Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Whitley]

So what is the solution JB? Boots on the ground? No fly zone?

[lineygoblue]

IMO Putin WANTS the US to get involved. When/if that happens, he can unleash even more cruelty on Ukraine. The entire motivation for his actions is that NATO is a threat to Russian security, and he needs to control events in Ukraine to make sure that doesn't happen. He'd like nothing more than to see US troops headed for Ukraine, or for the start of US air strikes.

[Whitley]

IMO Putin WANTS the US to get involved. When/if that happens, he can unleash even more cruelty on Ukraine. The entire motivation for his actions is that NATO is a threat to Russian security, and he needs to control events in Ukraine to make sure that doesn't happen. He'd like nothing more than to see US troops headed for Ukraine, or for the start of US air strikes.

That is my thoughts as well. Biden is walking a tightrope here.

The second there are boots on the ground from NATO or a no fly zone you are looking at a much increased chance of WW3.

[Jeff Buchanan]

What should have happened 2-3w ago when the Bucha horrors became news and while the Russian Army was in full retreat was a full scale NATO mobilization and a time lined ultimatum for Russian forces to withdraw beyond ukranian boarders and for DNR and LNR separatists to disarm.

The legal basis for the mobilization is the Genocide Conventions of 1995 (bypasses the UNSC requirement for use of military force to stop genocide). NATO can act unilaterally. Each time line that is missed by the Russisns escalates the NATO response.

Maybe starts with a no fly zone over Kiev and Laviv, then Kharkiv then east and so forth. The best time to confront Russion BTGs on the ground was 2w ago. I'll leave the deployment of NATO ground forces to the tacticians.... and you can count on planning for that has been ongoing for months.

Threat of nuclear escalation? Deal with it. I've posted previously about that. Sure, it's a risk but is too heavily factored at present.

[Whitley]

Threat of nuclear escalation? Deal with it. I've posted previously about that. Sure, it's a risk but is too heavily factored at present.

So you want boots on the ground/no fly zone. Things that are an act of war. This is a guy that had his troops stay a MONTH in Chernobyl which is still giving off high levels of radiation. You don't deal with it once nukes are fired. There is no dealing with that.

And what happens when Russia doesn't follow the ultimatum given them (And there is no indication they would do that) by NATO?

[Jeff Buchanan]

First, one has to grounded in the fundamental view that Putin's strategy in Ukraine is to exterminate or terrorize civilian non-combatants in a methodical and puposefull way to achieve Ukranian prostration and surrender. If one is not so grounded, there's no reason to continue a discussion where I'm advocating for the use of force to stop it.

Diplomacy? Sanctions? Putin doesn't reason on that level so, while it's possible he would involve himself meaningfully in peace negotiations he's forced into because of a failing economy and default, the probability is low.

I also think that if he feels he needs a decisive event to achieve his objectives in the face of an economic war he's losing, he'll resort to chemical, biological and nuclear warfare in a stepwise escalating ladder anyway. Our current strategy is just delaying the inevitability of an unconventional exchange between NATO and Russiin forces.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Happy Easter JB.

Give it a rest bro.

[Tom W]

Here's something that should be kept in mind before we risk all-out WW3 by going full throttle to help our Ukrainian friends: They AREN'T part of NATO, and that membership does have privileges AND obligations. Things just work differently in that part of the world and we shouldn't expect the them to play by the same "good guy" rules as the Brits, Norwegians, Germans or the Poles.

[Jeff Buchanan]

My advocacy for military intervention as I described above has no relationship to NATO member's obligations. It is based on the provisions of The Genocide Conventions of 1948. This convention was subsequently used to determine that Serbia was in violation of the 1948 Conventions in pursuit of it's military and political objectives in Kosovo. The UN after multiple UNSC Resolutions to force Milosivic to stop the killing of civilians and negotiate a peace deal, failing those, the UN stepped around the UNSC and authorized NATO air operations in Kosovo in 1998-99.

