wants to hold rallies. That is all..

True, but at some point, the Rs interests and his interests are going to have to align if he wants to win the nomination. IMHO his huge lead over DeSantis is a mirage.

There has yet to be a reckoning for Trump's failed presidency that has originated on the Right.

[iam416]

Yep. He’s a fucking cancer.

In honor of Jon, America's SHITSTAIN

[iam416]

True, but at some point, the Rs interests and his interests are going to have to align if he wants to win the nomination. IMHO his huge lead over DeSantis is a mirage.

There has yet to be a reckoning for Trump's failed presidency that has originated on the Right.

I'm not entirely sure. I want to believe DeSantis or, well, anyone....has a chance. But, I'm not sure that his relentlessly loyal plurality cares if his interests align with the party interests.