Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Jeff Buchanan]

Jeff- Seeing a lot of chatter that Putin may make an actual war declaration during the May 9th victory parade. Could include a total closing of the borders. Begin the compulsory drafting of all able bodied men.

Same here but it is subtle messaging of that in the BBC, Economist and CTR feeds I'm following - it is patently clear that Putin's in theater generals are telling him "we need more soldiers and replacement equipment." There are ample reports of "recruitment" inside Russia (and that's an overly euphemistic term in light of what's actually going on) of able bodied men. Putin is playing the long game here recognizing he's going to have to turn the Donbas region along with Crimea and the Kherson Oblast (includes Odessa) into police states where the police are regular soldiers shooting the uncooperative with rifiles - that never goes well. The west is countering with their own long game - cut off Russia's ability to finance Putin's war aims.

In the southward axis emerging from Kharkiv toward Isyum, Russian armor is limited to two roadways leading to the east. Once again, they are getting hammered by Ukrainian artillery, probably air strikes and local defenders armed with Javelin. CTR reports advances by Russian forces along this axis of advance are being disrupted by effective Ukrainian defensive maneuver warfare - a version of hit and run tactics that instead of staying in defensive positions, they advance on exposed and poorly supported Russian armor and APC columns, do some damage and fall-back. It's sound tactics against a supposedly superior enemy who are turning out to be way less capable than was thought when this thing kicked off.

It appears the Ukrainian counterbattery fires are way more effective than the Russian versions of the same. If you are going to win tactical battles that involve seizing and holding territory the offense has to attrit the defense's armor and artillery with, in part, effective counter battery fires. The Ukrainian's by all reports are winning this battle. This is a consistent analysis between the BBC, CTR and sparse Pentagon reports that add while military losses in terms of personnel and equipment are high on both sides, Russian losses are 5 fold that of Ukraine's.

Because the battle space that the Russian are now focusing on is flat and open, while it should favor Russian armor and the army's tactical maneuver warfare doctrine, it isn't. First, you can bet the Ukrainians are getting great intel from western sources derived from overhead imaging that is pinpointing exposed Russian army movement and positions. Second, the mud and stiff partisan and regular Ukrainian air and ground forces are finding exposed Russian forces on roadways in "target rich environments" and taking advantage of that.

I'm also reading that Russian political activities in Mariupol and Kherson involving replacing currency, installing Russian administrators and building pro-Russian political infrastructure are underway, it seems that Putin is getting ahead of himself. His army has questionable control of these two cities. Partisan resistance to these activities is going to be problematic for months and years to come.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Obviously can't vouch for this but this Ukrainian journalist claims that Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov was wounded and the actual target of the artillery strike yesterday that killed another Russian General. This is something akin to General Milley being wounded near the front.

[Da Geezer]

Is there any truth to the rumor that Putin is going to have surgery for abdominal cancer?

[THE_WIZARD_]

The Chairman, showing his incredible political acumen, is focused on canceling college debt. In fact, if you believe the WaPo -- and as unofficial organ of the D party, you probably should on this -- it sounds like it's going to happen. A couple points.

(1) He almost certainly doesn't have the authority to cancel student debt. I mean, he doesn't, but the "almost" is in there because he only lacks the authority if a Court faithfully applies the law, so there's a small chance. For this proposition I merely cite -- prepare yourselves -- Nancy Pelosi -- "The President can't do it. That's not even a discussion." (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/28/pelo...ent-debt-.html)

(2) Despite his total lack of authority to do so, The Chairman seems intent on ignoring the law and trying to, by executive fiat, give D Voters money. College-educated folks are, of course, strongly pro-technocrat. And, of course, college-educated folks only make up something like 36% of the population. So, The Chairman is targeting a debt forgiveness for his voters. I mean, why not? Can he really go any lower in polling?

(3) The cost of this will depend on whatever limits he opts to place on the cancellation, but it will probably be around $500B or something. Maybe more. That's free money. Injected into the economy whilst the number one issue on voters' minds is, well, inflation.

There are, of course, many other points to be made. But, I think this nicely sums up The Chairman and D party -- doing something they know is illegal (or they can't do) for the benefit of their own voters whilst exacerbating the one issue voters really care about.

Hey, you know....BIDEN BOOM!

(*My apologies for citing a CNBC article and quoting Pelosi directly. I know that's just propaganda and lies).

Debt forgiveness...it's in the Bible you know...Chairman Poopypants is now becoming Preacher Poopypants.

Financial recklessness...ON STEROIDS!!!

[Jeff Buchanan]

Is there any truth to the rumor that Putin is going to have surgery for abdominal cancer?

Have not heard that but there are several things that have led to speculation that he is ill: COVID fear he's exhibited may be a pretext to cover another illness. He looks like he's on steroids (moon fasces). If you look at pictures of him 5y ago, He looks much leaner. Steroids are frequently given at the same time as chemotherapeutic agents as a preventive measure. To help control chemotherapy-induced nausea and vomiting.

In a recent staged press conference, Putin didn't look right. He gripped the table as if propping himself up or in extreme pain. There was a lot of speculation about that but it faded.

