Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Da Geezer]

Social Security Payments to go up 5.9% next year, the largest increase in 40 years. Either the Ds are again buying votes or inflation is a lot higher than is being reported (or both).

[Mike]

I would suggest its both. It's also long past the time to raise the retirement age.

[Da Geezer]

I do NOT believe shutting down the oil & gas industry is good for the country and I am well aware it hasn't happened.

Do you favor increasing fossil fuel production, particularly natural gas?

Do you work in the O+G business?

[Dr. Strangelove]

Social Security Payments to go up 5.9% next year, the largest increase in 40 years. Either the Ds are again buying votes or inflation is a lot higher than is being reported (or both).

The reported inflation is around that. The CPI just came out today and it's 5.4%. The COLA to social security are required by law.

The big jump in inflation occurred during the spring. It's been more stable since the start of summer but also not getting better.

https://www.usinflationcalculator.co...flation-rates/

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/13/b...inflation.html

[Dr. Strangelove]

Do you favor increasing fossil fuel production, particularly natural gas?

Do you work in the O+G business?

Yes (for the most part) and yes, though less directly involved than I used to be

[lineygoblue]

Its nice to get a SS COLA but with what we're going to be paying for natural gas this winter, its already spent. There is no net gain.

[Da Geezer]

The Republican Senatorial Committee published these 42 reasons to vote against the $ 3.5 Trillion reconciliation bill.

