Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[THE_WIZARD_]

Well we can thank a Democrat for the UN...thank you Woody Wilson...

[lineygoblue]

The Russo-Ukrainian war is the perfect opportunity for the US to exit the UN and rid NYC of that nest of spies. It’s feckless response to the conflict reinforces it’s reputation of irrelevancy. 39 nations abstained or overtly support Russia’s unprovoked aggression. Fuck the UN.

Its probably time for another resolution condemning Israel's unlawful occupation of "palestine". That seems to trot out the support of the mental simpletons that make up the UN's membership.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Today Russia passed new laws making it a felony, punishable by up to 15 years in prison, if you:

1) Spread "fake news" about the "special military operation". Fake news has been already been defined as anything that's not an official govt press release

2) Bring "discredit" to the armed forces. Conceivably this could apply even to soldiers who complain about conditions, or being tricked, or rotten food, or being abandoned, or virtually anything.

3) Express support for foreign sanctions. This is aimed at people like Navalny who has cheered the sanctions on oligarchs. I thought that Putin would use the war to quietly have Navalny killed in prison but now it looks more likely they just keep inventing new crimes to retroactively add to his list of charges. Either way he will likely die in prison.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Well CNN is up shit creek in Moscow then...the kings of fake news...

[Jeff Buchanan]

Its a foregone conclusion that Putin is going to get what he wants in Ukraine. It is just a matter of time. I don't doubt and won't denigrate the resolve of the Zelenski government to continue the fight but as long as it does, critical infrastructure in Ukraine will continue to be destroyed by Russian artillery, cruise missiles and air attacks. Putin doesn't care about the human suffering or what gets destroyed, he will continue to indiscriminately target civilians and destroy Ukrainian infrastructure until Zelenski surrenders and probably unconditionally.

I get NATO's position on not sending NATO combat units into Ukraine. While it's too late now, the arguing over how important Ukraine was to EU and US interests overtook the need to stop Putin, force on force once he invaded. We thought sanctions would be enough. Not enough, obviously. NATO failed to see the importance of the macro interests that a full invasion and occupation of Ukraine by Putin would imply ...... I'll take what I want and the West is to weak too stop me. Next stop for Putin the former Soviet boarder states on NATO's eastern flank. Guaranteed. So, we'll get the war in Europe we didn't want over Ukraine anyway, it will just be delayed for a fight over protecting the former Soviet satellite states now free while Putin refortifies his forces for his next move. The west can render that move harder for Putin to undertake and probably prevent it entirely. Here's how:

My position is the best thing to do at this point to prevent the complete destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure and the killing of thousands more along with untold suffering and hardship on Ukrainians who managed to survive and stay in the country is to manage some kind of face saving off ramp for Zelenski that then precludes a continuation of the Russian bombardment. Let the Russians roll in and figure out how to set up a government in Ukraine. Then the west starts planning a sort of Phase II operation.

DO NOT remove the current sanctions. DO NOT lessen the information war or let down our guard on preventing Russian cyber-activity to threaten key functions in the EU or globally outside of Russia. DO infiltrate Russia with the human means to promote and rally dissent as the Russian economy collapses under the weight of sanctions and Russian citizens see themselves trapped in a Stalinesque gulag. Do covertly aid a Ukrainian government in exile to form a Ukrainian underground and make it hard for the Russians to govern Ukraine This is going to take time and we should now be looking at the long game of destabilizing Putin's Russia that now includes Ukraine. Arm and position large scale forces within NATO to let Putin know if he comes across NATO boarders he will get a war he can't win and will destroy Russia.

It is possible that a nuclear exchange could happen during Phase II. Arms control negotiations should start immediately and concurrently with negotiations to end the fighting in Ukraine. Russia would not likely refuse as their survival interests are at stake and a schedule to remove sanctions are the carrot to get them to the negotiating table. A framework already exists for that. It just needs to be revitalized. At the same time, but separately, negotiations among the economic elite need to begin to look carefully at similar arms control measures on the economic warfare that can be and already has been unleashed on Russia. What the west has done to Russia is going to take a toll if not leading to it's collapse. Russia should be interested in engaging in such negotiations. The world should be interested in controlling outcomes like that and insuring through as yet to be determined mechanisms that can put limits to it.

[Obi-Jon]

One TV European talking head believes Russia's intent is to make the Ukrainian urban areas uninhabitable. Destroy everything that isn't peasants. Create a 25 million refugee problem for the west. Move forces into Ukraine as a launching point into other nations - retaliatory strikes would be directed into Ukraine only. Russia does not want regime change, only a wasteland on its border. Doesn't matter how long it takes or what the cost, the end result is all that matters. Putin is in Hitler mode - start and win a world war or commit (nuclear) suicide trying. Only a military coup can stop Putin

Rather pessimistic POV.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Time to sanction an assassination of Putin...

