Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Obi-Jon]

Also seeing net traffic reports that Russia is indeed trying to cut off access to pretty much all social media right now (inside Russia I mean). Need to use a VPN or it's next to impossible.

Stuff is still getting out. Just saw a cellphone video of women protesters being hauled away by masked police in St Petersburg.

[Jeff Buchanan]

On the Turkey blocking transit of Russian ships through the Dardanelles ...... I agree with you DSL, no confirmation of this but what it says to me is that outside of Russia the good guys are controlling the messaging. You are also right that the Bosporus is a key territory in maintaining control of the world's sea lanes - one of the US's strategic goals that China, most notably, is challenging ...... wake up call.

TBF, US Naval posture remains pretty impressive. There's been a focus over the last decade on technological advances replacing numbers. You can see this throughout US forces. OTH the Chinese and the Russians, albeit they have their technology advances too, still rely on overwhelming numbers - what's emerging in Ukraine is demonstrative of that for the Russians. On the other side though is the impact of hi-tech weapons that have been supplied to the Ukrainians - and it looks like in large numbers - is having on the Russians relying on the cumbersome and logistically difficult movement of armor and the required troops to properly support those tactics. If it turns out that the Ukrainian military had advance intell from the West that aided them in developing a disruptive sort of approach and then focusing on it - that is to say you position your forces to attack key components of the Russian invasion force with independently operating small units (assuming Command and Control is going to be unavailable) and let those units wreak havoc on movement and supply lines - it might be working.

Let's look back at Desert Storm strategy. Schwarzkopf relied on the lightly armored Marine MAGTF (Marine Air-ground Task Force) at the head of the spear. Highly mobile, sophisticated and highly lethal, the main "ground" attack elements were attack hellos augmented by USAF similarly equipped aviation assets. Marine, Navy and USAF aviation assets overwhelmed Iraqi air defenses and quick control of the airspace over head was quickly attained.

Iraq had established defensive positions with Soviet era armor - lots of it. You saw the pictures of what happened to that armor and the Iraqi soldiers that tried to flee. Following that was Army and Marine infantry components - Marines lightly armed and covering the flanks of the more heavily armed Army forces. It was a cake walk to Bagdad and you saw American flag waving US Army tank commanders driving them up to the steps of Saddam's Palace within 4d of the thrust that started in and from Kuwait. The sight of Bagdad Bob announcing everything is under control here when behind him were US Special forces units seizing key roadways was a laugher.

Putin had hoped for that sort of thing. Not happening. The specter of bungled logistics appear to be real. Air superiority - an absolute necessity for the kind of ops the Russians were hoping for - not happening. Not surprisingly, well trained Ukrainian air defense units armed with Stingers and Strella weapons and who knows what else - and I suspect there is some of that - are bagging exposed aircraft in fairly large numbers if reports are to be trusted (??? IL72). If that report of the IL72 downing is true that reflects a huge blunder by Russian air unit commanders for trying to fly that kind of aircraft into uncontrolled airfields and airspace.

I'm sure the news coming from Russian state media is full of pictures of victorious Russian forces in Ukraine. So, my read is probably biased compared to what Russian citizens are being exposed to. But, it appears to me that the good guys are controlling the messaging and that is hugely important in any armed conflict these days. It also appears that this disruptive sort of tactic being employed by the Ukrainians is having a negative affect on a Russian lightning strike that intended to seize Kiev and decapitate Ukrainian leadership by killing Zelenski and others who might pose a threat of organized resistance to a Russian occupation.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Came across a tweet by a BBC reporter that's on the ground in Kiev that says in his travels he's seeing scores of Russian corpses scattered around destroyed APCs and tanks and has come across uniformed Ukrainian soldiers escorting about a dozen uniformed poisoners that he was pretty sure were Russians soldiers who had surrendered. He noted none of them looked over 20, were dazed and some crying. He asked one if he had a message for his family, the young soldier said tell them I love them.

In the 80s when I was tied into this stuff, one of the notable weaknesses of the Russian military services was that they were poorly trained and undisciplined - that was more true of the Russian Army and Navy, less true of airforce personnel. Of course all those guys probably aren't in the service of Mother Russia these days. Still, you can't change the tiger's stripes. One might think, and I did when I was uniformed but played none of that game, was they way to get ahead was to kiss ass and keep your head low. Those that did that tended to be really shitty leaders in my experience.

They make good staff officers but they suck leading men in combat because they sucked at it themselves, infantrymen or pilots. I suspect that remains an issue for Russian officers leading the Russian incursion into Ukraine and what the BBC reporter notes is probably a reflection of that. I think Mike posted something similar a few days ago. Is this in anyway meaningful with regard to the outcome? Probably not. It is just sad. War is sad and that Putin started an unnecessary one has gotten me more angry about world affairs - the ones I have zero control over - than I think I have been both inside and outside military service in my adult life time.

I'm hoping this ends soon and the world brings so much scorn along with meaningful pressure on Putin that he designs a face saving withdrawal from the horrible humanitarian suffering he has brought to this part of the world.