It is crystal clear that Putin is committing genocide in Ukraine. Talking about making him accountable in the international bodies that have already received allegations of genocide from Ukraine is useless and only symbolic. Milosivic wasn't moved by similar UN and court actions in 1988-89 and ultimately was forced to the negotiating table by 11 months of NATO air operations that had as their objective to interdict and destroy Serbian military forces.

My view is that this is what it's going to take to get Putin to stand down. Of course there are risks. Yugoslavia, at the time NATO undertook air strikes in that country, wasn't a nuclear power but was aligned with Russia who would have vetoed any UNSC resolution for military action there. I'm not going to underplay the chance that a NATO engagement with Russian forces would prompt a nuclear exchange. But fundamentally, the world is letting Putin blackmail it with a threat of the threat of using nukes while he deliberately pursues a strategic objective of killing civilian non-combatants and inflicting billions of dollars in damage on non-military Ukrainian infrastructure.

Tom is right when he states "things just work differently in that part of the world......" which is exactly why all the talk and posturing doesn't mean shit to Putin. What he does fear and what would likely force him to the negotiating table is an escalating NATO engagement in Ukraine with the intent of forcing meaningful negotiations. Without that leverage, the genocide will continue unabated and, IMO, irrespective of sanctions and arming the Ukrainian military.

Edit: this is a complete description of how the NATO campaign in the Balkans was authorized and, more interestingly, the fall-out during and after the fact:

https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1424&context=ils

[Obi-Jon]

Western weapons inflow is having an effect. Aljazeera conservatively estimates 3000 pieces of heavy hardware have been lost by the orcs. So far.


ukraine.JPG

[Tom W]

It is crystal clear that Putin is committing genocide in Ukraine. Talking about making him accountable in the international bodies that have already received allegations of genocide from Ukraine is useless and only symbolic. Milosivic wasn't moved by similar UN and court actions in 1988-89 and ultimately was forced to the negotiating table by 11 months of NATO air operations that had as their objective to interdict and destroy Serbian military forces.

Your arguments are sound, Jeff. Sure, the Russian ARE brutal and Putin is a tyrant that needs to be throttled. No doubt there. But they can't be COMPLETELY inept and the Ukranians most certainly aren't completely innocent victims. Since most news sources have lost all credibility, there's a risk that we're (intentionally) only hearing one side of the story, and that we'll wind up getting into yet another quagmire where neither side shares our best interests,

[lineygoblue]

IMO, when the Germans, Poles, Greeks, Turks, Italians, and especially the French start massing troops on the Ukrainian border to invade and throw out the Russians, THEN I think the US should consider backing them all up.

Until then, no.

[lineygoblue]

Meanwhile, the mostly peaceful Islamic Republic of Iran threatened war with Israel again today, stating they will 'strike the very heart of the zionist entity" if even slightly provoked. I'd almost like to see that, since Israel would mop the floor with Iran in a matter of weeks. And, a lot of neighboring Arab nations would sit by, pop some popcorn, and watch Israel clobber those radical ragheads.

I'm sure that a lot of people in Iran would be pleased with the radical Islamic government being tossed out on their asses as well.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Warmonger.

[Da Geezer]

Meanwhile, the mostly peaceful Islamic Republic of Iran threatened war with Israel again today, stating they will 'strike the very heart of the zionist entity" if even slightly provoked. I'd almost like to see that, since Israel would mop the floor with Iran in a matter of weeks. And, a lot of neighboring Arab nations would sit by, pop some popcorn, and watch Israel clobber those radical ragheads.

I'm sure that a lot of people in Iran would be pleased with the radical Islamic government being tossed out on their asses as well.

Unfortunately, I am pretty sure that the Biden Administration would do almost anything to stop Israel from doing what needs to be done. They (and Obama before them) seem to think that Iranian hegemony among Muslims in the ME is in our national interest.