Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[iam416]

At this point, I'm thining it'll be a House wipeout -- and by that, I mean anything at 240 or more. In the Senate, I still think it's 50 or 51. I just think Fetterman hangs on and I think Warnock-Walker goes to a run-off that, I mean, who the fuck knows? I don't seriously think Hassan is going to lose. I don't seriously think Kelly is going to lose. I do think Laxalt wins. Oh, and yeah, Vance is going to win.

In terms of competence, Fetterman-Walker would be single worst outcome -- by far. But, then again, if you only measure competence by pulling the lever for your side, then Fetterman-Walker will both be remarkably competent for their respective parties. And, there's a lot to that approach.

[Hannibal]

if you only measure competence by pulling the lever for your side, then Fetterman-Walker will both be remarkably competent for their respective parties.

Which is why they are both running and why very few people are going to cross party lines to vote for the other guy. I think that 10 years ago, you would have seen the "R" base abandon walker out of "muh Conservative principles". Thankfully, it looks like that era is coming to an end.

[iam416]

It's all national. Well, not "all" -- but the shift from local to national is pronounced.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Yeah there's not many exceptions any more in major states. You can still win on character and likeability in a place like Alaska because it's so far removed from the rest of America that it's sort of nationalization-proof.

Governor races are an exception too as they can be seen by voters as a way to balance against a legislature dominated by one party. New York, if not this year, will have Republican Governor soon. Oklahoma and Kansas may elect Democrats.

[klondike]

Most Americans are tired of these socialists. Would you rather an incompetent win or a hard core socialist who is light on crime win. Tough choice but I'm siding with my pocket book and an weapon in case someone tries to take it.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Axios claims Trump will announce he's running Nov 14 (a Monday)

Trump team eyes Nov. 14 announcement for 2024 presidential run (axios.com)

[iam416]

Yeah there's not many exceptions any more in major states. You can still win on character and likeability in a place like Alaska because it's so far removed from the rest of America that it's sort of nationalization-proof.

Governor races are an exception too as they can be seen by voters as a way to balance against a legislature dominated by one party. New York, if not this year, will have Republican Governor soon. Oklahoma and Kansas may elect Democrats.

Yeah, I should have specified that Federal elections are primarily national now.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Twitter employees sue Twitter and Musk over violating the WARN Act (thousands of them expected to be laid off today). Seems like a pretty open and shut case though I doubt Musk is bothered much by the spare change fines he'll have to pay.

Twitter sued by employees after mass layoffs begin (cnbc.com)

[lineygoblue]

Axios claims Trump will announce he's running Nov 14 (a Monday)

Trump team eyes Nov. 14 announcement for 2024 presidential run (axios.com)

Yeah, he will announce that he's running again, and I wish he wouldn't. I'd much rather be able to vote for DeSantis, because I think he can easily beat any Dem that The Party sends up against him. Trump is much too polarizing, and I'm concerned that even Kamala would beat him in a H to H 2024 matchup. DeSantis would bury her.

Michiganders probably won't even get a chance to vote for DeSantis in the primary. IMO, Trump will likely oust him before primary day. That won't be good for anybody. In fact, I'm not even sure that DeSantis will risk running against Trump in the primaries.

[Hannibal]

Yeah, he will announce that he's running again, and I wish he wouldn't. I'd much rather be able to vote for DeSantis, because I think he can easily beat any Dem that The Party sends up against him. Trump is much too polarizing, and I'm concerned that even Kamala would beat him in a H to H 2024 matchup. DeSantis would bury her.

Michiganders probably won't even get a chance to vote for DeSantis in the primary. IMO, Trump will likely oust him before primary day. That won't be good for anybody. In fact, I'm not even sure that DeSantis will risk running against Trump in the primaries.

Don't sell Ron short. He's a very smart guy and he will approach a contest with Trump in a way that nobody ever has. He can go on stage and credibly say that he has done more for the MAGA agenda as the Florida governor than Trump did in four years as President. He's going to win over huge amounts of pepole who want "Trumpism without Trump'. And that's exactly what he's doing to do. Trump has not faced that before. He has faced off against Liberals, RINOS, and aloof idealogues like Ted Cruz. I don't know if it will be enough, because Trump does have that massive cult of personality thing going for him. But DeSantis has more than a puncher's chance. I'm tellin' y'all, he can win. I'm not predicting it but all bets are off.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Yeah, I should have specified that Federal elections are primarily national now.

If I had a lot of time I could probably think of a Senate candidate who defied national trends AND won in a state dominated by the opposite party but I'm struggling to think of a single one off the top of my head. Someone like Sherrod Brown can win Ohio but it has to be in a good environment for Dems like 2018. If Ryan somehow wins it'd be a once in a lifetime sort of thing.

[Hannibal]

Twitter employees sue Twitter and Musk over violating the WARN Act (thousands of them expected to be laid off today). Seems like a pretty open and shut case though I doubt Musk is bothered much by the spare change fines he'll have to pay.

Twitter sued by employees after mass layoffs begin (cnbc.com)

A shame, but not unexpected.

As I reflect on 2016 and beyond, Donald's only true accomplishment was getting elected. It was no small accomplishment and Repubilcans should be incredibly grateful for it. But it was a one time thing and it's time to move on to "MAGA without Trump". Making him the Chief Executive for the country again would set the movement back badly.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Don't sell Ron short. He's a very smart guy and he will approach a contest with Trump in a way that nobody ever has. He can go on stage and credibly say that he has done more for the MAGA agenda as the Florida governor than Trump did in four years as President. Trump has not faced that before. He has faced off against Liberals and aloof idealogues like Ted Cruz.

I think you are wishcasting qualities onto DeSantis he doesn't have IMO. I don't think he does terribly well when challenged. He bristles. Trump rolls with attacks better. JMO. He gives virtually no interviews to hostile media (Trump does all the time). If he did he'd get more practiced at it.

I read a quick rumor a week ago that he supposedly told donors privately he won't run if Trump does. Who knows

The smartest thing to do is to wait as long as possible in 2023 to see if Trump implodes. It's very difficult at this point for me to see Trump endorsing him.

[Dr. Strangelove]

On the other side I'm not sure Biden could even beat Trump again in 2024. But he's the only candidate I give him a greater than 1% chance against. Once the bloodbath settles the powers that be will talk him out of running. I hope. Or maybe he's never seriously intended to run for reelection. But he needs to make the decision first half of 2023 rather than bow out in March of 2024 a la LBJ.

[Tom W]

As I reflect on 2016 and beyond, Donald's only true accomplishment was getting elected. It was no small accomplishment and Repubilcans should be incredibly grateful for it. But it was a one time thing and it's time to move on to "MAGA without Trump". Making him the Chief Executive for the country again would set the movement back badly.

100% Agree. I still think that Trump, the person, isn't nearly as important as the ideals that he grabbed hold of and ran with. "Middle America" - in a geographic and economic sense- was pissed off and it's only gotten worse since 2020. But, the only reason that the midterms have a chance to NOT be a red tsunami is that Trump, the person, hasn't gone away and the R's have provided a set of whack job candidates that he's annointed.