Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Dr. Strangelove]

[Dr. Strangelove]

Anyhoo, WTI is down $15 (12%) today so The Chairman heard your complaints, read your letters, and has responded strongly and forcefully!!! He pushed the MOAR OIL button! One of his secret service agents even came up to him, this great big guy with tears in his eyes and said sir, SIR, I am just so grateful to you, sir, for your tremendously strong actions.

[THE_WIZARD_]

hilarious yet ludicrous

[THE_WIZARD_]

The words Chairman and strong should never be used in the same paragraph...unless you are referring to the strong odor from his Poopypants...

[foxhopper]

John Deere should sponsor that guy.

[Jeff Buchanan]

In Ukraine news today:

• The common thread is that Putin has got himself engaged in an "unwinnable war" in Ukraine. There are a lot of definitions floating around of "winnable" and "unwinnable."
• Basically, the Russian forces presently in Ukraine have the staying power to overwhelm Ukrainian military operations or organized resistance and "seize: Kiev. Define "seize"???
• Russian combat power by US analysts has been reduced by 8%.
• Having 92% of their combat power remaining is significant for two reasons. That is an unstainable loss rate - it's been only 2w. It's still a shit-ton of combat capability.
• Putin is NOT going to let the flood of weapons into Ukraine from NATO and elsewhere being staged in Poland, Romania and Muldova continue. What steps will he take to stop it???

Every military analyst I'm reading say that Putin's invasion is sustainable only if the "costs" are sustainable.

• Sustainable "costs" go beyond Rubles, gold, Yuan or any other things of value being provided by nations that have hooked up their wagons to Putin - all 4 or 5 of them.
• One cost to consider is public opinion both inside and outside Russia. Goes without saying outside Russia Putin is not a leader looked upon with favor. Does he care? Think legacy.
• Putin is not moved by the Russian public protesting, complaining or otherwise shooting him the bird. Nalvany is in prison. Others will follow him to that place.
• Restrictions on access to social media platforms and things like CC transactions, other normal things of a functioning society taken from the average Russian, is problematic.
• Large scale protests may result from that. Putin may not be able to control those. So far he has. Sustainable cost? Soldiers MIA or arriving in coffins? Unknown.

If not moved by public opinion either inside or outside Russia, Putin is moved by the thinking of the oligarchs that support him.

• There are chinks - four biggies: Evgeny Lebedev, Oleg Deripaska, Oleg Tinkov, Mikhail Fridman have all spoken out against the invasion in varying degrees.
• OTH, there are others benefitting from Putin's largess who aren't going to rock the boat. How Putin's support from the oligarchs plays out is unknown.
• They do like access to their money though. It will take time to see they can get around it or how fed up they get if they can't.
• How Putin reacts to dwindling support among the oligarchy is also unknown but it's probably 60/40 he doesn't care about that either.

Economic costs:

• The cost of sanctions to Russian banks is very high. Financiers are forecasting a Russian debt payment default in April.
• The group of 4 or 5 may step in to prevent that. If they don't it's going to weaken Putin.
• Economists estimate that outside Russia, the global economy will contract by 0.17%. The Russian economy? 9.2%

BTW, I'm reading a lot about energy issues. One that is hitting the US is gasoline and other carbon based fuel prices that could hurt the US economy big time.

I read talent's post. I also believe there's tons of oil and gas available, at least as far as I understand it. So, WTF? I get the politics pitting green D's that will compromise the US economy to insist on thier bull-shit and don't care about consumer gas prices v. R's who, IMO, have a much better balanced approach to getting to clean/renewable energy. We're at fucking war, economic so far, but still. Are we making a big enough thing about this D/R divide on energy sourcing? I'm not seeing it.

[iam416]

The thing about energy policy is that it’s not a switch that just turns on a dime. It’s take a lot of time and investment. So, while there may not be a huge divide at this very moment because we are at economic war, that’s almost irrelevant. It doesn’t really change the macro policies that will persist long after the Ukraine debacle resolved itself. And in those policies, there’s a large divide.

[Dr. Strangelove]

The thing about energy policy is that it’s not a switch that just turns on a dime. It’s take a lot of time and investment. So, while there may not be a huge divide at this very moment because we are at economic war, that’s almost irrelevant. It doesn’t really change the macro policies that will persist long after the Ukraine debacle resolved itself. And in those policies, there’s a large divide.

This is exactly right. It's like steering the Titanic.

[iam416]

At $115/b I’m sure fracking fuckers would love to pull energy instantaneously, but unless you’re already operating, that ain’t happening. Further, the current price really incentivizes more costly types of procurement, but you can’t make a business decision on $115/b.

Eh, whatever.

[THE_WIZARD_]

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[Dr. Strangelove]

Saw this yesterday. A mild bit of hope for Liz Cheney. Wyoming declined to cave to Trump and change its primary laws. The new law would have required voters to declare a party months before the primaries and not be allowed to change. As it is, the old practice of same-day party registration will continue.

Don't know how it works in Michigan but that's how it works in Ohio. You show up on primary day and can choose which party's ballot you want right there.

Crossover voting will remain in Wyoming after party affiliation bill dies in Legislature | News | wyomingnews.com

[THE_WIZARD_]

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