Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Jeff Buchanan]

..... an article just release in the NYTs parallels what I just said and adds that it's all bluster until US intelligence sources verify that Russian bombers and submarines are being loaded out with nuclear weapons. The author thought, that as I do, we're a long way from that happening. Nevertheless the tone of the NYTs article was a lot more cautionary than my post was intended to allay fears of a nuclear WWII and was so because former director of the CIA, Jake Clapper, was quoted as saying he thinks Putin has lost connection with reality, "he's become unhinged," Clapper thought."

The US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and his Russian counterpart, General Gerasimov have recently been in touch with each other over on-going talks about figuring out how to continue or renew arms control accords that will expire in 4y. The talks have reflected, according to people who are involved in them, representative of two intelligent and thoughtful men working to find ways to reduce nuclear tensions. Russian TV broadcast Putin's announcement that he was putting his nuclear arsenal on a higher alert status. Gerasimov's reaction was carefully analyzed. He was stone faced, potentially shocked. Would he actually carry out Putin's order if they went beyond "plugging the wires back in?" The tell is going to be watching whether Russian bombers get rolled out and along with subs get loaded with nukes and then the subs set sail from port. If that happens then Putin's threat is more than bluster.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Putin has apparently decided that the stock market can’t crash if you forbid the market from opening.

Russia’s central bank has also raised interest rates to 20%. Yep, 20%

[Obi-Jon]

Checking right now, the ruble has plunged again, 100 rubles to the dollar as of 7:55 am EST.

[iam416]

Froot, amazingly, was correct in that this is going poorly for Putin AND there is no viable off-ramp for him. He's in for a penny, in for a pound and that's concerning.

[iam416]

Also, the Democractic Socialists of America released a statement blaming the Ukraine situation on American imperialism and expansionism and calling for an immediate US withdrawal from NATO. There was a time when I wouldn't give two shits what DSA says, but they now have elected members of Congress that self-identify as DSA, so...

[Cody_Russell]

If my AP European History recollection from high school is correct, hopefully this ass beating leads to a Nicolas II 2.0 situation in Russia. I believe Czar Nicolas II tried to invade Japan in the early 1900s and was destroyed. Have less faith that it can happen in modern day, but their people have to be angry about the invasion + economic situation.

…

Not sure if someone posted this here, but thought this was sadly hilarious. Saw it on John Oliver’s show last night:

[Dr. Strangelove]

Seems like the Russians have started to indiscriminately bomb/shell Kharkiv today. And that was supposedly one of the most pro-Russian big cities in Ukraine.

[froot loops]

Froot, amazingly, was correct in that this is going poorly for Putin AND there is no viable off-ramp for him. He's in for a penny, in for a pound and that's concerning.

In my opinion Putin's biggest problem is he is operating under a Soviet Cold War mindset. Back in the Warsaw Pact days the Soviets could get away with shit like this because their economy and the satellite states were basically cut off from the rest of the world. Sanctions didn't affect very much. That isn't the case now. Part of the argument for globalism, is the interconnected economies put massive pressure on countries not to do shit like this. But the argument has an implication that the leader understands these pressures and clearly Putin didn't.

[Jeff Buchanan]

As I posted up thread, a siege by the Russian military is going to include this kind of indiscriminate shelling that DSL posts about above. It will continue in the cities that Russia has targeted until the government of Ukraine surrenders. If it is allowed to continue, these cities will be reduced to piles of rubble. Casualties will be horrendous. At this point the outcome is baked in unless NATO stops it militarily. Putin has nothing to lose and the fucker is a survivor, sanctions be damned.

The Russians, also as I've posted previously, have already done this and appear to be focusing on prepositioning infantry and supplies putting them in attack positions. What looks like a lull with the Ukrainians prevailing on the ground isn't the forthcoming reality. If Zelenski doesn't unconditionally surrender during the bombardment phase of the military operation, Russian infantry and tank forces will go in to seize ground inside the cities. If this goes on long enough that won't be hard because occupying piles of dust in abandoned cities isn't hard.

Look, if the West wants to put an end to this, it is going to have to engage the Russians in the air and on the ground and force them to abandon the campaign which I think has much wider goals that just taking Ukraine. I don't think that sending arms to the Ukrainian military is going to be sufficient for the costs to Putin to be high enough for him to quit. NATO seems committed to preserving Ukraine's democratic government if this weekend's activities are an indication of that commitment. Peace talks are a sham and designed to keep NATO from taking the steps I think they need to start taking now.,

That NATO member embassies are being outright abandoned or severely reduced in staff in and around Ukraine and Russia, suggests at higher planning levels preparations are being made to at the least least defend former Soviet Satellite states should Putin actually have wider goals in mind. If I'm in a planning cell, a static defense of those countries isn't a good place to start. You better go on the offense (the best defense) and kick the shit out of Putin's objective of seizing Ukraine, amassing more military capability there and moving West.

I'm not confident the NATO capability is in place yet but the resources could be put there on very short notice, After all, prior to the collapse of the Soviet Union NATO planners focused on just such a fight like the one currently on going. The battle space then was west of the Balkans and mostly in Germany. Now it's further east in Ukraine - dust off the OPLANS.

Their have been signs that planners are thinking about implementing a no-fly zone over Ukraine. It is a relatively small airspace, probably not well defended in an integrated air defense system (ground based and air based) sort of way at this early point by the Russians. This approach would still require overwhelming air superiority to do it. Once that's established, aircraft can just unload air delivered conventional ordnance on Russian forces currently completely out in the open and in unfamiliar territory. It's a start and I'd opine we are on the precipice of Hybrid WWIII.

[Hannibal]

Froot, amazingly, was correct in that this is going poorly for Putin AND there is no viable off-ramp for him. He's in for a penny, in for a pound and that's concerning.

The best off ramp is for him to be forcibly evicted from his meat suit by his own people.

[iam416]

That's correct. And it might be the only off ramp for Russia.

[froot loops]

I think everybody thinks that but dictators are very good staying in power. It's not a very viable strategy to hope the people rise up and send him packing. There needs to be some other type of off ramp available, but I couldn't tell you what it is.

I don't know any specific knowledge of the internal dynamics but the general thought is that his power emanates from the oligarchs. The logic goes that if he pisses off enough oligarchs he is in trouble.

[iam416]

I'm not saying it's a great option or even a viable one, but I do think it may be the only one. And I would consider the "oligarchs" his "own people" for purposes of this discussion.

[Obi-Jon]

I think only the generals could do anything internally. If history is any lesson, it takes muscle more than money to depose a dictator. And yeah, I agree, the oligarchs are "his people".

[Jeff Buchanan]

I think everybody thinks that but dictators are very good staying in power. It's not a very viable strategy to hope the people rise up and send him packing. There needs to be some other type of off ramp available, but I couldn't tell you what it is.

I don't know any specific knowledge of the internal dynamics but the general thought is that his power emanates from the oligarchs. The logic goes that if he pisses off enough oligarchs he is in trouble.

If you look at the Russian state's history under Putin's rule and regarding this "Arab Spring" sort of bull-shit, hoping that protests, even large ones of placard carrying citizens, might bring Putin down, they won't. Putin has made it clear he'll exterminate his challengers. Neither will the entire world, with the feckless UN mouthing off about as we speak, condemning his invasion .... especially not at this point. He's staked out a position and he is not the type to vary from it. Not now.

My view is you present Putin with a credible challenge, backed up by the positioning of military resources, that NATO will stop the Russian invasion of Ukraine if he doesn't stand down.