[Obi-Jon]

Why Russia is paranoid. Some background not from the current US point of view. From The American Thinker:


https://www.americanthinker.com/arti...d_war_iii.html

[Da Geezer]

It's a foregone conclusion that Putin is going to get what he wants in Ukraine. It is just a matter of time. I don't doubt and won't denigrate the resolve of the Zelenski government to continue the fight but as long as it does, critical infrastructure in Ukraine will continue to be destroyed by Russian artillery, cruise missiles, and air attacks. Putin doesn't care about the human suffering or what gets destroyed, he will continue to indiscriminately target civilians and destroy Ukrainian infrastructure until Zelenski surrenders and probably unconditionally.

I get NATO's position on not sending NATO combat units into Ukraine. While it's too late now, the arguing over how important Ukraine was to EU and US interests overtook the need to stop Putin, force on force once he invaded. We thought sanctions would be enough. Not enough, obviously. NATO failed to see the importance of the macro interests that a full invasion and occupation of Ukraine by Putin would imply ...... I'll take what I want and the West is to weak too stop me. Next stop for Putin the former Soviet boarder states on NATO's eastern flank. Guaranteed. So, we'll get the war in Europe we didn't want over Ukraine anyway, it will just be delayed for a fight over protecting the former Soviet satellite states now free while Putin refortifies his forces for his next move. The west can render that move harder for Putin to undertake and probably prevent it entirely. Here's how:

My position is the best thing to do at this point to prevent the complete destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure and the killing of thousands more along with untold suffering and hardship on Ukrainians who managed to survive and stay in the country is to manage some kind of face saving off-ramp for Zelenski that then precludes a continuation of the Russian bombardment. Let the Russians roll in and figure out how to set up a government in Ukraine. Then the west starts planning a sort of Phase II operation.

DO NOT remove the current sanctions. DO NOT lessen the information war or let down our guard on preventing Russian cyber-activity to threaten key functions in the EU or globally outside of Russia. DO infiltrate Russia with the human means to promote and rally dissent as the Russian economy collapses under the weight of sanctions and Russian citizens see themselves trapped in a Stalinesque gulag. Do covertly aid a Ukrainian government in exile to form a Ukrainian underground and make it hard for the Russians to govern Ukraine This is going to take time and we should now be looking at the long game of destabilizing Putin's Russia that now includes Ukraine. Arm and position large scale forces within NATO to let Putin know if he comes across NATO boarders he will get a war he can't win and will destroy Russia.

It is possible that a nuclear exchange could happen during Phase II. Arms control negotiations should start immediately and concurrently with negotiations to end the fighting in Ukraine. Russia would not likely refuse as their survival interests are at stake and a schedule to remove sanctions are the carrot to get them to the negotiating table. A framework already exists for that. It just needs to be revitalized. At the same time, but separately, negotiations among the economic elite need to begin to look carefully at similar arms control measures on the economic warfare that can be and already has been unleashed on Russia. What the west has done to Russia is going to take a toll if not leading to it's collapse. Russia should be interested in engaging in such negotiations. The world should be interested in controlling outcomes like that and insuring through as yet to be determined mechanisms that can put limits to it.

Good post Jeff. More of us should post ideas and let others criticize. Criticizing is ten times easier than taking the risk of proposing something. With that in mind, I'll take the easier route.

1. "It is possible that a nuclear exchange could happen during Phase II" Well, yes. I wrote an article for my college newspaper over 50 years ago titled "If Nuclear War is Unlikely, then It Is Inevitable". Mathematically that's true. If that is the final end-game, we should say so. Seems to me that anything proposed after a nuclear exchange is irrelevant.

2. Arms control negotiations should start immediately and concurrently with negotiations to end the fighting in Ukraine. Reagan offered the Soviet Union the zero option in Iceland and the Soviets rejected the proposal. Russia today is Ukraine with nuclear weapons. Ukraine gave up its nukes in 1994 in exchange for "security guarantees". How does that decision look now and would the Russians do that? Never. Parenthetically, why does the Bucharest Treaty not bind the US to protect Ukraine now?

__________________________________________________ __________

A couple of thoughts for you to criticise:

We should clearly state that eliminating Putin and his kleptocrats from their rule in Russia is what we consider victory. This should not be couched as NATO-US vs. Russia-China. This gives the Russians an off-ramp for the Ukraine war if they overthrow Putin.

To this end, we should sanction Russian oil and gas immediately. We should also threaten sanctions against any country that helps Russia evade the sanctions on oil and gas. This means Eliminating Russia from SWIFT and threatening to eliminate China from SWIFT if they ally with Russia. Short of nuclear war, that seems to me to be the most likely way to have a change of government in Russia. It allows the West to maximize its use of our most powerful weapon, our economies.

