Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Dr. Strangelove]

Lots of chatter in the past 12 hours that a major portion of the Russian line in Kherson province has collapsed.

[lineygoblue]

And it begins.

DeSantis is being second-guessed by CNN and other liberal media outlets for not making Lee County's evacuation order for Hurricane Ian "mandatory". In other words, the liberal media believes that DeSantis should have ordered government officials into Lee County and FORCE people to leave their homes. That would have made great television, yes? Firemen, policemen and maybe even Coast Guard personnel dragging people from their homes, kicking and screaming.

DeSantis had good answers for the pompous fools at CNN, especially noting that the track of the hurricane was not fully predictable until just hours before it came ashore.

But one feather in the liberal media's cap today. Vee Pee Karamello Giggles says that distribution of government funds for the rebuilding of the stricken areas should be based on race. Never miss an opportunity to be a racist!

https://www.foxnews.com/media/desant...acuation-order

[Jeff Buchanan]

More bad news for the Russians. The AP is reporting that a Front Line investigation documented a large and sophisticated smuggling operation to transport stolen Ukranian grain worth $1/2 B from Ukrainian Black Sea ports to ports in Syria, Lebanon and Turkey. All of this was done under the guise of providing relief to the food shortage that Putin created by Invading Europe's "bread basket". lots of otherwise reputable Russian Shipping companies involved and are going to get hammered - most owners already sanctioned. Next move is to ID and impound ships and grain storage facilities where the stolen grain is stored under international maritime law that countries are bound to follow if they want to be in the shipping business operating ports world wide. Not small potatoes.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-business-lebanon-syria-87c3b6fea3f4c326003123b21aa78099?user_email=c1f04330e9c0a57c8aa70f2b5f07e60e0aee1aca0314f908ce7c6cf8856b9cc9&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Oct03_MorningWire&utm_term=Morning%20Wire%20Subscribers

[DaGeezer]

Thanks for posting that, Talent.

As an outsider, I've viewed Ohio as a kind of precursor to Florida. By that, I mean that Ohio used to be a toss-up state, and a bellweather as to whether a Republican could win the Presidency. Recently, Ohio has had Kasich and Mike DeWine and has had generally good governance when compared to Michigan. I don't think anyone views Ohio as a toss-up anymore, and I believe,as an outsider, good governance has produced the current R lean. The same has held true now in FL.

Either that, or it is because of Mike DeWine's ruddy good looks and scintillating personality.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Areas of Ohio that used to be solidly Dem have depopulated and flipped completely Republican now (thinking mainly of the Southeast and eastern third of the state). The Cleveland area as a whole is more Republican than it used to be. The only area moving in the counter direction is Columbus and maybe, just slightly, Cincinnati.

The new converts in NE and SE Ohio tend to be Trump Republicans. The Cinci burbs and the big chunk of western and NW Ohio that's rural and agricultural are more your Bush Republicans who have been Republican for generations. To this point that group and not the newcomers remains in control of the party.

Worth recalling that Kasich beat Trump in the 2016 primary here and the primary map of that race really fits with what I'm saying. Trump won Appalachia, where resentment and anger is probably higher than any other region of America. Kasich won all the major cities and almost all of the the true "Midwest"

2016 Ohio Republican presidential primary - Wikipedia

[iam416]

I think Ohio is probably more of a precursor for other "B10" states that are currently blueish or purple. But, I'm not sure how the demographics line up.

In Ohio, the Ds have lost Youngstown-Warren, which is fairly shocking to anyone who grew up there. The other thing that works well for Rs in Ohio is that not all the major cities are wildly D. Cincinnati is roughly 50/50 and Columbus is probably 60/40 and Dayton is still 50/50ish.

In M, the Youngstown comparison is probably something like Flint, but that's not moving R at all (or that's my guess). And there's really only one huge population center and it's massively D.

In Wisconsin, the city isn't quite dominant enough so it's a draw.

In Illinois, obviously, the city dominates. Same in Minnesota.

I think Florida urban centers aren't so solidly D -- more like Ohio. So, I guess, maybe Ohio and Florida are more alike.

[lineygoblue]

In Michigan, you can likely assume that the old 313 area code is fairly liberal in their vote. Dems know if they get the votes from there, they are in.

That would be the eastern part of Michigan from just north of Flint, and then south to the Ohio state line. It extends west to about the western Genesee County line. Those areas include Flint, Pontiac, all of Detroit and its suburbs, and Ann Arbor, which is disgustingly liberal. The rest of the state tends to be red, but has went with Clinton and Obama when Republicans put up mannequins against them.

In politics, I wish that Michigan was more like Ohio. Now excuse me while I go drink a gallon of bleach for saying that ...

[Dr. Strangelove]

Grand Rapids used to be solidly Republican but it's more 50/50 now. Trump performed worse in Kent County than any Republican since Goldwater '64 (Obama won there in 2008 too).

[DaGeezer]

I think Ohio is probably more of a precursor for other "B10" states that are currently blueish or purple. But, I'm not sure how the demographics line up.

