Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[THE_WIZARD_]

I think it's fair to say that we all dread that part of the day where The Wizard finally hauls his morbid ass out of bed and carpet bombs all threads with his inane mix of idiocy and depravity. At least he's curt. Because we're probably 10 minutes or so away from a Buchanan update on Ukraine that we could, with maximal effort, all get through by Veterans Day.

STFU

[iam416]

Please visit AA with a hammer. Until that task is complete, kindly STFU and KYR.

[THE_WIZARD_]

AA deserves so much more than a hammer...

[Jeff Buchanan]

Because we're probably 10 minutes or so away from a Buchanan update on Ukraine that we could, with maximal effort, all get through by Veterans Day.

Sorry I'm late.

Ukraine:

• Russia rejoined the grain deal after grain ships said, fuck you, we're sailing. There was probably some back room dealing going on, suggesting that there are negotiations between key parties in this mash-up that are going on in secret.
• The Russian army is actually withdrawing military equipment and personnel from Kherson and the west bank of the Dnipro - except some untrained 18-20 yo new recruits with rusty rifles and no shoes. This after two weeks of, " they're withdrawing, they're not, they're withdrawing......." In military terms, the Russian army is executing delaying actions. I don't expect Kherson to fall any time soon. It's going to get ugly if street fighting takes place inside the city of Kherson.
• ISW has started charting Ukrainian partisan attacks - there are hundreds of them across Ukraine - against occupying Russian military and administrative personnel and equipment. Apparently it's gotten bad enough that these activities are starting to have a military and political impact on Russian occupiers. This has prompted Russian forces to take troops off the front lines to secure rear areas. It points to the cluster-fuck that has become an inability of the Russians to hold and control the territory they have seized since February. Was never going to be as easy as Putin thought it would be. Instead of backing off, Putin has doubled down - a troubling circumstance.
• Russia continues to drill Ukrainian power, water and sewer infrastructure with stand-off weapons, in a strategic bombing campaign, it's intent to lessen Ukrainian will to fight. The stand-off weapons, probably also cruise missiles from Iranian and NK stocks previously supplied by Russia - are proving to be pretty devastating unless you take into account Ukrainian claims they shoot most of them down and restore services in 24-48h. Dunno, man.
• NK is supplying Russia with artillery shells. Iran is sending more and more drones - disassembled, assembled in Russia, painted with Russian colors, fooling no one wrt where they are coming from. The axis powers are subverting western sanctions on military equipment to Russia. Not unexpected. It's having an impact not a positive one for Ukrainian and western interests.
• No new news on the seaborn drone attack on the Frigate Admiral Markarov - a little surprising but my take is that the west is getting antsy that the war is escalating not in a good way. If it was sunk or badly damaged, that's not being hailed by western governments. More on why that's happening later ......

[THE_WIZARD_]

you had us at "Sorry"

[THE_WIZARD_]

Get ready tonite for....no not Game 4...BIDEN ULTRA MEGA MAGA THREAT TO DEMOCRACY JANUARY 6TH TRUMP INSURRECTIONIST BASTAGES speech...Part Deaux...

[THE_WIZARD_]

How Biden sees himself:

[THE_WIZARD_]

How America sees Biden:

[Dr. Strangelove]

This time with strobe lighting

[THE_WIZARD_]

shaddup

[Jeff Buchanan]

There's a paywalled opinion piece in the NYTs today authored by Charles A. Kupchan, a professor of international affairs at Georgetown University and senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. The gist of the article is that it's time to get Putin and Zelenski to the bargaining table. I'm actually thinking the same thing so, the essay resonates with me. Here's what the essayist argues:

As I mentioned above, there are signs that the west is "getting antsy" over the escalating trends going on as Putin continues to wage war in Ukraine, e.g., Ukraine targets and sinks Moskva, Dugina is assassinated in Moscow with the Ukrainian GUR suspected of being behind it. Kersh bridge blows up. In retaliation, Putin sends waves of cruise missiles and drones targeting critical Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. Ukraine attacks the Black Sea Fleet's command ship, Admiral Markarov (replaced Moskva) and probably sinks it. Putin retaliates by sending 2x more cruise missiles and drones, etc. etc. Escalation.

While western strategic interests in stopping the illegal expansion of Russian territory into the sovereign state of Ukraine by military force were, IMO, valid 9 months ago when all of this started, other strategic interests may now be overcoming them. The risk of escalation to WWIII is real and so is the potentially dangerous rise of global illiberal populism that could challenge the existence of western democracies. Clearly, this movement is being nourished by out of control inflation, food and energy shortages, these trending undercurrents, all being flamed by Putin's' war in Ukraine. All of these dangers could be subdued by achieving a negotiated settlement between Ukraine and Russia.