How China acts is critical to all this. Both Russia and China want to overthrow the Pax Americana. Russia has chosen to become a pariah to the vast majority of the world. I don't think China would make that choice. I'd rather take the risk that China tries to take over as the worlds reserve currency than the risk that a cornered Putin says WTF and blows the world to hell

[THE_WIZARD_]

You know...even as dumb as all you twatwaffles are here...you are more qualified than Heels Up Harris at foreign policy...

...not that it means much...

[Dr. Strangelove]

I saw a video purporting to be from a battle overnight in Hostomel, near that airport north of Kyiv where a bunch of battles have already been fought. The Russians were reportedly decimated. It's probably the most graphic video I've seen yet so I'm not going to post it. Corpses everywhere, some hanging off the sides of burned out tanks. First two bodies you see are extremely burned but what struck me most is how small they looked. I'd be amazed if they aren't teenage conscripts. I can't believe they are still sending kids barely out of high school off to get killed this way.

And a couple odds and ends...Russia has banned Facebook and many think YouTube is next. Also they are keeping their stock market closed to AT LEAST next Wednesday.

[Tom W]

You know...even as dumb as all you twatwaffles are here...you are more qualified than Heels Up Harris at foreign policy...

...not that it means much...

Regardless of whether or not Putin ends up winner take all in Ukraine, it's pretty clear that Brandon and Giggles will end up looking like big time losers.

No surprise there- did anybody have any confidence that these characters would have been able to handle an international crisis of this magnitude? It's kinda like nobody had any confidence that Trump would be able to handle COVID- except, well, these guys aren't going to get broiled by the MSM for their specific ineptitude.

Just wait for them to start advancing the narrative that this was a Trump-based plot to sabotage the midterms.

[AlabamAlum]

I don’t think Putin is really considering Nukes unless we remove him from Ukraine. I think he thought this would just be as easy as Crimea part deux - and it’s been a stickier wicket than he imagine, but he can’t back down without some kind of “victory”.

[Jeff Buchanan]

We should clearly state that eliminating Putin and his kleptocrats from their rule in Russia is what we consider victory.

I agree with this. We need to start thinking in a forward looking manner. What the West let Putin do and continues to do, as stupid as it was to not invest in putting a stop to it right out of the gate, we're past the point of worrying about it.

With sanctions in place and Russia now holding or will soon hold Ukraine's entire black sea coast the level of global supply interruptions is about to go critical. We're not seeing or feeling it yet. But Russia and Ukraine pre-invasion were major exporters of multiple key resources of oil, grains, plastics and key industrial metals. The sanctions are going to severely squeeze shipping of these commodities and products. Multiple businesses abandoning both Ukraine and Russia will worsen the squeeze. There isn't enough production elsewhere to off-set the losses of this stuff and parts of the global economy are going to crater and significant food shortages in poor countries will surface.

The quicker Putin is removed from power in Russia, the quicker global supply can be restored and the quicker the threat of nuclear Armageddon is removed. We can leverage Putin with sanctions but it's not yet clear how much leverage is being gained and at what economic coasts outside of Russia and on the West. You can bet Putin is calculating that equation. That's not to say we should not be negotiating on all fronts but behind the scenes, with negotiations as cover, every effort needs to be undertaken with the primary goal of removing Putin. I cannot imagine that among Russia's elite there is not concern about the pathway that Putin is taking Russia and by extension the entire world. Getting the word out to the Russian people through things like the BBC's short-wave broadcasts along with a concerted effort to do the same through social media platforms (public access quickly being removed) and all means available has to be a priority objective.

It's worth noting that this may be the most difficult war time undertaking ever attempted. In 2016, Putin starting organizing the Russian National Guard - Rosgvardiya. He is in charge of it and it's commanders report directly to Putin. Early on in the pre-invasion time frame, Rosgvardiya units were seen assembling close to the Russian-Ukrainian boarder and began moving into Ukraine and spreading out to ostensibly perform security operations at key Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. Although this didn't come from news sources and I'm assuming this, the video and accompanying reports that Russian officers had presented themselves to Ukrainian officials in the cities where the Russian army had asserted control, instructing those officials that Russia was now in control but to continue to work (most walked out). These were probably Rosgvardiya commanders.

Rosgvardiya is estimated to be 340,000 strong and one of it's unstated missions is to protect Putin from subversion from within the Russian population and especially among elites who might try to engineer a coup de tat. Without neutralizing the Rosgvardiya's capabilities to protect Putin, it would be hard for insiders to get rid of him. The west can help do that by identifying key commanders and convincing them to turn on Putin. That may be possible given the current targets of present and future sanctions. Take away the luxuries that typical security commanders enjoy for their service and loyalty is likely to dissipate.

[THE_WIZARD_]

"Ukraine is a country in Europe. It exists next to another country called Russia. Russia is a bigger country. Russia decided to invade a smaller country called Ukraine, so basically that’s wrong."

Kamala Harris