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Originally posted by Dr. Strangelove
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There have been several military analyst reports in the last month indicating the Ukrainians did not want to enter the city in force and precipitate an urban engagement with the Russians. Those are hard and result in the destruction of a lot of structures from artillery fires in support of advancing Ukrainian forces or withdrawing Russian forces. The Ukrainians would prefer to have Russian forces withdraw from the city. The other important message that keeps coming across is that Ukraine has had success with interdiction warfare targeting Russian GLOCs and Troop concentrations for about 2 months now. If those interdiction missions are as effective as they are being purported to be that would indicate Russian commanders can't get the supplies they need to defend the positions they took during a quick thrust into Kherson in February and March and have successfully defended and held since then.
Accordingly, they've decided to make an orderly withdrawal, unlike the chaotic rout of Russian forces in Kharkiv last month. It's pretty clear a planned withdrawal of administrative staff and then Russian military officers started nearly a month ago. What's left to defend Kherson city would then be conscripts and that is what reports are saying have moved into civilian buildings to defend advances with urban style warfare from there.
My take from putting ISW sources and British MOD analysis together is that (1) there are still a lot of Russian soldiers left in Kherson Oblast. I've seen estimates numbering in the 30 and 40 thousands. (2) These forces are concentrated along GLOCs that stem from the east (Melipitol and Donetsk) to the S (via E58) and from the S (Crimea) to the E (via E97) . The purpose is to defend those critical GLOCs through the next 6 months to support Russian plans to regenerate combat capability and mount a new offensive in April 2023. Obviously the Ukrainians would like to keep dinking and dunking those GLOCs to disrupt Russian plans for the spring.
The Dnipro river divides the Kherson Oblast roughly in half. The western or right bank contains Kherson city proper and multiple suburbs, some to the north of Kherson city already liberated by Ukrainian forces. The defensive fortifications the Russian have been building for about 3w now are on the eastern or left bank of the Dnipro. A hydroelectric dam that controls the flow of water southward into Kherson and then beyond that to Crimea sits near the city of Nova Kakhovka. The Russian hold this city and this area including access to the dam. It has been an area of Ukrainian partisan and military special forces operations. I question how much control the Russians actually have of Nova Kakhovka and the dam itself. Starting a week ago, the Russian alleged that the Ukrainians planned to blow up the dam and those allegations were countered by the Ukrainians alleging it was the Russian who wanted to blow it to flood areas downstream. That hasn't happened. I mention this city, the dam and hydroelectric facility there along with the city of Kherson itself because of the strategic importance of this key terrain to both sides. Whoever controls it controls the entire Kherson oblast and has the capacity to either properly defend or put pressure on Crimea. I've clipped a map for your orientation if you're interested:
On the map Kherson city is on the left, Melipitol on the right. Crimea at the bottom of the frame. The Dnipro River runs R to L. The City of Nova Kakhovka and the dam is in the center of the frame.
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