Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[iam416]

Anyway, it's hard to tell because you just don't know how good the polling is. It's pretty much at a "gentle red ripple" right now. I'm not sure that's the case.

That said, I don't think Oz or Walker win. I do think Laxat wins. So, I think 50/50 again.

[Dr. Strangelove]

People vote differently for Governors. More open to voting for someone from opposite party. In North Carolina 2020 the Dem Governor Cooper beat his opponent by 4.5% and the Dem candidate for Senate (Cunningham) lost by 2 points. Not as big a gap as the Kemp-Walker polling gap but I doubt Walker loses by 4. it'll probably be very close.

It's possible Oz wins Pennsylvania but either way he's looking certain to outperform the R Governor candidate by a fair margin.

Keep an eye on the Senate race and Governor race in Oklahoma too. It'd be a major upset if the Dem won the Governor's race but there's been a lot of chatter that it could be close. For the first time ever the Five Big Tribes in Oklahoma (Choctaw, Chickasaw, Creek, Cherokee, and Seminole) all agreed to endorse a single candidate in the Governor's race, in this case the Dem. The current Republican Governor apparently has antagonized them significantly. The Senate race won't be close by comparison.

[Mike]

Ohio is more red than Georgia. DeWine definitely carries huge independent vote numbers. And his opponent has basically run zero ads.

Ryan has run way more ads than Vance, at least in the Columbus market. And he's yet to say the word "democrat" in any of them. I'm not kidding. He has repeatedly says he "agrees with Trump" on trade/China. But won't say he's a "democrat".

But, yeah, independents don't explain the 20 point difference.

In Georgia, I can buy independents explaining most of the gap.

I wonder if those polls are just specific to that race or are the respondents asked about several races like they would be on a ballot. I tend to think a lot of these polls are specific to a particular race. In that case it's just A vs. B. When you actually vote and start with Governor and then on down the ballot, I tend to think there will be a lot more party unity as Hannibal suggests.

[Mike]

Anyway, it's hard to tell because you just don't know how good the polling is. It's pretty much at a "gentle red ripple" right now. I'm not sure that's the case.

That said, I don't think Oz or Walker win. I do think Laxat wins. So, I think 50/50 again.

Won't just Laxalt flipping a seat give the R's a 51-49 majority? RCP had it 52 seats for the Rs if Laxalt and Walker both win.

[iam416]

Won't just Laxalt flipping a seat give the R's a 51-49 majority? RCP had it 52 seats for the Rs if Laxalt and Walker both win.

Pennsylvania is an R seat. If Oz loses, then they're -1. They would need 2 pickups after that.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Won't just Laxalt flipping a seat give the R's a 51-49 majority? RCP had it 52 seats for the Rs if Laxalt and Walker both win.

On the map you're talking about RCP was predicting Masters wins Arizona too. I think that's the worst of their guesses.

[iam416]

It's possible Oz wins Pennsylvania but either way he's looking certain to outperform the R Governor candidate by a fair margin.

It's almost unbelievable, but Oz is a better candidate. In truth, if he weren't a carpetbagging celebrity he'd be fairly ordinary as far as candidates go. Vance, too, isn't awul. He's run an awful campaign (IMO) and I don't particularly like him, but he's not someone I can't vote for. Walker, OTOH, is just an awful candidate.

[iam416]

On the map you're talking about RCP was predicting Masters wins Arizona too. I think that's the worst of their guesses.

Yeah, I would rate that about as likely as UNL winning the West in 2022.

[Mike]

On the map you're talking about RCP was predicting Masters wins Arizona too. I think that's the worst of their guesses.

Oh, I didn't notice that. Kelly will win in Arizona. I tend to think Oz has a better chance to win than Walker. That race is tightening up and their debate might actually have some impact if Fetterman comes across as... well Fetterman.

[Mike]

FWIW, 538 just updated their Senate forecast to a 34% chance the Rs win the Senate. last I saw it was 30%. I'm starting to get a gut feeling that the leading predictors are a bit slanted toward Ds. But even so, it pretty much comes down to Georgia for the Senate and I just don't see Walker pulling it off.

