Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Mike]

BBB is increasingly looking like it could be dead. FWIW

Thank fucking god.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Some of the big COVID news this morning is about sports teams having a "surge" of team members testing positive for COVID and being placed in "COVID protocols." I have questions about these positive tests and you probably know exactly what they are. Let's just move past that.

There are two things we know with some confidence about Omicron: (1) it is more transmissible - about 4X. The rational implication is that there will be more local outbreaks of Omicron induced COVID involving larger numbers of people. (2) prior SARS2 infection alone is proving to not provide protection from becoming infected with SARS2, Omicron variant. So far, the unvaccinated, including those who have been previously infected, comprise 98% of new cases.

Here's what the MSM wants you to think the problem with that is: There will be a shit-ton of new cases. Health care systems, already stressed, will be overwhelmed. Will they be? While it is true that only about 5% of all COVID infections result in serious illness and hospitalizations, 35% of 330m (the US population) is over 1m and 5% of that is 50K, new COVID cases requiring hospitalizations. The case load for hospitals and their staffs will not be uniform across the US. We're told, that doctors are already worried about the logistics - staffing, medical supplies, pharmaceuticals - of caring for large numbers of COVID patients. The MSM wants you to believe that an increase in COVID cases requiring hospital care due to Omicron makes finding the medical care we expect in the US when people fall ill, unsustainable.

That's the unpleasant news the MSM wants you to hear. Here's a more rational viewpoint and one that doesn't get explained adequately: It looks like Omicron infection produces milder symptoms. The caveat is that so far, where the numbers are sufficient to draw conclusions, i.e., in SA and now in the UK, the larger percentage of new cases is in young, healthy people (I assume under 40 or 50). Meaning that, so far, at risk people aren't in those numbers of rapidly increasing new cases. Is it because the vax rates in these older, at risk individuals are higher? I think it is but we aren't provided with that information - the stuff I call context - to show that is, in fact, correct. That is obviously important as the 5% overall global figure of COVID cases requiring hospital level care may be closer to 2% in the current circumstance. That would reduce the demand on hospitals within the US by more than half.

What apparently is being debated at the national level in most countries is whether or not to impose stronger restrictions on mobility and social interaction due to the perceived need to head off the potential to overwhelm a country's HC system. What isn't getting analyzed and debated sufficiently are the numbers and analysis of them I provided above. If the actual impact on health care systems is significantly less in the current circumstance than we are being led to believe it will be, all this talk of closing things down and forcing less mobility and social contacts is ridiculously premature.

Oh, will the Orange Bowl between UGA and M be affected by a "surge" in new cases in Miami Dade Co., home of the OB? Will positive COVID tests among M or UGA wreck the contest? Well, first, it's FL. There's a law in effect there that prevents the OB from closing it's doors or for the county to order it shut down for the bowl game. Requiring testing, proof of vaccination or masks to enter the OB are unlawful in FL. I

Here's the second and harder question: t's hard to say how the BT and SEC will play this. They have different protocols. I suspect the protocols in place and agreed to by teams will be carried out. So, yes, there's potential some players may be unable to play on the basis of a positive COVID test. M needs to minimize that risk by first stressing the need for players to avoid high exposure risk situations and conducting frequent testing. Unfortunately, the Big requires players who test positive to sit for 21d. Going home for the Holidays increases risks. Not sure how Harbaugh will handle that.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Cleveland State cancelled their next two bball games. Apparently a lot of the team has it. The Browns are dealing with a major outbreak. So it's obviously going around Cleveland quite a bit right now.

Jeff- I saw something referencing this this morning. Omicron is significantly more transmissible because it replicates 70 times faster than Delta in the bronchial tubes. BUT it replicates 10 times slower than original covid in the lungs themselves, which ought to overall lead to much less serious illness.

Omicron found to grow 70 times faster than Delta in bronchial tissue | Coronavirus | The Guardian

[Mike]

Here's an interesting study from Politico that creates a scorecard for how each state has handled the pandemic. Each state was scored 1-100 in 4 categories: Health, Economy, Social well-being, and Education, which were then averaged together for their final score.

Surprisingly, Nebraska is in first place by a significant margin with an average score of 73 but there's plenty of time for them to fuck it all up and look like dumbasses in the end.

