Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Dr. Strangelove]

Jon, since you brought up SWIFT earlier, Biden was just asked why that was left out of the sanctions he mentioned in his speech and he said our European allies didn't want to go down that route.

From what I read a few hours ago, the 4 countries specifically blocking the SWIFT thing are: Germany, Italy, Cyprus, and Hungary.

[Obi-Jon]

Digging around, economic pain from pulling Russia out from SWIFT will be felt by those nations far more than to the US due to the amount of trade with Russia. At least that's the story being pushed. I think it has something to due with 2014. When Russia invaded/annexed, I mean was welcomed into, Crimea, Russia stated that barring them from SWIFT would be considered a declaration of war. I think those 4 are just a bit scared.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Seeing reports of a very intense fight at Antonov Airfield which is just 15 minutes north of Kyiv. Russians took it earlier today and the Ukrainians are trying to drive them out. People believe it would be used to fly in special forces for ops in Kyiv (like assassinate or capture political/military leaders)

[Obi-Jon]

I would tell the 4 to come up with more and stronger sanctions if they don't want Russia's access to SWIFT removed. Without knowing the specifics, I can't say those undefined sanctions are 'tougher' than SWIFT. SWIFT is a vast messaging network used by banks to securely send and receive accurate information, such as money transfer instructions. More than 43 million transactions per day are sent by international finance. Most institutions use it as an order and transfer system, not just instructions. That's where it would hurt Russia.

I think of these sanction packages as a martial arts kick. What's being presented today is a groin kick, something that can be relatively easily deflected or blocked if its expected or anticipated. My preference is a SWIFT kick to the knee cap. Only takes about 80lbs/sq in to dislocate. It doesn't matter how big and bad you are, it's hard to fight or even stand when your lower leg is bending 90 degrees in the wrong direction. And very difficult to block, gotta jump back. Tell Europe if you're serious about ending the fight quickly, suck it up.

[Obi-Jon]

In stock news, the Moscow Exchange closed down 33%. The RTS, which is denominated in dollars, dropped 39%. That should make Putin's pals happy.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Per a Russian source that keeps track of these things, about 1700 anti-war protesters were arrested across Russia today (it's almost midnight in Moscow)

[Jeff Buchanan]

Some great reads today from the Economist that forecast some rough times ahead for global markets (most of which closed up today), supply chains and availability of essential commodities. Although Putin has been working to isolate Russia from any economic pain the West might impose, Russia still is heavily integrated into global trade and financial markets. The West can hurt him and Russia.

In the larger picture, journalists are writing about the pile of shit Putin has stepped into. He is already being judge harshly and former friends are bailing on him. Encouraging news comes from organizations that provide disaster relief and there is outrage that Putin has created a disaster of immense human suffering in Ukraine that is entirely on him. It's no act of God although Putin seems to think of himself as one in the same.

You've read this but it helps me cope to type it ..... Putin has ignored every norm of 21st century relations between states, every expected behavior of countries seeking a peaceful world order. The bottom line is this is a brass knuckles fight. The west can't bring bare hands to that fight.

Some will say that it is too risky to challenge Mr Putin—because he has lost touch with reality, or because he will escalate, miscalculate or hug China. That would itself be a miscalculation. After 22 years at the top, even a dictator with an overdeveloped sense of his own destiny has a nose for survival and the ebb and flow of power. Many Russians, unclear about a crisis that has come from nowhere, may be unenthusiastic about waging a deadly war against their brothers and sisters in Ukraine. That is something the West can exploit.

Accommodating Mr Putin in the hope that he will start to behave nicely would be more dangerous still. Even China should see that a man who rampages across frontiers is a threat to the stability it seeks. The freer Mr Putin is to advance today, the more determined he will be to impose his vision tomorrow. And the more blood will be spilled in finally getting him to stop.

[Da Geezer]

This. They are very deeply entrenched right now in all of our society's institutions, from academia to Corporate America. "Climate Change" has reached Too Big to Fail status.

What you say is true, but it is also true that the consequences of the green agenda are coming into full relief now. When the other pipelines from Russia to northern and central Europe were being built, the hope was that mercantilism would make Russia join the "family of nations". That didn't work. It turns out that Russia is indeed a gas station with a powerful army.

Russia accounts for about 1.5% of the total volume of "transactions" on SWIFT. But SWIFT is the way purchasers pay for their oil. Cutting Russia out of SWIFT would cause them to simply sit on their oil and gas. It is silly to assume that Putin has not covered his bases with China and has plenty of cash available to him to carry out the invasion. Call it just another loan in the Belt and Road initiative.

But Europe needs the oil and gas. At least a lot more than Russia needs currency.

[Da Geezer]

some good news:

Trudeau lifted the state of emergency today.

Behind the scenes, authorities were already easing off the use of some powers. The Royal Canadian Mounted Police advised financial institutions this past Monday they were free to unlock the financial accounts of individuals who organized or participated in the 23-day Ottawa protest, also known as Freedom Convoy 2022. The Canadian Bankers Association, which represents the country’s chartered banks, said Wednesday that members “acted quickly to unfreeze accounts.” WSJ

[Mike]

What you say is true, but it is also true that the consequences of the green agenda are coming into full relief now. When the other pipelines from Russia to northern and central Europe were being built, the hope was that mercantilism would make Russia join the "family of nations". That didn't work. It turns out that Russia is indeed a gas station with a powerful army.

Russia accounts for about 1.5% of the total volume of "transactions" on SWIFT. But SWIFT is the way purchasers pay for their oil. Cutting Russia out of SWIFT would cause them to simply sit on their oil and gas. It is silly to assume that Putin has not covered his bases with China and has plenty of cash available to him to carry out the invasion. Call it just another loan in the Belt and Road initiative.

But Europe needs the oil and gas. At least a lot more than Russia needs currency.

Germany was the least surprising name on the list of Euros that didn't want to kick Russia off SWIFT. They sold out.

[Jeff Buchanan]

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[Mike]

He already has a shitload. The first 90,000 people at each Huskers football game receives a complimentary package.

[Obi-Jon]

Per a Russian source that keeps track of these things, about 1700 anti-war protesters were arrested across Russia today (it's almost midnight in Moscow)

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-vladimir-putin-europe-russia-moscow-9a3eab8c8cb047254c82f1839ef77b9f

[Jeff Buchanan]

Western news source's need to exploit the shit out of this and magnify it at every opportunity across Europe. Fake the news, fake the fuck out of it. Place social media bots, insert covert operatives that stir shit up. Play Putin's game but better.

Regardless it won't be easy. Here's the most important part of the article:

But the (Russian) authorities were having none of that.

In Moscow and other cities, they moved swiftly to crack down on critical voices. Litvinovich was detained outside of her residence shortly after posting the protest call. OVD-Info, a rights group that tracks political arrests, reported that 1,745 people in 54 cities had been detained by Thursday evening, at least 957 of them in Moscow.

Russia’s Investigative Committee issued a warning Thursday afternoon reminding Russians that unauthorized protests are against the law.

Like I said, bullets in heads and Novachok are more effective than anti-war protests placards.

[THE_WIZARD_]

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Your sister gave me some of those last time I saw her...