Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Dr. Strangelove]

Allow me to suggest the new million man strong Russian Army may have some discipline problems

[THE_WIZARD_]

Stacey Abrams performing the Don Johnson classic hit "Heartbeat"...

don't care what you say
you can give it away
Your money don't mean much to me.
I've been out on my own
gonna got it alone now
'Cause that's the way it's got to be.
Ev'rybody tells me how I can beat the odds for now.
Well
I've been standing by the fire
but I iust can't feel the heat.
Heartbeat - I'm looking for a heartbeat
Heartbeat - I'm looking for a heartbeat

[THE_WIZARD_]

The party of "Trust the Science"...

[Dr. Strangelove]

[Dr. Strangelove]

If you look at his other posts, this reporter is predicting a rough road for countries swinging between negative rates and high positive ones. But the country he’s most concerned about is the UK. They’ve seen wild swings in bond prices the past few days and the pound has fallen to its lowest point in almost 40 years.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I mean, the pieces fit and predict economic doom and gloom. There are always mid-points between predicted pathways. Never as bad or as good as indicators of all types suggesting an outcome.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Everything this administration has done has been a disastrous failure.

[crashcourse]

well thats got to be a record--have the dow lose almost 5000 during your presidency--tune in next week when Joe goes for immortality

[Jeff Buchanan]

Some not well analyzed things are going down in Russia. We're getting hawt takes that upon further review have implications beyond those that meet the eye on first observation. Putin announces a "partial mobilization." The Kremlin, hoping to stem a predicted public backlash, articulates all kinds of conscription restrictions, e.g., only 300K will be mobilized, only those with previous reserve training, no students, workers in defense industries, etc., etc., will be drafted. Next, Putin sends out the FSB and Rosgovardia to deliver draft notices in person, in the dead of night, ushering draftees to recruitment centers at gunpoint. Russian bloggers are speculating that the Kremlin's target number of draftees may approach one million.

Meanwhile, the Kremlin is hastily setting up polling places inside both Ukraine and Russia - the polling places inside Russia to allow displaced Ukrainians to vote for annexation of the territories and provinces they fled at gunpoint or were kidnapped from - to conduct a sham referendum "legalizing" Russian occupation of Ukraine. It's the same gamut he played in Crimea in 2017 and in parts of Luhansk and Donetsk provinces when he set up his proxy army of Russian occupiers in 2014.

Sure, I'm also reading that conscription of Russian men to fight in Ukraine is going to have no immediate military impact for any number of reasons on a long list of them. Nor will the west's leaders recognize the results of an election with a predetermined result. Well, that's encouraging isn''t it? Actually no. Not if you adhere to the view that Putin is playing the long game that I've laid out here. He is intent on annexing regions of Ukraine he considers Russia's. That IMO sets up a cascade of geopolitically bad events. You can disagree with that outcome but, given the wilbur-milk-toast, ball-less talk of world leaders urging Putin to withdraw his army and end his nuclear threats, it's unlikely Putin will alter the course he has set for himself and mother Russia.

Look, what that motherfucker understands is raw power. The west has it, in spades and can apply it against a fragile, becoming less supportive Russian public and a military that is demonstrably ill-equipped and led, that is defending a country more likely to fold than fight. I can think of a few sporting ways to initiate said fight and see what happens. Somebody needs to step up the plate and force Putin to make hard choices. Talk is cheap.

[Obi-Jon]

Crash - this is your opportunity to make a lot of money...."buying the dip". If you play the market, max out your 401(k) / Roth stock contribution and throw what spare change you have into index funds. If you're personally doing okay, lump sum buy index funds funds for your kids or open a 529 fund for them. In a couple of years when the market returns to 35-36k levels, you'll be glad you did.

[Da Geezer]

well thats got to be a record--have the dow lose almost 5000 during your presidency--tune in next week when Joe goes for immortality

Today was the day that the Dow Industrials broke through their June lows. The Dow Transports did that two weeks ago. According to the Dow theory, when two Dow indices break through resistance points, that indicates another 10-20% lower.

Most major "crashes" have happened in September-October. Some of you young bucks probably don't remember when the Dow went down 22.6% in one day in the mid-1980s Largest one-day decline in US history. The day following was the largest percentage gain in history, too.

[THE_WIZARD_]

I would recommend all the progs here to jump out a window of a tall building...preferably from the top floor...

[Jeff Buchanan]

US Intel sources are reporting that Putin has rejected a recommendation from field commanders to conduct an orderly withdrawal from the city of Kherson. This confirms Putin's direct involvement with tactical decision making as low as the BTG level and probably more directly at the regimental level. A Russian regiment has 3 - 6 BTGs of 200-300 infantry mean each. Right now, it is believed BTGs are routinely only 30% combat ready.

Russian field commanders in and around Kherson are probably making rational military decisions that are in conflict with Putin's political objectives. Its apparent from bits and pieces I read that Ukraine is winning the artillery battle Russia elected to focus on after their defeat and withdrawl from Kiev. At that point, they had an advantage and were playing to their strength waging attrition warfare. Ukrainian artillery strikes are likely wreaking havoc behind front lines of contact. The Russian army is in an unsustainable position with Putin setting unattainable political objectives inconsistent with in theater combat power. That is the case in both theaters, east and south, where Russian forces are deployed in Ukraine.

[Jeff Buchanan]

After I posted yesterday suggesting the west needed to take more concrete steps to force Putins hand, I read a good article this morning describing what the authors thought the west's strategy was.

Basically, it's to wait out Putin. The intell picture above likely supports this reactive approach rather than a proactive and potentially escaltory one. If Putin, in desperation, were to fire a tactical nuke, it is unlikely, experts say, that the west would respond in kind. A shoulder shrug is more likely.

My concern is the downward spiraling economic and financial conditions in the west that Putin will be leveraging. I don't think he cares much about that his armed forces are getting beat up on. At present any negotiated settlements are months if not a year or more away. I'm not confident political leadership in the west will be able to continue to support the current approach to Putin as public support for that erodes in the face of economic and financial pain.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Could give a boost to Arizona Dems.

Judge lifts injunction against an 1864 law that bans all abortion, no rape/incest exceptions

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona/2022/09/23/arizona-ban-on-nearly-all-abortions-in-effect-judge-rules/8075792001/