If this sounds like giving in to Putin's blackmailing, which I oppose, it's not. That is because Russia has already sustained significant economic costs that will linger and worsen. Its prestige on the global stage has turned to shit. As reflected in a near 100% rejection among the UN General Assembly members of Putin's aggression in Ukraine, he does not have many supportive nations, NK and Iran the exceptions with India and China fence sitting. By my count, that's 144 of 148 nations condemning Putin's actions in Ukraine. Then, going forward, he's got to deal with the repercussions of the brutality of his aggression in Ukraine which, for some specific documented instances, amount to war crimes. Even though Russia doesn't recognize courts dealing with these, pursuit of charges against Russian military war criminals will be excruciatingly harmful.

Commensurate with the prolonged conflict, the risk of military escalation, including a nuclear exchange, are growing. It does not seem prudent to sit on the sidelines, continue arming the Ukrainian side and let the agonizing human and economic toll of this war continue without trying to guide the two sides to a settlement. I could list those costs but they are being constantly reported by the western press, not so much in Russia or in the public domain of it's 4 other supporters or allies. Putin and Zelenski appear to be locked into achieving outcomes that are unachievable.

The starting point would be some kind of cease fire agreement. A basis for that? Ukraine comes to realize it can't join NATO and states as a condition of negotiations, it will not pursue NATO membership. Zelenski could add, his government will no longer pursue charges of war crimes against Russian military personnel (There has been one conviction of a Russian soldier on a the charge of murder. Murder charges could be pursued). Become a member of the EU? Fine. Join NATO? No way and I get Putin's position that NATO on his doorstep is an existential threat to Russia's existence. Zelenski also has to accept Putin is not going to suddenly withdraw all his forces from presently occupied Ukrainian territory. He has to make territorial concessions to get things started. Next steps: Russian forces back to the pre-February 28th boarders? Yes. Declarations by Putin that withdraws the annexation of the 4 Ukrainian Oblasts he named last month? Yes. WIthdrawal of the Russian Duma's declaration that the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts are sovereign territories separate from Ukraine? Yes.

No way to either, you say. Well, Putin knows the reality, although he won't admit this publically, that he can't defend or control them now. He's thinking he might be able to restart an offensive in April, 2023. I can't find a military analyst that thinks that is possible. He has to know, as he's no idiot, that he's out of Schlitz wrt to sending more Russian forces into Ukraine to achieve objectives he's described publically. It is not possible for his military, reserves (Rosgavardia) or regular, to subdue resistance from Ukrainian partisans and from the Ukrainian army for the foreseeable future. Trying to do that will most assuredly become a pain in the ass and more likely a failure for Putin. Both may potentially threaten his hold on power.

The shit-storm Putin has created for Russia by invading a country that doesn't want Russia there in the first place and is led by a government he has tried to overthrow that is committed to actually defeating Russia is real despite the alternate reality Putin appears to be living in. Zelenski is committed to forcing a surrender on his terms. Those two positions together creates a circumstance within which there is no other likely outcome than years of conflict and all the downsides of that for both sides. Not the least of those downsides being the continued percolation of risks involving a direct conflict between NATO and Russia with the concurrent escalation towards WWIII and/or a nuclear exchange.

Those are the stark strategic realities that are now becoming evident after 9 months of brutally inhumane, exhausting and costly modern, highly lethal conflict. These are the strategic realities that now trump any valid strategic interests for the west when the war began. The essayist's lays out the argument that there are grounds for the start of talks, not involving Putin and Zelenski yet, but between principals from both sides. Erdogan has repeatedly offered his assistance as a peace broker in the war. He stated that the Grain Deal and the structure established to get it could be a precursor to peace talks. Macron has also served as a peace maker until Putin told him to fuck off.

Finally, the author points out that there are fractures now in the EU's willingness to keep supporting Ukraine that will grow over the next months in the face of costly energy shortages in a coming cold winter. US mid-term congressional elections are likely to moderate US willingness to continue to support Ukraine militarily and economically. An R dominated congress will likely demand an agreement from the Zelenski government to allow more transparency and cooperation with NATO wrt national strategy and military operations. IOW, an ultimatum to start talking with the Russians may be coming. If you want the west to keep up the flow of armaments for the defense of your sovereignty over time and dollars to support your country economically, get to the negotiating table ASAP.

[Hannibal]

muppet-kermit-the-frog.gif

[THE_WIZARD_]

heh

[Jeff Buchanan]

Hanni, you have to like my change from strategic war monger to strategic realist.

[THE_WIZARD_]

I hadn't noticed. But then again...I don't read your novels...