Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Dr. Strangelove]

With this Ukraine thing, we're going to see all kids of posturing made up of flat out lies and bending the truth to shape a reality favorable to one side or the other. That we have journalists plugged into the emerging network of commercial Satellite based intelligence makes it harder for either side to lie. It's limitations however make it hard for this group pf journalists to look forward and reliably predict events, i.e., Russian forces will engage Ukrainian forces on X day at Y time. To do that sort of thing requires integration of all sources and analysis of them by intelligence experts. Journalists don't have that and aren't experts. Know the limitations and adjust your threshold of acceptance of war news as being accurate or not accordingly.

My take remains about the same. Putin's objective in Ukraine is political and short of actually engaging but he's using the threat of an invasion as leverage. Whatever the outcome, some believe, and I am among them, that Putin has harmed Russia in the short term. Whatever he achieves in the end game - most likely a foothold that he will work to expand over time in Eastern Ukraine and influence in Kiev through a negotiated settlement involving MinskII. What he loses on is an invigorated NATO that will increase surveillance of and resist increasing Russian influence in the former Soviet Satellite states.

Today even some of the invasion skeptics I follow think Putin is going in to some degree. Today they've begun a manufactured refugee crisis and have their propaganda trolls all out filming little orphans crying that they are forced to flee from the Ukrainians hellbent on "genocide". They blew up an empty Jeep and claimed it was an assassination attempt on the head of Donetsk security.

Putin moves close to 200k troops near the border and they expect the world to believe that Ukraine would choose that moment to launch a genocidal invasion of the Donbas.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Random stuff...

Lots of video circulating on Russian tv already of busloads of "refugees" fleeing the Donbas "war zone" for Russia. Observant viewers seem to be noticing most of the buses aren't even half full.

Seeing some reports that a lot of locals are grumbling over the evacuation order. "Evacuate? Why? Nothing's even happening!"

Putin has promised 10,000 rubles to every refugee arriving in Russia. Sounds generous until you convert the currency. It's about $130.

Less humorous, there are dark rumors floating that Russia plans to hit a few of these buses with artillery, claim the Ukrainians did it (they're genocidal!), and invasion is officially on.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Well, right now, anything is possible. If Putin crosses the boarder - if one Russian soldier puts his fucking foot across it - NATO has to swiftly implement every sanction including ending Nordststream they've threatened to implement. Putin may be egocentric enough that he perceives he's got to make good on his long standing objectives vis-a-vis Ukraine or face the humiliation that he got called on them by NATO. Unthinkable....... for him. The West's leadership doesn't think like that fucker does.

I read a study today that looked back on every pre-911 military crisis and it's impact on markets and economies. Every one of them produced steep declines with full recoveries by the end of the year in which they occurred. More recently, they've been less frequent but Desert Storm, while it produced steep declines in market values, economic conditions remained stable during the period of actual combat and markets fully recovered within 3 months of Bush's declaration of "Mission Accomplished."

My sense is that there will be serious hardships and pain for both sides involving the average Joe in Ukraine if Putin invades. No getting around that. Outside of that region, especially in Asia and the US, things will go on as usual. Putin may sense he gets his way but the fall-out for him, the Russian economy and the Russian people is going to be horrendous long term. Putin can go straight to hell and if he invades a lot of people will be calling just for that outcome.

[Jeff Buchanan]

It doesn't amount to much ...... like sending stealth bombers to drop thousand of pounds of munitions on exposed Russian troop formations and equipment would - the US and UK are calling out Russian GRU units for conducting cyber attacks on Ukrainian banks and Ukrainian defense department computers today. The disruptions were minor and services restored quickly but it was pointed out these are a "tell" signaling that the Russians are actively planning an invasion.

[THE_WIZARD_]

I'd like to drop a bomb on you...

[Dr. Strangelove]

lol

[Jeff Buchanan]

In case you missed this, Biden extended the PHE on Friday for another 90d (it's usual interval before they expire unless renewed). TBF, this is less a sign that the pandemic is still raging in the US than it is a way of removing administrative red-tape in program funding and management of federal level PH activities (e.g. funding and staffing for COVID testing) and regulation (e.g., masks in airports) within the states that came about early in the pandemic.

Nevertheless, for most Americans it increases COVID fear rather than decreasing it - what should be happening. Accordingly, it's a mixed and confusing message. Nothing new from the "premier" public health organization in the world the CDC. While only a handful of states are still operating under PHEs (give governors expanded authority to regulate, e.g., vaccine mandate for state government employees), wide spread reductions in state level ordered mitigation measures are underway (e.g., masks in schools).

There's plenty of evidence that governments should be moving towards an approach that views SARS2 as an endemic virus and managed as such. Health journalists, quoting experts in epidemiology and virology are writing extensively about that. Meanwhile, there's not much talk of doing that at the federal and state level, CA is an exception having recently passed into law steps that further that approach.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Whatever one feels about the importance of Ukraine, this is dumb politics for a Senate candidate struggling in Ohio. The Cleveland area is full of Ukrainian, Polish, Lithuanian, and other eastern European ethnicities, all of whom trend more Republican than western or southern Europeans. But they are also overwhelmingly anti-Russian.

