Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Da Geezer]

It'd require some research but I don't know that we've ever had a recession where GDP shrunk two quarters but unemployment fell and the number of jobs rose significantly during those same two quarters. By the book definition this is a recession but we're in some uncharted territory because things (I believe this is accuarate, but could be wrong) are happening in the opposite order they usually take place.

I believe unemployment usually goes up either before GDP starts to shrink or at worst they move together. During the financial crisis, unemployment started to rise in the middle of 2007 but all 4 quarters of 2007 were positive for GDP. Unemployment went from 4.4% in May 2007 to over 6% by August 2008. But the recession officially didn't start until the 4th quarter of 2008 (two negative quarters in a row)

Bureau of Labor Statistics Data (bls.gov)

Much of what you say is correct.

1. I think there are two causes of a recession, lack of supply and lack of demand. Lack of demand is like the Great Depression when banks closing and people not being to get to their money caused a sharp lack of demand. Most economists agree that "helicopter money" is the policy prescription for that.

What we have now is a lack of supply, which drives inflation. But it also means that paying people not to work gets you more people not working and not even looking to work. This is why when you drive around the Midwest anyway, you see "help wanted" signs everywhere. Restaurants, where I live, have decided to not open on Monday because of labor shortages. Most states had calculated the proper amount of unemployment insurance they should pay to someone who lost their job, not of their own volition. The fed gov decided to pay everyone $ 15.00/hr above the unemployment benefit previously calculated. Why work? And once you figure out how to get by without working, you'll tend to not work even when the "excess" benefits are reduced.

2. Let's keep in mind the definition of two consecutive quarters of negative growth is both backward-looking and a long time. To me, it means you have to have been in a negative economy for half a year. Trump had that in the first and second quarters of 2020, the 2nd quarter being down 20%. Third quarter GDP growth was 30%. I'm thinking the shock of the pandemic changed the denominator used for these calculations so much that they may be less meaningful now than during "normal" times.

3. The policy prescription for a lack of supply is now and has always been tax cuts to incentivize people to work more and produce more because they get to keep more. JFK did that and so did RR. But again, there has not been any time in history when welfare payments have been so high. And, since welfare recipients don't pay taxes, reductions in marginal tax rates do not incentivize them.

[froot loops]

It seems like you fellas are disappointed that the jobs report didn't say 25k. You fellas are rooting for a recession.

[lineygoblue]

It's really great that those burger flippers are now making a "living wage". Mind not that "crazy" is the new norm.

Yeah, $11.25 per hour for working at a drive thru window (part time, of course) should be plenty for a soul to make a decent living. That's the irony behind all this. These "jobs" that are being filled are still mostly part time. When employers hire, they bring in people at part time, so they don't have to include benefits. Then, they require part-timers to work overtime, still avoiding benefits.

Wal-Mart announced this week that they are laying people off. And, their stores are doing away with live cashiers, and going with self-serve checkouts in most stores. So even the multi billion dollar Wal Mart corporation is eliminating jobs. They don't even have greeters anymore ...

Sam must be turning in his grave. He and Walt Disney must be sitting up in Heaven and wondering why people have lost their minds.

[THE_WIZARD_]

It's not rocket fucking science...too many dollars chasing too few goods and services...and now the Chairman and dumbass dems/progs/RINO's want to make it worse.

JFC

[froot loops]

Yeah, $11.25 per hour for working at a drive thru window (part time, of course) should be plenty for a soul to make a decent living. That's the irony behind all this. These "jobs" that are being filled are still mostly part time. When employers hire, they bring in people at part time, so they don't have to include benefits. Then, they require part-timers to work overtime, still avoiding benefits.

Wal-Mart announced this week that they are laying people off. And, their stores are doing away with live cashiers, and going with self-serve checkouts in most stores. So even the multi billion dollar Wal Mart corporation is eliminating jobs. They don't even have greeters anymore ...

Sam must be turning in his grave. He and Walt Disney must be sitting up in Heaven and wondering why people have lost their minds.