In Ohio, the Ds have lost Youngstown-Warren, which is fairly shocking to anyone who grew up there. The other thing that works well for Rs in Ohio is that not all the major cities are wildly D. Cincinnati is roughly 50/50 and Columbus is probably 60/40 and Dayton is still 50/50ish.

In M, the Youngstown comparison is probably something like Flint, but that's not moving R at all (or that's my guess). And there's really only one huge population center and it's massively D.

In Wisconsin, the city isn't quite dominant enough so it's a draw.

In Illinois, obviously, the city dominates. Same in Minnesota.

I think Florida urban centers aren't so solidly D -- more like Ohio. So, I guess, maybe Ohio and Florida are more alike.

Agreed. And good governance matters. DeWine and DeSantis are good governors.

I'm no expert on the demographics of other B10 states, but it seems to me that those that have one huge urban center are reliably D. Michigan is most like IL of those B10 states. Old D political machines have dominated Chicago, Philadelphia, Detroit, and Cleveland. Columbus is more like Indy in that it is "newly developed". Now, I'll be accused of racism, but factually those cities that have the highest black population seem to be the cities that have been and are most Dem. Detroit # 3, Gary #4 Baltimore # 9(shouldn't be considered B10, I know), Chicago, Philly,, Cleveland, and Milwaukee, (these taken from US census 2020.) The Ds denigrate fly-over country, but their hold on national power is based on these old industrial cities. Without them, the coasts can vote overwhelmingly D, and the Blue Wall will still collapse.

When you Ohio guys read posts from M guys you can see the fatalism that out-state MI has for state-wide elections. Even DSL should understand why out-staters want monitors on the vote count in the SE part of the state, particularly since the Ds prevented oversight there. Democrats vote to eat. They take winning elections much more seriously than do Rs. And they are better at it.

[DaGeezer]

DSL: Just to make your day,

The Supreme Court, in Moore v. Harper, will consider the question of whether the state courts can overturn rules for elections that are established by the state legislatures. The question concerns Article I, Section 4, of the U.S. Constitution, which states: “The Times, Places and Manner of holding Elections for Senators and Representatives, shall be prescribed in each State by the Legislature thereof.” Likewise, Article II, Section 1, provides: “Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors.”

What will be interesting is how they treat alternate slates of electors like those that Trump tried to form. Maybe they won't get there, but Trump's prosecution for these alternate slates should come in 2023 around the time the SC is deciding this case. BTW, this case does not arise out of the 2020 election.

[Tom W]

Areas of Ohio that used to be solidly Dem have depopulated and flipped completely Republican now (thinking mainly of the Southeast and eastern third of the state). The Cleveland area as a whole is more Republican than it used to be. The only area moving in the counter direction is Columbus and maybe, just slightly, Cincinnati.

The new converts in NE and SE Ohio tend to be Trump Republicans. The Cinci burbs and the big chunk of western and NW Ohio that's rural and agricultural are more your Bush Republicans who have been Republican for generations. To this point that group and not the newcomers remains in control of the party.

Worth recalling that Kasich beat Trump in the 2016 primary here and the primary map of that race really fits with what I'm saying. Trump won Appalachia, where resentment and anger is probably higher than any other region of America. Kasich won all the major cities and almost all of the the true "Midwest"

Kasich seemed like a solid, pragmatic candidate in 2016. His biggest drawback is that he didn't seem willing to punch back at Hillary. Unfortunately, Trump was the only one that was willing to step into the mudpit with her and the rest is history.

[iam416]

Kasich is sort of a dick. DeWine is a legit good dude.

[Dr. Strangelove]

When you Ohio guys read posts from M guys you can see the fatalism that out-state MI has for state-wide elections. Even DSL should understand why out-staters want monitors on the vote count in the SE part of the state, particularly since the Ds prevented oversight there. Democrats vote to eat. They take winning elections much more seriously than do Rs. And they are better at it.

Just to be clear on this, the Republicans were allowed to observe the election in Detroit and Wayne County. They just tried to send in many MORE observers than they were allowed by law and some of those people, not even locals, were refused entry. Most states if not all require observers to be local.

Ohio's population is spread out moreso than Michigan or Illinois but the more important factor is possibly college education. The % of people in Ohio with college degrees is closer to Indiana and Missouri, other Republican states, than it is to Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan, or Pennsylvania.

All this is also to say I think Florida is pretty unique. It has one of the highest % of senior votes in the country and also has a very high % of immigrants, both naturalized and not.

[froot loops]

Da Geezer has been peddling that BS for years without evidence.

[lineygoblue]

Its just so ironic that places like Harvey, Michigan... and Paw Paw Michigan, and even Bad Axe Michigan can get their vote results in long before midnight on election days, but big, mighty, "modern" Wayne County can't get the results in until 3 days later, and especially when Dems have had time to determine how many votes their candidate needs to win.

Detroit --- "Moving ahead with Coleman Young" still rings true in 2022.