Notable states' ranking (avg. score):

National Villain, Florida: 15 (58)
California: 28 (54)
Ohio: 31 (52)
National Sweetheart, Michigan: 44 (43)
National Hero, New York: 45 (43)

https://www.politico.com/interactive...mic-scorecard/

[Dr. Strangelove]

Fed will double the speed that they taper, no change to interest rate just yet but a majority of the Fed Board says 3 rate hikes next year (no word on size of those hikes)

[THE_WIZARD_]

Thank fucking god.

BBB = Build Back Broke?

[THE_WIZARD_]

Here's an interesting study from Politico that creates a scorecard for how each state has handled the pandemic. Each state was scored 1-100 in 4 categories: Health, Economy, Social well-being, and Education, which were then averaged together for their final score.

Surprisingly, Nebraska is in first place by a significant margin with an average score of 73 but there's plenty of time for them to fuck it all up and look like dumbasses in the end.

Notable states' ranking (avg. score):

National Villain, Florida: 15 (58)
California: 28 (54)
Ohio: 31 (52)
National Sweetheart, Michigan: 44 (43)
National Hero, New York: 45 (43)

https://www.politico.com/interactive...mic-scorecard/

fuckin' Adrian Martinez
fuckin" Frosty

[Dr. Strangelove]

Not even covid wants to spend time in Nebraska

[THE_WIZARD_]

Not even covid wants to spend time in Nebraska

heh

I mean...STFU

[Jeff Buchanan]

Cleveland State cancelled their next two bball games. Apparently a lot of the team has it. The Browns are dealing with a major outbreak. So it's obviously going around Cleveland quite a bit right now.

Jeff- I saw something referencing this this morning. Omicron is significantly more transmissible because it replicates 70 times faster than Delta in the bronchial tubes. BUT it replicates 10 times slower than original covid in the lungs themselves, which ought to overall lead to much less serious illness.

Omicron found to grow 70 times faster than Delta in bronchial tissue | Coronavirus | The Guardian

One really has to read the Guardian article carefully - a usually pretty balanced news source. I think you know this but it's worth mentioning for those that don't watch this stuff closely. The test results are in vitro studies, not in vivo. Huge difference and the article mentions that in passing. I don't think you can draw conclusions about how the virus will react in the face of the innate and adaptive immune system or in vivo. That is also mentioned but, again, in passing. I'd predict this will be population cohort dependent and vary significantly among those age cohorts.

I still believe the best argument for pumping the breaks on the impact of Omicron and the dangers of government over-reaction to it's presence and spread is the one I outlined above.....it is ridiculously premature to be talking adding more stringent mitgation measures when disease impact is not yet fully understood. It may amount to something and that will be clear in a month or so or it may amount to nothing.

I have not seen anything in the research I'm reading that supports the actions that countries like Germany and Austria, among others in the EU, are taking. Supporters of them argue better to be proactive rather than waiting. The problem is not asking what we are waiting for and that is not yet known.

Boris Johnson's efforts to pass legislation in the British Parliament mandating vaccines and other stricter mitigation measures were strenuously opposed by his own party's membership. They passed because the liberals unanimously voted for it and so did a few conservatives. But the arguments in opposition were the same as I'm making above. It's too early

[Jeff Buchanan]

Fed will double the speed that they taper, no change to interest rate just yet but a majority of the Fed Board says 3 rate hikes next year (no word on size of those hikes)

The DJIA jumped 350 points after the fed's announcement. Apparently the sentiment is that the fed has made it clear it's going to be slow going on interest rate hikes.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Actually, the best thing that happened this week with respect to the US Economy is down-shifting on the BBB. That may actually be behind some of Wall Street's bullish sentiment.

The R leadership has made it clear that funding infrastructure improvements is an appropriate thing for Congress to do. My sense is that the voters - the conservative ones that have a brain - have let the R's they elected know the insane spending the illiberals have written into the damn thing is just utterly wrong.

[Obi-Jon]

The trash won't pass unless the filibuster rule is changed. I think Biden will be content to let the majority of it crater, he can shrug his shoulders to the left wing and say its not his fault. That's why it was soooo important to separate it from the infrastructure bill. If there's 20% of BBB that passes, I'll be surprised. Despite the red meat rhetoric of Biden being a leftist, he has no debt to, or love for, the extreme wing the D party.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Despite the red meat rhetoric of Biden being a leftist, he has no debt to, or love for, the extreme wing the D party.

The other option is that Joe doesn't know what the "extreme wing" of his own party is or know who is part of it.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Biden is lucky if he can square up to a toilet...