Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Mike]

She makes Sarah Palin sound intellectually on par with Thomas Jefferson.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Biden picked her to make himself look a tad more intelligent.

[THE_WIZARD_]

....

[Tom W]

All of that would be funny if these people weren’t actually in charge of this country’s direction- and those around them weren’t making excuses for them or holding them accountable.

But, no, they’re just thrilled that Trump has taken a sabbatical.

[Da Geezer]

As an ExxonMobil stockholder, I KNOW that it cost EM $3 / barrel to extract oil from mature wells. The intentional economic rape at the pump serves only to fatten the share price and increase the dividend, not advance American interests. Even today, the oil companies could sell the product to refiners at $50/bbl and still make scads of money. Production is not the issue, profit is. You want oil prices to plunge? Use price controls for American product. Oil companies will still be fat cats, just not as obese.

Jimmy Carter is still alive. You could let him manage the price controls since he has lots of experience in doing that. To not waste time, he could go directly to the "new" oil and "old" oil distinction to cap the amount paid for oil from "mature" oil (say $ 50/bbl) and yet pay market prices for "new" oil to be brought online (say, $ 120/bbl). What could possibly go wrong (and it surely did)?

I'd like to see any evidence that getting oil from mature wells costs EM $3.00/bbl. Your close relationship with the company should allow you to post where you got that information (from EMs annual report, no doubt). I'd like to read that information for myself.

And, while you are at it, do you figure China is going to pay Russia full market price for Russian O+G? IMO, they will pay Russia what China wants to pay, not the market price.

[Da Geezer]

The US imports 3-4% of its oil consumption from Russia. China has agreed to buy any and all oil Russia wishes to sell it. Taking away US demand for Russian oil does nothing except raise the cost at the pump as supply is reduced while demand remains constant. Its a feel good move to not give Russia dollars and have the ability to point at Biden to say "your actions are raising gas prices". It's intentional partisan hypocrisy to score political points rather than do something that advances US interests. Why are their no sanctions against China for its support of the Butcher of Moscow?

Jon: Gasoline prices were up around 50% since Biden's inauguration. You and other progs are going to blame the oil shortage on Putin and Russia. for your own partisan purposes. The reality is that Biden and his administration have cut US O+G production by a lot, using regulation, EOs, and litigation. They do this because it comports with their religion.

Why don't you mention Canada as a potential place where we can get an additional 3MM/bbl? The cynic in me thinks that Canada cannot be considered because of the vapid leader they have. The Keystone Pipeline was being built in order to bring the "heavy" oil-sand oil to market. Decades ago, The US committed to buying Venezuelan heavy oil. Many refineries were built on the Gulf coast to process this kind of oil. Then the progressives took over Venezuela and destroyed the ability to make oil. The reason Keystone got as far as it did is because Canada is a safe supplier of oil and because we already have the refining capacity to process their oil. But mentioning Canada as a source of additional oil would tacitly mean you favor Keystone, which is a bridge too far for Dem partisans.

[Obi-Jon]

If you'd like me to start referring to you as a neo-nazi, continue to refer to me as a prog. Equal accuracy in labels.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I post this reluctantly after in multiple phone calls with foreign leaders Putin has repeatedly denied targeting civilians. He also said he will reach his goals by fighting or by negotiation - I assume this means his goals to be eliminating the Zelenski government and installing his own with Ukraine becoming a Russian administered state much like Belarus.

Given what I'm reading today, NATO has no stomach for risking a military engagement between nuclear powers by provoking Putin. I don't think the sanctions will cause Putin to change his goals. He will hang on and continue the killing. He could care less that the Russian people will suffer greatly as prices rise and basic good get hard to find. He could care less about the loss of Russian soldiers and equipment. The man is devoid of humanity.

If leadership's stomachs are not turned by scenes like this and the 100s of other pictures of the targeting of urban areas of no military significance, the hell on earth it's brining to innocent Ukrainians, I don't know what to say. Putin is doing nothing but terrorizing Ukrainian citizens to create enough leverage for humans with a conscious to give in and give up. IMO, this is the commission of the most heinous acts at the barrel of a gun in history both in terms of intent and outcomes. What makes it so is that it is video'ed, televised and photographed then published. None of this is being hidden from the word's eyes and scrutiny, yet Putin carries on with the killing - how can this go unchallenged by force on force. I hesitate to declare this worse than the holocaust or Pol Pots Cambodian genocide but it's close. It's worse than the ethnic cleansing that went on in Bosnia by a ways.

I don't have any idea how you stop Putin from the barbarism without a full scale NATO air, ground and sea operation to end it. The risk of a nuclear exchange be damned. Anyone?

Dead.JPG

[Mike]

I’m in.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Yes price controls work sooooo well...

[Da Geezer]

I'm not in. At least not yet

[Obi-Jon]

NATO has (finally!)) approved the transfer of aircraft to Ukraine. Reality is the US has been holding up the xfer in fear of 'escalation'. Poles have green lighted sending some of their MIGs to Ukraine in exchange for some F-16s in the US inventory. HOWEVER, Taiwan is already been slated to receive those F-16s. Now the fiddle farting continues. The Wall Street Journal has a paywalled update - Jeff, you have a subscription?

