Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Dr. Strangelove]

Benjamin Hall, one of Fox's war correspondents was injured or wounded today. Reportedly hospitalized. Fox doesn't have much info yet.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Israel hit by massive cyberattack.

Report: Israeli Government Websites Down Due To Suspected Cyberattack - I24NEWS

[Dr. Strangelove]

Sounds like the PMs of Poland, Slovenia, and the Czech Republic are going to Kyiv today. Pretty gutsy.

The woman who protested on live Russian tv last night has not been seen or heard from since. A number of lawyers have been trying to represent her and are getting brushed off by police.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Between reports from Kremlin sources and Ukrainian sources it's difficult to assess the state of the battle space. I'm using a link from a US think tank, The Institute for the Study of War, that keeps track of global threats to US National Security. It is 100% military analysis of what's going on with Russian ground movements. I've stopped reading my usual news feeds - too depressing. I can deal with the analytics but not the horror.

Bombardments by air, artillery and ground and air launched cruise missiles continues unabated in multiple cities in Ukraine. Kiev the most recent today. The obvious goal is to sow panic and despair among the Ukrainian populace with what amounts to conventional military terrorism. Hannibal can argue the fine points of what is and what isn't war crimes. The terror tactics, if anything, it has strengthened resistance and citizen resolve if you take Ukrainian news sources at face.

Troop movements involving the major threat axis from the east and toward Kiev remain stalled as a result of a combination of Ukrainian army attacks, poor military logistics planning and low Russian troop morale. This reported from Ukrainian sources, analyzed and vetted to the extent possible by the link I'm following.- TIFWIW. The vetting of Russian troop movements and positions are coming from public access overhead satellite imagery and seem to confirm what is being reported by representatives of the Ukrainian Army General Staff. British intel has stated in the public domain that the Russian Navy has established what they called a "distant naval blockade" of Ukraine's Black Sea Ports. Given the those ports are where something like 25% of the world's grain shipments originate, Putin will use this as leverage as negotiations drag on.

From western news sources, Putin is facing mounting pressure from Russian citizens opposed to the war. What this actually means is unclear. Since he's essentially Stalinized Russia, probably not much. No one knows or even speculates on what Putin's end game is. If the recent uptick in negotiations is getting anywhere, it's possible negotiators are getting a clearer picture of them. If the bombardments continue, the infrastructure damage in the Ukrainian cities getting the brunt of this is going to be destroyed. Ukraine, for the most part, will be a shell of a country compared to what it was before the invasions. Russia under Putin and Russian and Ukrainian citizens that are staying put because they don't have the means to leave will face immense hardship going forward. It's hard to imagine this is making any sense to senior leadership in Moscow. Putin has irrevocably set Russia back as a global partner at least 70 years if not more and ushered in a renewal of the threat of nuclear war. I'm still having a hard time watching NATO sit on the sidelines as, Zelenski in a Zoom call to NATO leadership put it today, being "hypnotized by Putin."

[Dr. Strangelove]

Putin's end game was almost certainly that this would be all wrapped up by now. Zelensky overthrown, killed, or captured and Ukraine forced into a humiliating surrender. Some slug like Yanukovych installed as a puppet.

They used thousands of very green soldiers. Their strategy was shit. They aren't making use of their air power very well. The troops sent in were lied to (in many cases), handed shitty old equipment (probably because Russia's generals steal and embezzle like crazy), and weren't provided sufficient food or fuel. Everything indicates Putin legitimately thought this could be done quickly and with minimal loss. He didn't prepare the Russian public with months of talk about how evil the Ukrainians are or stage a false flag attack probably because he thought it would be over before the public had any chance to get upset. Same goes for the West. It'd all be over faster than the West could implement sanctions.

Now that it's obvious that it WON'T be quick and easy, has he changed his desired end goal? One analyst I read yesterday thinks the principal aim now is to push the front line in the far east to the borders of Donetsk and Luhansk provinces, force Ukraine to recognize Donbas + Crimea as "independent", and destroy as much of Ukraine's industrial and military capabilities as possible before signing a peace deal, as a punishment for resisting their "liberation".