1. Perpetuates labor shortage: Continues welfare benefits without work requirements for able-bodied adults without dependents at a time where there are 10.1 million job openings—more openings than there are people looking for work.
2. Commissions a climate police: Democrats stuffed $8 billion into the bill to commission a cabal of federally funded climate police called the Civilian Climate Corps (CCC) who will conduct progressive activism on taxpayers’ dime (pages 8, 21, and 926).
3. Pushes Green New Deal in our public schools: Requires funding for school construction be used largely on enrollment diversity and Green New Deal agenda items (page 55).
4. Pushes Green New Deal in our universities: Democrats include a $10 billion “environmental justice” higher education slush fund to indoctrinate college students and advance Green New Deal policies (page 1,935).
5. Forces faith-based child care providers out: (page 280).
6. Hurts small and in-home daycares: Requires pre-K staff to have a college degree. (page 303)
7. Includes new incentives for illegal immigration: Illegal immigrants will be eligible to take advantage of Democrats’ new ‘free’ college entitlement (page 92) as well be eligible for additional student aid (page 147) and the enhanced child tax credit (page 1,946).
8. Includes legislative hull for Biden’s vaccine mandate: Increases OSHA penalties on businesses that fail to implement the mandate up to $700,000 per violation and includes $2.6 billion in funding for the Department of Labor to increase enforcement of these penalties (page 168).
9. Gives unions near-total control: (page 175). (page 168).
10. Makes unions bigger and more powerful: The bill would subsidize union dues that would only serve to strengthen the influence of union bosses and not American workers (page 2323).
11. Pushes Democrats’ wasteful and confusing school lunch agenda: $643 million for, among other things, “procuring…culturally appropriate foods” (page 333).
12. Furthers radical abortion agenda: Does not include the Hyde amendment and would mandate taxpayers pay for abortions (page 198) & (page 336).
13. Drives up costs on Americans’ utility bills: Issues a punitive methane tax (page 367) and includes a tax on natural gas up to $1,500 per ton that could cost the American economy up to $9.1 billion and cost 90,000 Americans their jobs (page 368).
14. Includes dangerous & deadly green energy mandate: Effectively forces Americans to get 40% of their energy from wind, solar and other unreliable forms of energy within 8 years (page 392).
15. Includes kickbacks for the Left’s green energy special interest network: $5 billion for “environmental and climate justice block grants” (page 377) and another $100 billion in green energy special interest subsidies, loans and other carve outs.
16. Gives wealthy Americans tax credits: $222 billion in “green energy” tax credits will be given to those who can afford expensive electric vehicles and other “green” innovative products (page 1832).
17. Furthers Democrats’ social justice agenda: Includes “equity” initiatives throughout the bill and, in one instance, Democrats inserted “equity” language into a title which should have been focusing on the maintenance of the United States’ cyber security efforts (page 897).
18. Grants amnesty for millions of illegal immigrants: House Democrats have included in their reconciliation bill a plan to grant amnesty to around 8 million illegal immigrants at a cost of around $100 billion over ten years that would largely be spent on welfare and other entitlements (page 901). Trillions more would be spent long term on their Social Security and Medicare.
19. Opens border even wider: The bill would waive many grounds for immigration inadmissibility, including infection or lack of vaccination status during a Pandemic, failure to attend removal proceedings in previous immigration cases, and the previous renouncement of American citizenship. DHS may also waive previous convictions for human trafficking, narcotics violations, and illegal voting (page 903).
20. Increases visa limit: (page 905).
21. Grants fast-tracked green cards for those seeking middle-class careers in America: Language included in the bill exempts certain aliens from the annual green card statutory limits and has been described as a “hidden pipeline for U.S. employers to flood more cheap foreign graduates into millions of middle-class careers needed by American graduates” (page 910).
22. Includes pork for Nancy Pelosi: $200 million is earmarked for the Presidio Trust in Speaker Pelosi’s congressional district (page 933).
23. Increases energy dependence on OPEC, Russia and China: The bill prohibits several mineral and energy withdrawals (page 979). It overturns provisions included in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that authorized energy production in the Arctic that will result in 130,000 Americans losing their jobs and $440 billion in lost federal revenue (page 983) and the mineral withdrawals it prohibits would, ironically, include minerals necessary for renewable energy sources (pages 934, 940, 943).
24. Exacerbates the chip shortage: The bill would mandate the conversion of the entire federal vehicle fleet from internal combustion engines to electric engines at a time when there is a global microchip shortage and crippled supply chains (page 1,043).
25. Democrats’ feckless China bill is included: Concepts from the insanely weak Endless Frontier Act included, including $11 billion in research funding that will likely result in American intellectual property going to China (page 1079 – 1081).
26. Chases green energy pipe dreams: $264 million to the EPA to conduct research with left-wing environmental justice groups on how to transition away from fossil fuels (page 1063).
27. Fixes “racist” roads and bridges: (page 1183).
28. Punishes red states for failing to adopt Green New Deal provisions: Mandates “consequences” for conservative states that don’t meet the radical Left’s “green” climate standards while at the same time adding nearly $4 billion for “Community Climate Incentive Grants” for cooperating states (page 1179).
29. Includes new massive, bankrupting entitlement: The new paid leave entitlement would mandate workers get 12 weeks of paid leave and would cost $500 billion over ten years according to the CBO (page 1245). It would apply to those making up to half a million dollars a year (page 1254).
30. Advances a totalitarian and paternalistic view of the federal government: Includes grants for organizations to treat individuals suffering from “loneliness” and “social isolation.”
31. Further detaches individuals from employment and more reliant on government handouts: The bill spends $835 billion on welfare through manipulating the tax code [not including the expansions of Obamacare subsidies] (page 1943).
32. Tax benefits for the top 1%: The bill will possibly lift the SALT deduction cap meaning many of the top 1% wealthiest Americans would pay less in taxes.
33. Tax credit for wealthy donors who give to woke universities: The bill creates a new tax credit program that gives tax credits worth 40% of cash contribution that are made to university research programs (page 2094).
34. Expands worst parts of Obamacare: Obamacare’s job-killing employer mandate will become more severe by adjusting the definition of “affordable coverage” to mean coverage that costs no more than 8.5 percent of income rather than current law’s 9.5 percent of income (page 2041).
35. Increases taxes on Americans at every income level: $2 trillion in tax hikes will fall on those making under $400,000 per year, contrary to what the White House says. Individuals at all income levels will be affected (Ways and Means GOP).
36. Lowers wages for working families: The corporate tax rate will increase by 5.5%, meaning American companies will face one of the highest tax burdens in the world. According to analysis, two-thirds of this tax hike will fall on lower- and middle-income taxpayers (page 2110).
37. Penalizes marriage: The bill would permanently double the EITC’s marriage penalty on childless worker benefits (page 2036).
38. Imposes crushing taxes on small business: Guts the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act small business deductions that reduced pass-through entity taxes to keep them comparable to taxes imposed on corporations (page 2235) as well as hammer small businesses that file as individual tax earners with the 39.6% rate (page 2221) and Obamacare’s 3.8% tax on net investment income.
39. Crushes family businesses and farms: The bill would impose a 25% capital gains rate (page 2226) and makes alterations to the Death Tax including cutting the Death Tax exemption in half (page 2240).
40. Violates Americans’ financial privacy: $80 billion slush fund to hire an 87,000-IRS-agent army to carry out the Biden administration’s plan to review every account above a $600 balance or with more than $600 of transactions in a year. (page 2283).
41. Increases out of pocket costs for those who rely on prescription drugs: (page 2465).
42. Imports policies from countries with socialized medicine: (page 2349).

[Obi-Jon]

Most of that is nonsensical bs and standard GOP trash talk. How about my list instead?