[iam416]

Don't ever...EVER...let facts get in the way of a THE NARRATIVE:

According to the newly released emails, Department of Homeland Security secretary Alejandro Mayorkas was aware the popular narrative that Border Patrol agents whipped a group of Haitian migrants was false hours before he declared the incident “horrific” during a White House press conference. One of Mayorkas’s staffers sent him an email less than three hours before the press conference relaying the account of photographer Paul Ratje, who took the viral photos and said the salacious account of what happened was false. More onBORDER PATROL

“I’ve never seen them whip anyone,” Ratje said in a quote provided to Mayorkas. “He [Border Patrol agent] was swinging it [reins] but it can be misconstrued when you’re looking at the picture.”

Rather than using the information he was provided to correct the narrative, Mayorkas perpetuated the media’s misleading account of the incident by suggesting that something requiring investigation had occurred.

“I want to assure you that we are addressing this with tremendous speed and tremendous force,” Mayorkas said at the time. “The facts will drive the action we take.”

“The investigation will be all-encompassing; we will not cut a single corner,” he vowed.

Prominent Democrats, including President Biden himself, uncritically regurgitated the media’s account of the incident.

“It was horrible to see what you saw, to see people treated like they did—horses barely running them over and people being strapped,” Biden said at the time. “It’s outrageous. I promise you those people will pay…. There will be consequences. It’s an embarrassment. But beyond an embarrassment it’s dangerous, it’s wrong.” Similar rhetoric was echoed by Vice President Kamala Harris noting it reminded her of the “times of slavery.”

Speaking with National Review last year, George Syer, a retired horse patrol coordinator, noted that the conduct of the Border Patrol agents was actually standard procedure. “It’s a training tool, and it’s a training aid if a horse does not want to cooperate with its rider,” Syer explained.

Nevertheless, the agents involved were subsequently placed on administrative leave and then investigated by U.S. Customs and Border Protection. Although the investigation ultimately cleared them of whipping, disciplinary charges were brought against four agents for endangering migrants.

Reports suggest that Mayorkas’ conduct has undermined the faith of Border Patrol agents. The unraveling of the controversy and Mayorkas’ complicity has caused many to feel unprotected and vulnerable to shifting political winds.

“Border Patrol agents are very hesitant to do their jobs knowing that they could be accused by the most powerful man in the world of a crime,” Brandon Judd told Fox News late last month.

Secretary Mayorkas has yet to respond to the latest revelation.

[iam416]

FWIW, 538 just updated their Senate forecast to a 34% chance the Rs win the Senate. last I saw it was 30%. I'm starting to get a gut feeling that the leading predictors are a bit slanted toward Ds. But even so, it pretty much comes down to Georgia for the Senate and I just don't see Walker pulling it off.

It comes down to Georgia, Pennsylvania and Nevada (assuming Vance can eke out a win). Of those 3, Rs need 2. Doesn't matter what 2, but 2.

[Dr. Strangelove]

RCP isn't very clear how they reach their projections. I guess it's a combo of history, current polling average, and how far off polls were in that state in the past.

In 2020 RCP average showed Kelley up +5.7. He won by only +2.4. Maybe they think he'll underperform the polls again.

I have a hunch that the polls were farther off in 2016 and 2020 than they were in the 2018 midterms but I have nothing to back that up. It's also a mystery to me how much turnout we should expect and if polls are factoring in R turnout being similar to when Trump's name is actually on the ballot.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Feel free to respond with any video of Biden mangling the English language but Id like to believe we can all just enjoy incoherent political babble for it's own sake. I love that Cotton and Scott had to stand behind him and feign amusement at this fable. As soon as he says the bull got three cows pregnant they had to be thinking "uhhhhh, where's this going, Herschel?"

[Dr. Strangelove]

A wrinkle about Nevada polling that I had forgotten about since the last elections. It's one of the only states in the country where polls consistently error a bit in Republicans' favor. And it's true, you can look it up on RCP

2020 Presidential
RCP Avg: Biden +2.4
Actual: Biden +2.7

2018 Senate
RCP: TIE
Actual: Rosen (D) +5.0

2016 Presidential
RCP Avg: Trump +0.8
Actual: Clinton +2.4

2016 Senate
RCP Avg: Cortez Masto (D) +1.8
Actual: Cortez Masto (D) +2.4

2012 Presidential
RCP Avg: Obama +2.8
Actual: Obama +6.7

2012 Senate
RCP Avg: Heller (R) +4.0
Actual: Heller (R) +1.2