[Dr. Strangelove]

And one more random thought I've seen mentioned is that initially Putin used a lot of paratroopers and even riot police in the invasion's first wave. They all failed pretty miserably. But it suggests the contempt he had for Ukraine in general. He treated this as if he was suppressing a riot or an undisciplined rabble, not a legitimate nation-state's trained armed forces.

[Dr. Strangelove]

[THE_WIZARD_]

Putin' on the Ritz?

[Hannibal]

Putin misjudged this so badly that I'm wondering if he is suffering from the onset of dementia.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Well he has something in common with Chairman Poopypants then...

[Jeff Buchanan]

One analyst I read yesterday thinks the principal aim now is to push the front line in the far east to the borders of Donetsk and Luhansk provinces, force Ukraine to recognize Donbas + Crimea as "independent", and destroy as much of Ukraine's industrial and military capabilities as possible before signing a peace deal, as a punishment for resisting their "liberation"

.

I've seen something similar always followed by the rejoinder we really don't know what's going on inside Putin's head. He has isolated himself to the extent that previously recognized Russian leadership that may have been advising him are no longer doing that having been ridiculed in these public settings he likes televised (e.g., his national security advisors). So we're talking a rogue leader here of a country with nuclear weapons who were unsure of how and where this ends. In a well established, rules based order of diplomacy is highly irregular ..... which according to analysts I've read is exactly what he wants. He's judged in some quarters as a highly intelligent person playing 3D chess with the rest of the world's leaders who have a major stake in the outcome.

[iam416]

IMO, there is no off ramp other than some sort of consequential win. Putin has the will to see that through. It’s a nice reminder that despots aren’t rational nor are they subject to the rules and norms liberal countries voluntarily play by.

It will be a disastrously long endeavor, and may already be that. But, Putin doesn’t want some sort of compromise (IMO).

[Jeff Buchanan]

This is a map of Ukraine depicting Russian military positions as of yesterday at 4pm. It's self explanatory. One thing to point out are the Russian troop deployments in the east and the emphasis on the city of Dnipro. It sits astride the Dnieper or Dnipro rivers which is one of the major rivers of Europe. You'd call controlling this area a strategic objective - and I'm sure it is one of those for the Russian military.

Fits in with DSL's post that the Russians want to control Ukraine east of that river that includes the "independent" regions of Donetsk and Luhansk then extending south and west along Ukraine's boarder with Russia to include the major port of Odessa. Kiev becomes a bargaining chip to wit: we'll leave it alone but we want Donetsk, Luhansk, the entire black sea cost of Ukraine including your port, Odessa and full recognition that Crimea is now part of Russia.

I think it has become quite clear that the cost to Russia of achieving these objectives have been catastrophically high. Putin has left two once vibrant countries with good jobs and a comparatively high standard of living, both fully integrated into the global economy and set to both take off, in a complete, probably unrecoverable, mess. Maybe scuttling successes brought about by western style capitalism in both Ukraine and Russia was a goal of his to begin with and he's recruited Xi in that effort. Well, he's done it

Ukraine.JPG

[Dr. Strangelove]

But worth keeping in mind that Russian "control" over any area in red not in Crimea or the two Separatist "republics" is extremely limited, mainly to roadways and a few key cities.

They started this operation using just under 200,000 men . This estimate from a full week ago believed that they had already lost 8-10% of their total assets (killed, wounded, captured, deserted, stranded, whatever). They cannot possibly conquer and hold the entire country with a force that small. Even if Assad can send them 10,000 (he probably won't) their actual need is in the hundreds of thousands.

(25) US estimates Russian military has lost 8% to 10% of military assets used in invasion of Ukraine, official says (cnn.com)

[Dr. Strangelove]

The Russia watchers I follow on Twitter are saying there were quite a few resignations across Russian state tv today. Including at least a few prominent anchors.