If you are worried about big corporate entities doing all the part time jobs to mostly get away from paying health insurance then being a diehard GOP voter seems like a strange decision.

[froot loops]

It's not rocket fucking science...too many dollars chasing too few goods and services...and now the Chairman and dumbass dems/progs/RINO's want to make it worse.

JFC

So in essence, you as a Trumper you are rooting for a recession. Congrats on that.

Or it could be the high gas prices are a force multiplier. If it were just the policy that Joe Biden championed that caused the inflation, the inflation problems wouldn't be global they would be acute to the US economy.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Off topic but if anyone heard about the lightning strike right next to the White House, I guess two of the people hit have died. An elderly couple visiting from Wisconsin

[lineygoblue]

Well, I must be doing something right. Froot wants me to notice him again. That ignore feature only works part of the time.

So, since you want me to talk to you, I'll indulge you for a moment.

If you knew me, like you think you do, you might be surprised at what I really believe. I am a strong supporter of collective bargaining and union representation, but I do not support the union's positions on social issues. I believe union representation for wages, benefits and work rules are highly beneficial, especially when dealing with large corporations. I was a member of the Communications Workers of America (CWA) for 31 years, serving as a steward, chief steward, and unit organizer. When our unit in Florida won representation with AT&T, I sat on the first bargaining committee that bargained the first local contract between AT&T and CWA in Orlando Florida. That's a right to work state, btw. Several of my recommendations were adopted in the first contract. We had nearly 70% of our unit organized and signed on cards.

I separate myself from my union on social issues. I am pro-life. Strongly so. The CWA is not. I oppose special rights for gays, including gay marriage, which I believe is morally wrong and an abomination to God. And yes, I am a evangelical Christian, which puts me at odds with many other social issues promoted by the CWA. I believe EVERYONE matters, not just black lives, which puts me in the "bigot" category.

I am no longer in the CWA, (retired 2010) but I did recently join the Teamsters Union with my current job at SATA. Again, collective bargaining is a good thing. Teamster politics is not always a good thing, but the collective bargaining has provided some decent benefits, and a nice pay scale.

So go on with your mistaken beliefs about what I believe. Its humorous to see you continue to punch that wet paper bag.

[Hannibal]

Unemployment is low because work force participation is still terrible and hasn't even recovered to its nadir in the Obama years.


At any rate, it usually takes a quarter or two for unemployment to catch up with the negative GDP growth of a recession. In W's first term, it took unemployment a couple of years to catch up to the stagnation caused by the dot com crash. You all may remember the economy being really shitty in 1992, but it actually grew in every quarter that year. It was the unemployment that was bad. The same phenomenon will likely start happening in this instance as well as businesses scale back in response to declining demand and skyrocketing costs.

[Hannibal]

Covid isn't responsible for this. Woefully incompetent governance in response to Covid is what is responsible for this. Most of the world is run by morons who thought that you could just turn off the world's economy for a few months and then turn it back on like a light switch. Not so coincidentally, most of the first world is also following the policies recommended by Klaus Schwab and Greta Thunberg. Thus, there is an artificially created energy shortage around the world that could be remedied very easily. Rather than implementing those easily identified remedies though, governments are now doubling down and doing their best to create food shortages too (see: Canada, Netherlands, and Sri Lanka).

[Hannibal]

CRT is invading the medical profession too. No sector is safe. It's a fucking cancer.

c88daf98ab6394f1.jpg

[Hannibal]

It's not rocket fucking science...too many dollars chasing too few goods and services...and now the Chairman and dumbass dems/progs/RINO's want to make it worse.

JFC

Of course it's not rocket science. Maybe that's part of the problem. Have you ever heard the saying "Socialism in general has a record of failure so blatant that only an intellectual could ignore or evade it."?

[Dr. Strangelove]

Jobs-builder Joe delivering a riveting speech right now while wearing aviators

[Tom W]

That "Aviator" is so clueless that he could fly into Mount Rainier without even knowing it.

[THE_WIZARD_]

heh