BTW, multiple sources inside Ukraine confirmed (as best as they can be believed) that Russian Major General Alexei Simonov was killed on April 30th in an attack on a command post near Izyum. Gerasimov was reportedly wounded in the same attack.

What's happening here with all these Russian generals being killed indicates that the Ukrainians, with the help from the US, is getting near real time signals and communications intelligence (SIGINT/COMINT) targeting these guys. Sure, the cluster-fuck at the Regimental, Battalion and Company levels that characterizes Russian offensive operations at the tactical level purportedly sent these guys to forward positions but that's only a part of it. They're out there and my take is that they are being effectively targeted in a sophisticated way..

This is NATO and western EW at the black program level. We had heard that Russian encryption gear had failed forcing the use of cell-phones, requiring only rudimentary triangulation to pinpoint the cell-phone's location. That can't be all. 30y ago, the US had the capability to do some impressive stuff in the EW arena. A guy who was working on this told me not only did they know where Saddam Hussein was but they could tell what he had for dinner by the smell of a shit he took. No kidding. You may recall, a laser guided 500 pound bomb lofted from an A6 flying off USS America in the Med. Saddam's bedroom window was lazed by a Recon Marine on the ground, The bomb went right through Saddam's bedroom window. He and family members had bolted after getting a warning the attack was on but it killed some strap hangers.

Targeting high value personnel is a long standing warfare tactic. In this case, it is being accomplished at a very impressive level. What is surprising is that the impact on the Ukrainians in this arena, ostensibly from sophisticate and technologically equipped Russian EW units, hasn't done jack-shit ...... that we know of.

[THE_WIZARD_]

fascinating

[Dr. Strangelove]

Is there any truth to the rumor that Putin is going to have surgery for abdominal cancer?

The rumor I see most often is thyroid cancer.

[Whitley]

If he didn't have the authority (through the education department) to cancel debt then all the previous student loan debt cancellations should go away as well. Funny, I never heard the Republicans bitching a whole bunch about the previous cancellations of student debt.

Second point here is that the student debt is at the very least a drag on the US economy. Canceling it (along with it not being counting "found income" by the IRS on all student loan debt cancellations until 2026 courtesy of the CARES Act) is going to free up a lot of people to now have money to make big time purchases (such as homes, cars and yes even getting married). Don't forget that this inflation is driven 60% by corporations hiking prices up on their own.

[Jeff Buchanan]

The rumor I see most often is thyroid cancer.

Not a cancer with a high mortality rate. If you get cancer, this is the one to get. Treatable with near 100% cure rates ....... another reason Putin might be on high dose steroids.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Don't forget that this inflation is driven 60% by corporations hiking prices up on their own.

Link?

The current level of inflation is being driven by a number of factors. The 2 important ones from what I take of it is (1) supply chain disruptions due to COVID hang-over, war in Ukraine, those factors driving too many consumers, pockets lined with helicopter money from the Chairman, chasing too few goods. (2) Initial stages of a wage-price spiral. It's correct that for most goods, higher prices are the rule but it's not because of "corporations hiking prices up on their own." It is costing more to pay workers (wage-price spiral) and more to make and deliver goods in a constrained global market.

The worst thing we can do in the US right now is give more free shit away or, as you say, forgive college debt so more people can buy stuff. That sort of thinking in the current inflationary cycle is lighting it on fire. Worst possible action right now making the feds job way harder....... of course we could have price controls, right? Or we could keep applying MMT - both fine D solutions to "equity?"

[foxhopper]

Pay your debts you fucking deadbeats.

[THE_WIZARD_]

no

[Whitley]

Link?

The current level of inflation is being driven by a number of factors. The 2 important ones from what I take of it is (1) supply chain disruptions due to COVID hang-over, war in Ukraine, those factors driving too many consumers, pockets lined with helicopter money from the Chairman, chasing too few goods. (2) Initial stages of a wage-price spiral. It's correct that for most goods, higher prices are the rule but it's not because of "corporations hiking prices up on their own." It is costing more to pay workers (wage-price spiral) and more to make and deliver goods in a constrained global market.

The worst thing we can do in the US right now is give more free shit away or, as you say, forgive college debt so more people can buy stuff. That sort of thinking in the current inflationary cycle is lighting it on fire. Worst possible action right now making the feds job way harder....... of course we could have price controls, right? Or we could keep applying MMT - both fine D solutions to "equity?"

Will get you the link when I get off work early in the morning. It is a fascinating one.

[iam416]

Whatever is in the link it’s going to argumentative at best because it’s just not accurate.

When have Presidents previously canceled student loan debt?

I mean, I appreciate the AOC talking point but that doesn’t make it so.

Finally, economics is economics. “Freeing up income” in an inflationary time is going to drive further inflation. Money supply — ie DEMAND — is still an actual thing that affects prices.

All that said, I’d actually like to understand where you’re coming from on both points.

[Hannibal]

Cancelling student loan debt does have potentially positive outcomes — if it is done wisely. But by Biden, of course , it would be done in the most incompetent, most damaging-to-society way possible.