[Obi-Jon]

Interview with a Moscow protester.

https://www.npr.org/2022/03/04/1084627201/one-russian-anti-war-protester-on-why-shes-risking-arrest-to-speak-out

[Mike]

NATO has (finally!)) approved the transfer of aircraft to Ukraine. Reality is the US has been holding up the xfer in fear of 'escalation'. Poles have green lighted sending some of their MIGs to Ukraine in exchange for some F-16s in the US inventory. HOWEVER, Taiwan is already been slated to receive those F-16s. Now the fiddle farting continues. The Wall Street Journal has a paywalled update - Jeff, you have a subscription?

I saw Blinkin’ Blinken on MTP this morning and that sounded like the plan. No mention of the Taiwan angle, tho. I’m sure we can scrounge up a few more for them.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Jeff, you have a subscription?

No, I cancelled it about 6m ago and it took me an hour on the phone to do it. Never again. Market Watch is tied in with the WSJ. I looked at trying to sign up for that but when I realized you had to call the WSJ to cancel - and I would have at some future point - that ended that.

I've been all for the transfer of Mig-29s from Poland. These, however, are air-superiority fighters. I don't think they are equipped for a ground attack role. I do think they would be invaluable in securing airspace on a rotating basis. What that means is that you can't defend a country wide no-fly zone but you can defend carve outs and deny entry (meaning you engage and shoot down Russian attack aircraft (SU 34s) and helos (Hinds). It's these fuckers that are doing a lot of damage lobbing 1000lb non-precision guided bombs, rockets (helos) and cluster munitions onto civilian targets to create chaos, panic and low morale. Truth be known, it's said the Russians don't have a lot of aircraft launched PG ordnance or missiles and the one's they have, pilots reportedly don't know how to employ them.

Bulgaria has SU-25 Frog Foot, ground attack aircraft the same as those operated in the Ukrainian Airforce. A bunch of these would be very useful in wreaking havoc on Russian supply lines as exposed as they are.

We should know that this is tricky business. The first thing is that you need to provide to the Ukrainians the full capability to maintain and support whatever shows up at Ukrainian airfields - and are there any that are serviceable inside Ukraine? The Frog Foot has the capability to launch from the most rudimentarily prepared surfaces so, there is that. Mig-29s, no way. So, logistical support, including ordnance, spare parts and what is called intermediate level maintenance (IMA) vans that fix busted engines, avionics and hydraulic pumps that are pulled out of an airframe by squadron level maintainers and sent to IMA for repair has be part of the deal. The whole thing of getting airframes to Ukraine is a much bigger deal that meets the eye.

The second thing is that Putin is going to claim that Poland and Bulgaria, if they go ahead and supply Mig-29s and SU 25s to Ukraine, are engaging in combat operations and are now considered combatants. I'm actually fine with this because, quite frankly, the air war is on in this case and NATO will crush what I think I know is currently operating out of the boarder airfields of Russia and Belarus. The ball-less twatwaffles who are fearful of enraging Putin are going to see this a lot differently than I do. I'm going to assume that NATO has prepared for and trained for an eventuality that is emerging or very close to it. I don't know the numbers and readiness status right now but in the 80s when I trained with the NATO staff and flew aircraft in exercises in central Europe, the capabilities were beyond impressive and training levels high. They've probably atrophied but still .....

Look, I don't want a nuclear exchange. An air war would be a step in that direction but, damn, I've already said Putin isn't going to be stopped with sanctions. He has to be defeated in the air and on the ground in Ukraine. As an air war unfolds with NATO having success, there's a very good possibility that in order to secure key ground in Ukraine, e.g. power generating, energy distribution points and ports - things Putin is cleverly trying to secure, boots on the ground and naval forces (Marines) are going to have to be committed to do that.

As I write this, I can see the pathway to an all out war in Europe that could be catastrophic. Given that, I can see the reluctance of legislatures that have to approve the transfer of aircraft to Ukraine believing that would amount to a match that lights the fire of at least a conventional war in Europe v. Russia and potentially a nuclear exchange. But look at the alternative of doing nothing. Are we going to sit by and let Putin slaughter Ukrainians with a siege that he is totally committed to? You hope that in the event Putin goes for Poland and Bulgaria, that NATO is preparing for now (and I think they are) and would launch a devastating counter punch to such an attack. If it is successful as I believe that counter punch would be, with the phone lines still open to Moscow and dialogue continuing, Putin decides he'll settle for a negotiated settlement in Ukraine instead of initiating nuclear attacks that could result in the end of the planet.

Tough situation and tough choices coming this week. It's easy for me to sit here and write about it. Quite another for NATO leaders and the leaders of Non-NATO countries that have a say in this to commit to the potential of igniting a European conflagration in the name of freedom and democracy.