Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Dr. Strangelove]

The Dems who have been around long enough to know what it's like being in the House minority should sit the young Progs down and let them know they will soon be as relevant as MTG and accomplish nothing but tv hits all day if they scuttle the infrastructure deal.

Manchin cannot be primaried. Progs who want to defeat him are lunatics. Sinema, I think, is a different story. Hassan is in danger if Sununu is the R candidate but Trump may be lending the Dems a helping hand by talking up some other MAGA moron instead (can't remember the guy's name, but it ain't Sununu).

[Mike]

Like Talent says, the real intrigue is whether we can get the actual infrastructure bill through without the unicorn package as well. If it’s a package deal, I’d prefer the whole thing collapse.

Infrastructure has wide bipartisan support. Guaranteeing everyone a lifetime supply of security blankets does not.

[iam416]

Mike:

If I had to guess, what McConnell probably wants is twofold: (1) first and foremost, to not be associated with raising of the debt ceiling and to use that against Ds politically; and (2) force the Ds to use reconciliation -- as DSL noted, I think you're limited in the times you can use reconciliation in a given period (I haven't a clue what the actual rules are), but they may only have one more match to burn for awhile and they want to save that for the Progs $3.5T bullshit.

But, mostly it's (1) -- it's an opportunity to use easy to understand statements against the Ds in 2022. What the Rs would be implying would not be true, but when has that stopped either party? What is true is "MAGGIE HASSAN VOTED TO RAISE THE DEBT CEILING!!!!! (in dark voice)"

That is, incidentally, why the Ds want Rs to come along.

[iam416]

The Dems who have been around long enough to know what it's like being in the House minority should sit the young Progs down and let them know they will soon be as relevant as MTG and accomplish nothing but tv hits all day if they scuttle the infrastructure deal.

Manchin cannot be primaried. Progs who want to defeat him are lunatics. Sinema, I think, is a different story. Hassan is in danger if Sununu is the R candidate but Trump may by lending the Dems a helping hand by talking up some other MAGA moron instead (can't remember the guy's name, but it ain't Sununu).

Sinema MAY be primaried AND she also may get flat out beat in the general if she goes Prog. Hassan is a fuckton of trouble, IMO. Her best hope would be if DJT fucks up the primary. But if she's running against Sununu then I think she'll lose. I also think Sununu is plenty strong to hold off a primary challenge unless it turns into some sort of anarchy.

But to the larger point -- I'm not so sure the Progs are going to fall in line.

[iam416]

Like Talent says, the real intrigue is whether we can get the actual infrastructure bill through without the unicorn package as well. If it’s a package deal, I’d prefer the whole thing collapse.

Infrastructure has wide bipartisan support. Guaranteeing everyone a lifetime supply of security blankets does not.

Yeah, the way we spend on infrastructure if fucking ridiculous. It's not a matter of "what needs fixed or done" -- it's matter of "how much can we pass!" -- I'd be rather amazing if they actually took the time to come up a list of projects that need and then figure out how much money is needed.

Eh, whatever. The infrastructure stuff is meh. It's certainly not worth the preposterous Prog Bill.

[iam416]

Of the polls that I've seen recently here's how'd I'd rate where things will be in 2022:

Hassan -- TROUBLE
Whitmer -- Uncomfortable, but ahead and eventually winning (+1 or 2).
McAuliffe -- Comfortable (+6 or more).

[crashcourse]

looked like a stampede all those staffers trying to clear the room of the press when biden was doing the photop with johnson yesterday

[Dr. Strangelove]

Mike:

If I had to guess, what McConnell probably wants is twofold: (1) first and foremost, to not be associated with raising of the debt ceiling and to use that against Ds politically; and (2) force the Ds to use reconciliation -- as DSL noted, I think you're limited in the times you can use reconciliation in a given period (I haven't a clue what the actual rules are), but they may only have one more match to burn for awhile and they want to save that for the Progs $3.5T bullshit.