[lineygoblue]

In case you missed this, Biden extended the PHE on Friday for another 90d (it's usual interval before they expire unless renewed). TBF, this is less a sign that the pandemic is still raging in the US than it is a way of removing administrative red-tape in program funding and management of federal level PH activities (e.g. funding and staffing for COVID testing) and regulation (e.g., masks in airports) within the states that came about early in the pandemic.

Nevertheless, for most Americans it increases COVID fear rather than decreasing it - what should be happening. Accordingly, it's a mixed and confusing message. Nothing new from the "premier" public health organization in the world the CDC. While only a handful of states are still operat

I always appreciate your posts regarding the pandemic, Jeff .. but the WHO looks like they want to see this thing continue indefinitely. They love supporting governments control over their people.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/the-who-warns-that-the-pandemic-is-not-over-and-the-world-should-expect-more-dangerous-variants-to-emerge/ar-AAU4icc?ocid=msedgntp

[Jeff Buchanan]

Whatever one feels about the importance of Ukraine, this is dumb politics for a Senate candidate struggling in Ohio.

Besides being "dumb," this guy's take is likely representative of a lack of understanding by Americans about what is going on over there and has been for close to a decade under Putin's leadership in Moscow. At this point, I have no doubt that Putin will invade Ukraine for the purpose of overthrowing the current government in Kiev. None. Imminently? No telling - it could be days, weeks, months or years away, but it's going to happen.

The reason for that is based in understanding how Putin thinks about Russia's place on the global stage. He's been talking about the oppression of Russians in Ukraine and all the former Soviet Satellite countries prior to 1990 for as long as Russian watchers and analysts have been watching and analyzing Moscow and Putin. He's framed what he perceives as ongoing genocide of Russian people and culture in the boarder states that served as a barrier to Western power and influence. His intent is to roll back this genocide and at the same time the influence of western ideals and democratic principals.

Put this decade long and fabricated argument being advanced by Putin that threatens all of Europe along with the efforts by the Chicoms, represented by Xi, to argue their system of governance - ruthless, authoritarian, anti-democratic - is better than anything the west offers, that being what America represents. The Chinese efforts to spread their brand of Communism stretches much farther than Taiwan, Hong Kong or Europe. It is a global operation with the same objectives as Russia's - ending western style freedoms and elected governments.

I don't think I can be anymore blunt about the real threat to freedom and democracy the coalescing of ideas being advanced by these two autocrats is. I've posted here that the threat of Putin's pursuit of a more influential Russia on the global stage, particularly in Europe and as leverage against western democratic ideals, is as dangerous as Germany's Nazism of the 30's and Imperial Japan's ultra-imperialism and nationalism. Putin's wish to advance Russian influence is backed up by the threat of a highly advanced and technologically modern military, and a willingness to employ it aggressively to obtain political objectives. Posters here scoffed at that notion joking about the military strength of Russia and the silliness of comparing Putin to Hitler. Xi and the Chicoms are equally capable and willing to force their brand of communism globally leveraging out western influence in the process - the notable difference is the tools used by the two leaders, China wielding an economic weapon just as powerful as Putin's tanks.

The problem for me is that while America descends into the distracting insanity of it's divisive race/gender based identity politics, it's global influence wanes, creates vacuums, all of them eagerly filled by the world's two leading autocrats, Xi and Putin. What looks like what will ultimately be the West's capitulation in Ukraine in the face of Putin's mobilization of significant military forces on that country's boarders, is going to happen. The argument goes, and I've heard it here, not a drop of American blood (add British, German or French to round out NATO) should be shed over Ukraine. Personally, I don't think sanctions will have the deterrent impact NATO allies think they will and NATO countries neither have the stomach or political will for the use of military force. Right. The blood of the West's soldiers will probably be spared but the costs in terms of the rise of autocracy and demise of democracy along with the liberalism that is it's fabric will be incremental and in the end game staggering.

[THE_WIZARD_]

There are a lot of people and entities that want this to continue because of the money and power. Starting to remind me of the Green movement. It's all about power, control and mula.

[Obi-Jon]

NoKo and Iran have had worse sanctions than what's projected to be in store for Russia and they're still doing whatever the fuck they want. Putin will take the economic body blow in order to have the Ukraine on a leash and be able to play the martyr to explain the simmering problems at home. Xi is watching with interest (he and Putin had a love fest a couple weeks back) to gauge the West's responses in preparation of taking Taiwan by force. Our last 5 years of having no international policy is starting to pay dividends for the commies.

[iam416]

Having “no international policy” was better than Obama’s ball-licking policy that gave Putin what he wanted and ball-licked the Ayatollah.

[Mike]

Being mired in Middle East boondoggles for 20 years left the country war-fatigued and uninterested in further engagement half a world away. Current politics reflects this attitude.

I wouldn’t mind a bombing campaign against Russian troops on the border tho. What are they gonna do to us militarily? They ain’t coming here. Seems like a great opportunity for the West to flex some muscle and put a dictator in his place. At least make taking Ukraine a costly endeavor.

[THE_WIZARD_]

War monger.