[Obi-Jon]

Putin can do what was done in Afghanistan by the USSR he so desperately wants to emulate - declare victory and withdraw. Then throw a victory parade in Moscow telling his citizens war is peace, freedom is slavery, ignorance is strength. Worked well the last time around.


The BBC interviewed families that are arming themselves against the Russians. Check this picture out - a run of the mill 12 gauge and an old Mauser C96 'broomhandle'. That pistol has a 20 rd mag and fires in full auto at 16 rds/sec. Looks in great shape. Hope he has the detachable rifle stock for control. Today's collector market prices it north of 3 grand.


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[Dr. Strangelove]

[Jeff Buchanan]

NYT just published a piece depicting how shocked Russian Moskovites are over what they are seeing on available media platforms. While stae controlled media run scenes of a busteling and calm Kiev in mid July these are belied by live footage of a city that is a battlefield of destroyed military equipment and bombed out apartment buildings.

Despite Putin's best effotrs to conceal what he has undertaken from Russian citizens that's failing badly. Key figures inside Russia are starting to speak out risking their lives doing so.

Most importantly average Russians are seeing store prices rise 30% and more mostly due to crippling supply problems some the result of sanctions on businesses who won't sell Russian retailers and grocers product. A major electronics retailer in Moscow announced they're raising prices due to enexpected supply problems.

All good.

[Dr. Strangelove]

The EU has reportedly closed its entire airspace to Russian flights and airlines. The Speaker of one House of the Duma had his flight ordered to leave Swedish and Finnish airspace early today too.

[Jeff Buchanan]

This is a pretty amazing News Week article that was released this morning. It's like, holy shit, Russian GRU agents have infiltrated the News Week news room. It's clearly dated as verified reports and images of ongoing activities inside Ukraine would seem to make the premise that Putin is going to win his war a bit premature. He might in the long run and will almost certainly engineer a face saving withdrawal strategy should sanctions and the bravery and heroism of the Ukrainian soldiers and civilians force that outcome while the Zelenski government survives.

https://www.newsweek.com/2022/03/11/putin-has-never-lost-war-here-how-hell-win-ukraine-1682878.html

[Dr. Strangelove]

On Monday morning will there be a run on Russian banks? Oof

[Dr. Strangelove]

[Jeff Buchanan]

A top European Union official, Ursula von der Leyen, said in a statement that she would propose removing a number of Russian banks from the SWIFT global payments system, freezing Russian Central Bank transactions and prohibiting the bank from liquidating assets. The European Commission said the E.U., the U.S. and Canada would create a “transatlantic task force” to identify oligarchs’ and their families’ assets and make sure they can’t access them.

Given that I don't know details of how the SWIFT works - other than what I've read about it - selective removal seems to allow escalation. Putin isn't flamingly unaware of consequences like former PDJT often seemed to be (fraudulent election charges escapades) and I believe Biden is (Afghanistan, huge pandemic and infrastructure spending).

Putin is a decent chess player in this global game. I don't play the game so I'd have difficulty with an analogy here but it seems he's getting outmaneuvered on the surface. OTH, I suspect he has carefully planned on how to react to the various sanctions western nations can impose. He's said in the past, removal of Russian banks and businesses from access to SWIFT would be tantamount to an act of war. There's been hints from various corners of governments involved in this that we should expect retaliatory cyber-attacks. In light of how deeply it appears US intelligence sources seemed to be into Russian's military planning and movements pre actual invasion, I'd tend to trust these warnings.

Putin is gonna do stuff as we squeeze him and his cronies over Russia's attempt, so far prevented, to oust Zelenski. I don't have a problem with "paying the price" in economic terms. There's a good chance that Putin's inner circle of trusted people will start talking him down. What does concern me is if he pulls something completely unexpected by the public at large like launch an ICBM with a conventional but threatened nuclear war head targeting Soul SK but then, in it's terminal phase, directed into the nearby ocean. Global panic. It's a very real show of force and one that Putin has already threatened. That would be some scary shit. I have no doubt the US is preparing for that possibility.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Take it fwiw

[Dr. Strangelove]

If it's true that even China is choosing to preserve its own economy rather than "stand with Putin"....then wow

[Dr. Strangelove]

For those who don't know, Kadyrov is basically the dictator of Chechnya. It's technically part of Russia but for all intents and purposes Kadyrov runs Chechnya without much interference from Putin in exchange for peace there. He and his boys are utterly ruthless killers.

The BBC somehow got their hands on audio recordings between him and his second-in-command. The article isn't translated, unfortunately, but from what the reporter says there apparently was a lot of anger, maybe fury, among the rank and file when they got told Putin expected them to go fight in Ukraine.

[Cody_Russell]

Nice. If I was Musk, why not publicly offer a $1 Billion reward (1/220 of his net worth) to anyone in Russia that would end this madness? Try to divide from within. Avoid the look of a government offering this deal.

Glad to see the near universal support for Ukraine.