Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[froot loops]

Damn -- Loomer's gonna lose after all. Bummer. Hard to win a campaign against an incumbent backed by the establishment without any social media.

A bummer? WTF?

[froot loops]

[Hannibal]

That Desantis ad is cringe as fuck. Truly embarrassing.

[Hannibal]

The Dem won the special district 19 election in New York. Wasn’t that supposed to be an easy win for the R?

[Dr. Strangelove]

The Dem won the special district 19 election in New York. Wasn’t that supposed to be an easy win for the R?

Not an easy win because I think it was an almost dead even district. This race was under the old district lines. Both candidates will be running again in just a few months but not against each other because they'll shift to the new districts. Molinaro (R) is staying in the new 19th and the Dem who just won (Ryan) will be shifting to the new 18th. But Ryan is almost a sure thing in November now and Molinaro will still have a decent fight on his hands with Ithaca and Binghamton in his new district.

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/hudson-valley/news/2022/08/24/pat-ryan-wins-ny-19-special-election

[Dr. Strangelove]

But the Rs did massively outspend the Dems trying to win NY19 because they were hoping to fatally weaken Ryan and take both districts come November.

EDIT: All in all it's another indication that the climate isn't quite as bad for Dems as in late 2021. But we're still speculating over how big the Republican majority will be. I don't think it's realistic to think the Dems will hold the House.

[Dr. Strangelove]

When Newt Gingrich predicted Republicans may flip 70 seats, that was obviously delusional. A 35-40 seat pickup is closer to the actual ceiling but that is starting to look like a longshot, "best case" scenario now.

If the Rs win every single Lean R and Toss-up seat (according to 538's current ratings) they would control 233 seats and have about a 30 seat majority. Bigger than that means they have to win Lean Dem districts and I'm not sure they've done that this year in any special election. They also can't afford to blow what should be slam dunk seats for them like the one up in Alaska.

Not that his ratings are beyond reproach but that's to give an idea of the sort of seats Rs must win to have a really large majority. They need to beat people like Slotkin and Spanberger

[Dr. Strangelove]

And oh yeah, longtime NY firebrand and loudmouth Carl Paladino lost his primary race. In true Trumper fashion he's refusing to concede and implying fraud.

Langworthy declared victor over Paladino - POLITICO

[Hannibal]

Speaking of Newt Gingrich, the Republicans don't have that uniting figure and a "Contract with America" style agenda that clearly lays out what they intend to do. The Rs are very fractured right now and that doesn't help. The Rs were united tightly in 1994. That's why they appear to be failing at taking advantage of Biden's epic unpopularity and the high level of discontent with the state of things in America. The Senate candidates in Georgia and Pennsylvania are garbage; Those are two very easily winnable seats that are likely going to go Dem. Vance is a garbage candidate too but he's probably going to make it across the finish line. The Rs can still win the Senate if they offset the loss of Pennsylvania with gains in Arizona and Nevada. Both of those races are toss-ups. And I guess that there's still a chance that Herschel Walker could win.

The Republican establishment hates their base. One of the reasons why so many of us are eager to see Desantis as the party's leader is that he has an agenda that will satisfy the base tremendously, but he is also well-liked by the Ben Shapiro types and the big donors. But he does lack charisma and the ability to connect with voters.

The backlash over Dobbs is also real. But that's the price that you pay for advancing your agenda. Sometimes you get a little backlash. And Republicans in many states are overstepping their mandate and trying to ban abortion altogether. It's a shame that so much or our populace has "consequence-free orgasms" as their only relevant political issue, but that's how it is.

[Hannibal]

A bummer? WTF?

Loomer's agenda:

• Banning affirmative action (win)
• Ending Big Tech censorship (win)
• Banning all Covid vaccination mandates and having everyone who was fired or discharged restored to their former jobs (win)
• Election integrity (win)
• Anti alphabet bullshit (win)
• Ending the corruption and politicization of the country's alphabet agencies (win)
• Immigration moratorium and expulsion of illegal immigrants (win)
• Outlawing criticism of Israel (boooo -- but eh. I'll accept it as a wart)

So yeah, it sucks that the RINO got the nomination in a Trump +35 district. The Republicans need to follow the Democrat model of running their most hardcore agenda-driven guys in districts that they can easily win and then run moderates in the purple locales. Preferably,. fake "moderates" who will always vote the party line, which is what the Democrats do.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Warnock is still the Dem Senator most in danger, even if Walker talks like a 55 year old former heavyweight champ hired to greet VIPs entering the Flamingo Casino

Unless Masters makes a big move soon, Arizona is slipping away. There's no guarantee polls are ever right but Kelly has been holding a steady comfortable lead for a while. And unlike polls in Wisconsin and PA, the 2020 polls in Arizona & Georgia were pretty spot on.

There's also New Hampshire. Although there's a lot of college-educated women up there and post-Dobbs they may bail out Hassan.

[Hannibal]

I haven't seen a poll from a decent pollster for Arizona. At least not on RCP.

[Hannibal]

This tweet is totally racist "Ethnic Replacement" is a right win conspiracy theory!

5674fcc7d65dcbc2.jpg

[CGVT]

RINO=Anyone who is not batshit crazy

[Dr. Strangelove]

I haven't seen a poll from a decent pollster for Arizona. At least not on RCP.

Fox just had one showing Kelly up 8. They have an A rating at 538. Got Arizona pretty nailed in 2020, heh