1. Its not needed.

[Hannibal]

You don't think E&P companies laying down a huge amount of rigs during most of 2020 due to zero demand and temporarily negative prices has anything to do with it?

18 months ago on a tangentially-related product? Not much. The production of natural gas via fracking doesn't need $50 or $60 oil to be worthwhile. I know that the sudden overabundance of oil didn't help, but it was a temporary situation. I imagine that the economics weren't very good for the next few months, but the huge rut is gone.

There's a lot more to the energy supply than just the immediate effects of permitting. There is also infrastructure around the country and the willingness of investors to provide money for large projects. Biden has signalled very strongly that he is going to block any energy infrastructure and Wall Street right now won't give you any money for fossil fuel-based projects. Killing Keystone XL flushed millions of engineering and preparation work down the toilet. Nobody is getting burned by that again. The inevitable result is pretty obvious. It took fracking to get us below $5 on gas and it's going to take fracking to get us back there.

Anyhow, enjoy your higher heating bill this winter. Actually, I should say, your low heating bill. Energy prices are low now compared to where they are going to be when we are all filling up our tanks with reclaimed canola oil or liquid hydrogen.

Also, I'd recommend a different line of work. The Diversity Consultant industry, in particular, is booming.

[Obi-Jon]

Given the GOP raised the debt ceiling countless times to account for the $7.4T in additional debt Dear Leader saddled us with, the Repubs are in no position to lecture anyone on fiscal responsibility.

[Hannibal]

Fiscal responsibility is dead. It's now a question of whether you make the pig trough big enough for only the US or whether you expand it to the entire world.

It's also why we need to ditch every environmental fantasy as soon as possible and grow the shit out of the economy. We're going to need lots and lots of taxpayers.

[Dr. Strangelove]

18 months ago on a tangentially-related product? Not much. The production of natural gas via fracking doesn't need $50 or $60 oil to be worthwhile. I know that the sudden overabundance of oil didn't help, but it was a temporary situation. I imagine that the economics weren't very good for the next few months, but the huge rut is gone.

There's a lot more to the energy supply than just the immediate effects of permitting. There is also infrastructure around the country and the willingness of investors to provide money for large projects. Biden has signalled very strongly that he is going to block any energy infrastructure and Wall Street right now won't give you any money for fossil fuel-based projects. Killing Keystone XL flushed millions of engineering and preparation work down the toilet. Nobody is getting burned by that again. The inevitable result is pretty obvious. It took fracking to get us below $5 on gas and it's going to take fracking to get us back there.

Anyhow, enjoy your higher heating bill this winter. Actually, I should say, your low heating bill. Energy prices are low now compared to where they are going to be when we are all filling up our tanks with reclaimed canola oil or liquid hydrogen.

Also, I'd recommend a different line of work. The Diversity Consultant industry, in particular, is booming.

Wall Street won't throw money at the fracking industry any more because they got burned, badly, by investments made in the late 2000's and early 2010s. Maybe the technology will get there eventually, it's made progress already, but the industry greatly oversold just how quickly they would make their investment back. They also badly underestimated how steep the depreciation curves would be on horizontal wells. At least in certain regions. I'm not an engineer but everything I've heard over the years is that if a (horizontal) well doesn't make its money back within two years, it's likely to take closer to 30. Wall Street was not happy when most of wells drilled in the boom rush were towards the 30 year end of the spectrum.

You can blame Aubrey McClendon for a lot of that. Guy was a flim flam man at heart that built something closer to a pyramid scheme than a highly profitable company.

And that's how cycles work in the oil industry. It's the little companies that made most of the fracking innovations or discovered new plays but generally went bust before they could turn profitable or got eaten by bigger and bigger fish.

[Dr. Strangelove]

If you want a sense of drilling activity in Ohio, you can check out the Well Locator here. Every gas or oil well ever drilled in Ohio is mapped.

https://ohiodnr.gov/wps/portal/gov/odnr/discover-and-learn/safety-conservation/about-ODNR/oil-gas/oil-gas

One thing you'll notice is that the western half of Ohio, but for a few small pockets, is mostly worthless from an oil/gas standpoint. And the horizontal well activity that's taken place since 2010 has overwhelmingly been in just eight of the eastern-most counties in the state. Within that slice, generally speaking, the farther west you go the more oil and NGLs you get. Closer to the Ohio River is just straight dry gas. The one exception is that in the far southeast part of the play there is a very limited window where the Marcellus crosses into Ohio. In that area (in theory) you ought to be able to draw gas from the Utica and oil from the Marcellus.

[AlabamAlum]

Marcellus Utica was a great cover corner out of San Jose State. Very underrated 4th round pick.

[THE_WIZARD_]

...and the AA filibuster has begun...