Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Dr. Strangelove]

Shut yer yammering maw

[THE_WIZARD_]

Wait 'til shaddup and STFU get here...you are in BIG trouble mister...

[iam416]

SYYM

[THE_WIZARD_]

shaddup

[Jeff Buchanan]

The morning read on COVID ........

There's an increase in new cases globally. I'm not sure that scary number is of much value as it lacks granularity. What's hard to sort out is exactly from what's available to the lay public what variant and in what group of hosts the increasing numbers are occurring. This is important in any rational assessment of the disease impact. Are we getting this in the lay press? Nope. Should be no surprise. Since I've been writing about this I've expressed frustration at the failure of the MSM to add context or otherwise provide meat on the bones of most of the headlines on COVID. Here's some things to think about:

Researchers are settling in on the theory that the virus passed to humans two years ago, possibly sooner, by the zoonotic pathway or animals to animals and then animals to people. Why is it important to find COVID case #1 and how that person developed the respiratory illness? It is the key to fighting future viruses of this type which will almost certainly afflict the human race down the road. This is not about fingering China. So far, there is general agreement among people studying this that Case #1 was a man in China who reported symptoms on December 9th and again on the 16th of 2019. He had no contact with the Wuhan lab but is believed to have been exposed by wild animals being sold in the Wuhan market we all know about.

Acknowledging that SARS2 probably originated in animals, infected by bats, who then became reservoirs for the evolution of the SARS2 to the form that eventually infected humans would improve efforts to build up the infrastructure and knowledge to stop a pandemic like the one produced by SARS2 from happening again. The toxic global politics, most all of it between the US and China, is preventing a better understanding of this transmission process that did occur in China but was not a manufactured bioweapon or the result of poor safety practices in the Wuhan lab doing gain of function experimentation.

Putting aside the importance of understanding the process so as to be able to confront future viral pandemics and turning to the increasing case numbers globally and in the US, particularly in the mid-west, who and where the increasing case numbers are is important in assessing the disease impact. I hold that the numbers are regional and in specific groups of hosts, namely the immune compromised and unvaccinated. The Omicron variant is proving to have an R(0) value of around 3 to 3.5 and an R(t) something a shade below that. That is much higher than the original virus (< 0.5) and Delta ( < 1.0). That explains the steep slope of new case numbers in SA. But elsewhere the increasing numbers of new cases in the US and Europe are of the Delta variety, are 95% among the unvaccinated and disease severity is highly age and co-morbid conditions correlated. Importantly, so far, Omicron, while it is more infectious (R values) is producing disease that is considerably less serious and more easily managed. What pisses me off is that that kind of data isn't being reported. All you have is "surge, surge, surge..... hospitals stretched to the limits" (whatever that means and there is a shit-ton of more specific context required for that statement to have meaning).

I'm not stepping back at all from the post I made up thread that Omicron will not have the disease impact that was and now recently has been experienced globally by it's predecessors. The primary reasons for that are effective vaccines and improved medical management of COVID. It is actually of little consequence to us which variant predominates and where. That is because what is being overly reported by the MSM in tones that give rise to fear regarding SARS2 would very likely look much like influenza if we were tracking and reporting on the disease impact of it to the extent those things are being done for SARS2. The scale is probably different (SARS2 > the Influenza A or B) or more people are getting infected with SARS2 than by Flu A, B but the graphs of risks and outcomes are becoming almost identical. Given more infections there is going to be higher rates of hospitalizations but so far, death rates are not changing much.

So carry on. To repeat, if you are under 50 and healthy enjoy the upcoming holidays with friends and for God's sake, don't skip a gathering because the host doesn't have HEPA filters in their AC system or has the windows closed becasue it's fucking 20 degrees outside. Go to football games. There is no evidence, NONE, that any of these were super-spreader events and the press is pissed off about that. If you're at risk for the obvious reasons, use common sense but at the same time, don't hide in your basement like the MSM would like you to believe you have to do.

[foxhopper]

My science says Fauci and company made this shit.

[THE_WIZARD_]

The Covid Boogeyman will just not die...

[Dr. Strangelove]

Story below is just bonkers. The two Georgia poll workers in the story opened a lawsuit against rightwing conspiracy website Gateway Pundit for accusing them of having processed thousands of "illegal votes" for Biden in Atlanta. They've been under constant harassment and threats since.

Kanye West publicist pressed Georgia election worker to confess to bogus fraud charges | Reuters

Kanye West Associate Pressured Poll Worker to Confess to Voter Fraud - Rolling Stone

[Jeff Buchanan]

SCOTUS rules that Texas Abortion law can be challenged in state court but refused to strike it down. It's an expected non-decision that avoids Roe. I think the Mississippi case will have to deal with Roe.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Texas Abortion Law appears to have been mostly allowed to stand...for now. Maybe for good. The only individuals the Court feels the abortion clinics can seek an injunction against are various state licensing boards. Thomas wouldn't have allowed them even that.

Anyways, challenging the constitutionality of the law itself will take 1 or 2 years and the Mississippi case will be decided long before then. I'm pretty confident at this point that Roe will be thoroughly reduced if not completely reversed. If that happens, they go so far as to end Roe completely, then any suit involving the Texas law is pointless, unless the Supremes want to comment more on the law's structure (they should!) rather than its merits.

[Dr. Strangelove]

But then again, if they overturn Roe as completely as is currently possible, Texas could just repeal SB8 and pass a very straight-forward abortion ban. Why bother fighting over your cockamamie private lawsuit law?

[Dr. Strangelove]

Wasn’t aware his popularity had plummeted this far. Yeesh. If you think Biden’s numbers are bad…

[THE_WIZARD_]

...

[lineygoblue]

See? He has video evidence.

[Dr. Strangelove]

At least 50 people were killed by tornadoes in Kentucky overnight. Especially bad in Mayfield, which is way out in the western tip of Kentucky