But, mostly it's (1) -- it's an opportunity to use easy to understand statements against the Ds in 2022. What the Rs would be implying would not be true, but when has that stopped either party? What is true is "MAGGIE HASSAN VOTED TO RAISE THE DEBT CEILING!!!!! (in dark voice)"

That is, incidentally, why the Ds want Rs to come along.

I think there's a pretty good chance Mitch is going with (1) but as I noted I am skeptical how effective that extremely Koch Brothers messaging is anymore. Maybe in New Hampshire though, I'll grant you that.

It is, of course, amusing to see dozens of Republican Senators who gave Trump three debt ceiling increases now caution against the spiraling federal debt. But that's politics.

[Mike]

They always raise the debt ceiling. If McConnell were to somehow engineer a vote that didn't raise the ceiling, then the Rs would own the fact that the United States defaulted on debt for the first time in its history. That ain't happening either. The debt ceiling stuff is all theater. The meat and potatoes is the showdown between the socialists and moderate Ds.

[lineygoblue]

That's why I think when it comes to clicking 'yes' or 'no', Manchin and Sinema will toddle along with the rest of the D's, no matter what the package is. First and foremost, they are Dems. They won't forget that.

[iam416]

They’re not signing on to 3.5. Maybe 2.5 or 2. But no way on 3.5.

[Da Geezer]

I am not very knowledgeable about reconciliation but I think you can only use it so many times a year. The ceiling is coming up much sooner than any Dem reconciliation package is probably going to be ready so it's "possible" (again, I am not clear on the rules) McConnell wants to force the Dems to take their bite at the apple to pass a quick CR and debt ceiling increase instead of passing the infrastructure & additional $3.5T plan. I could be wrong about the rules and wrong about Mitch's intentions. He may be holding out for some concession instead.

I believe reconciliation can be used once per fiscal year (Oct 1 starts the fiscal year). It applies only to budgetary matters where the filibuster is not available. This $ 3.5 T socialist package would never pass muster with any reasonable parliamentarian.

That said, IMO Mitch should try to delay the vote on the whole package until after the 2022 elections. Let the election be a referendum on the green new deal and the whole welfare project. To get a delay would be the best conceivable outcome for the Rs. If the Ds win, so be it. But I doubt anyone here thinks that will happen.

[Dr. Strangelove]

That said, IMO Mitch should try to delay the vote on the whole package until after the 2022 elections. Let the election be a referendum on the green new deal and the whole welfare project. To get a delay would be the best conceivable outcome for the Rs. If the Ds win, so be it. But I doubt anyone here thinks that will happen.

lol...whoever came up with "let the next election be a referendum on the election we just had" was a genius. We already consider it "tradition" to do no significant legislation in even-numbered years (cuz election!). Now we're gonna cut out the last four months of every odd-numbered year too?

[Mike]

Geezer, that’s all fine and good but Schumer sets the agenda in the Senate. It all comes down to whether or not Manchin and/or Sinema pump the breaks. I tend to agree with our friend south of the border that the package will get trimmed down from $3.5 to $2ish.

And what a difference a decade makes that a trillion here or there is just playing on the margins.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Some good reporting this morning on what's at stake with the the combo package of the $1T infrastructure stuff and the progressive's $3.5T give away free shit stuff. Well, maybe "combo" is the wrong term but the progressives are demanding they be linked so, for all intent and purpose it is a combo package. The reporting confirms that Mitch wants the D's to own both the threat of a related government shut down, increased spending through an increased debt ceiling (albeit to cover the cost of already approved legislation) and the free shit bill.

It's a correct characterization of the current government that the D's are running it and they can do just about whatever they want to do even if they don't have the 60 votes in the Senate to push the Biden agenda (the entirety of what constitutes the legislation behind it) through to the president's desk.

One not so much talked about issue is that projected revenue short falls associated with these two bills is that those shortfalls are a result of Trump's tax cuts. I'm not hearing this talked about as a bargaining chip only that Biden "wants to increase taxes." Still goes to McConnell's position on this if the D's want it, they'll own the cost outcomes.